Public Health Preparedness from Implications of Climate Change Taiwans Experiences and Global Perspe

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Public Health Preparedness from Implications of
Climate Change- Taiwans Experiences and Global
Perspectives

• Shu-Hua Lin1 , Chwan-Chuen King2
• Chung-Ming Liu1
• 1 Global Change Research Center,
• National Taiwan University (NTU)
• 2 College of Public Health, NTU
• August 20, 2008
• Bangkok, Thailand

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Outline

• I. Global Perspectives of Climate Change
• II. Climate Change and Public Health in General
• III. How to Use Findings of Climate Research to
• Improve Surveillance of Infectious
  Diseases
• IV. Public Health Preparedness
• V. Recommendations and Future Efforts

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Whats Climate Change?

• Significant change in long-term ensemble
  weather, including temperature, precipitation
  and wind patterns. The duration is from decades
  to millions years.
• The recent usage of climate change refers to
  changes in modern climate

Source IPCC AR4 2007
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Global Temperature Changes from 1906 to 2005
Anthropogenic Natural forcing
Natural forcing
0.74C/century from 1905-2006
FAQ 9.2, Figure 1. Temperature changes relative
to the corresponding average for 1901-1950 (C)
from decade to decade from 1906 to 2005 over the
Earths continents, as well as the entire globe,
global land area and the global ocean (lower
graphs). The black line indicates observed
temperature change, while the coloured bands show
the combined range covered by 90 of recent model
simulations. Red indicates simulations that
include natural and human factors, while blue
indicates simulations that include only natural
factors. Dashed black lines indicate decades and
continental regions for which there are
substantially fewer observations. Detailed
descriptions of this figure and the methodology
used in its production are given in the
Supplementary Material, Appendix 9.C.
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Is Climate Change Happening?

• Increasing surface temperature
• Changing precipitation pattern
• Melting glaciers/Ice sheets
• Rising sea-level
• Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme
  events
• Heat wave
• Drought
• Extreme rainfall
• Tropical cyclones (Typhoon)

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Observed Current Climate Change - Taiwan and
Global Data
Taiwan observed warming trend (C/century)
1960-2005
0.74C/century from 1905-2006
Since 1960 1.8 mm/yr Since 1993 3.1 mm/yr
Since 1978 -2.7 per decade Summer -7.4 per
decade
IPCC AR4 2007
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Temperature Trends of South East Asia Cities
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Precipitation Trends of South East Asia Cities
Laos
Philippines
Vietnam
91mm/yr 0.07day/decade
63mm/yr 0.13day/decade
23mm/yr 0.11day/decade
Philippines
Bangkok, Thailand
24mm/yr 0.02day/decade
1.3mm/yr 0.16day/decade
Songkhla, Thailand
Malaysia
Malaysia
9mm/yr 0.29day/decade
-2.2mm/yr 0.05day/decade
15mm/yr 0.35day/decade
Data based on WMO station observation
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Direct Impacts of Climate Change on Public Health
Public Health Impacts
Climate change
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Human Contribution to European Heat Wave of 2003.
Stott et al (2005) Nature 432, 610-314
Double length of western European summer heat
waves since 1880. Della-Marta et al (2007)
Journal of geophysical research 112, D15103,
doi10.1029/2007JD008510
                                                
       The summer heat wave of 2003 seen by infra
red camera from space. Source Met Office
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Trends in More Frequent and Intense Tropical
Cyclones were observed over Past 30 yrs and the
Trend May Last as Global Warming (Webster et al
2005, Science) .
Tropical cyclone frequency. (2005). In
UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library.
http//maps.grida.no/go/graphic/tropical-cyclone-f
requency.
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Floods
Droughts
???????????,?????(Big Dry)???????????????(Getty
Images)
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Secondary Impacts of Climate Change on Public
Health
Environment Change
Public Health Impacts
Climate change
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From website- http//www.grida.no/climate/vital/20
.htm
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The Major Impacts of Climate Change Related to
Public Health

• Food insecurity
• Poverty, malnutrition
• Erosion of Coastal and low-lying areas
• Water quality and supply especially on Megadeltas
  cities
• Shortage of water resources, quality and hygiene
• Water-borne diseases
• Water-washed diseases
• Ecological System change
• vector-borne disease
• Avian Influenza
• Dengue fever

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Ecological System Change

• Bird Migration may change as climate change, some
  species may cope with winter time of breeding
  area.
• Mosquitoes may spread, so do mosquito-borne
  diseases

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An Empirical Model on Climate and Global Risk of
Dengue in 2085
15 billion people at risk in 1990 ( 30)
56 billion people at risk in 2085 (52)
Chwan-Chuen King Institute of Epidemiology
College of Public Health National Taiwan
University
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What would we do?

• Impact assessments
• Preparedness
• Pre-warning system for policy makers
• Monitoring/warning system
• Enhance international cooperation

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Strategy for PH to against climate change
Avian Influenza Influenza-Like Illness Dengue
fever etc.
Link climate system to epidemic disease
transmission
Impact assessments
Thresholds
Adaptation
Preparedness 1 Pre-Warning System
Convert climate variants to indicators of
potential threatens signals
Suggestions on PH infrastructure, policy making
etc.
Once outbreaks still happen
Preparedness 2 Monitoring Warning System
The Hospital Emergency Department-based Syndromic
Surveillance System (ED-SSS) Air-pollution and
Virus sample Collection
Build bigger data polls for interacted studies
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Recommendations and Future Efforts

• Encourage Inter-disciplines studies
• Enhance International cooperation on studies
• Improve Monitoring System for data acquaintance
  and sharing

A Global Issue, we should all face it together.
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Thanks for your attentions!! Question?