DIGITAL DELIVERY Understanding your choices

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DIGITAL DELIVERYUnderstanding your choices

• Philip Laven
• Director, Technical Department
• European Broadcasting Union
• EBU Radio Assembly, Dublin
  20 April 2007

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PREDICTING THE FUTURE

• This advertisement for a flat-panel TV
  andelectronic-shopping appeared in the British
  magazine Lilliput in October 1945
• It is OK to predict what
• But never try to predict when

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RADIOS NEW CENTURY

• The 21st Century has another 92 years to go
• what will happen in the next 50 years?
• what will happen in the next 100 years?
• You may think that it is impossible to answer
  such questions
• but long-term predictions are inherently easier
  that predicting what will happen next month
• I will make predictions for the next 50 years
• please invite me back in 2057 to check if I am
  right or wrong . . . . .

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IN THE BEGINNING . . . .

• In 1995, streaming audio arrived on the Internet
  in the form of RealAudio 1.0
• It claimed to offer AM quality sound, but the
  quality was very variable - typically more like
  short-wave reception on a bad day
• One senior broadcaster said
• Listeners used to FM and CDs will not tolerate
  the poor quality offered by the Internet
• Most broadcasters felt that audio over the
  Internet was neither a threat nor an opportunity

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AUDIO VIDEO VIA THE INTERNET

• Just 12 years later, almost all EBU Members offer
  substantial services via the Internet
• comprehensive web sites
• audio
• video (even the radio broadcasters . . . )
• live relays of broadcast services
• on-demand access to previously broadcast
  programmes
• podcasting

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DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES

• The Internet is a disruptive technology -
  similar to the telegraph, steamships, cars, radio
  and TV
• Disruptive technologies are often ignored or
  dismissed by incumbents until it is too late
• However, do not believe everything you are told
• James Hall, Andersen Consulting, January 2000
• The greatest challenge is to understand that the
  rate of change is so fast that to do nothing is
  worse than almost anything else you could do

RUBBISH !
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OPTIMISM

• Beware of predictions by technical people!
• typically far too optimistic about timescales
• Some technological developments could not have
  been foreseen 20 years ahead
• ? disruptive technologies
• But some developments are PREDICTABLE

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PRICE TRENDS
Random-access memory
Factor of 2 in 18 months
Hard disks
Factor of 2 in 12 months
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EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

• For a constant price (e.g. 100), the storage
  capacity doubles every 18 months
• A factor of 2 every 18 months is equivalent to
• a factor of 10 every 5 years
• a factor of 100 every 10 years
• The long term effects of Moores Law can be
  dramatic
• the computer industry has been revolutionised by
  the falling costs of storage (hard disks,
  random-access memory)

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iPod Shuffle

• iPod Shuffle (2nd generation) on sale for 75
• 1 GByte of solid-state memory (not a hard disk)
• Enough to provide 24 hours of non-stop music

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MORE PREDICTIONS

• If storage capacity doubles every 18 months, what
  will future generations of 75 media players be
  like?
• Year Storage capacity Continuous play
• 2007 1 GigaByte 1 day
• 2017 100 GigaBytes 100 days
• 2027 10 TeraBytes 25 years
• 2037 1 PetaByte 2,500 years
• 2047 100 PetaBytes 250,000 years
• 2057 10 ExaBytes 25 million years

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INTERNET USERS
Population of the world
17 May 2004
Factor of 2 every 12 months
BEWARE OF PRACTICAL LIMITS
Source Nua (http//www.nua.com)
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MY WRONG PREDICTION

• At the 1981 launch of the audio CD, I told a
  journalist that
• the CD would be successful despite its
  complexity (disc rotating at 1500 r.p.m., laser,
  tracking servos, digital processing, etc.)
• the CD would be replaced by solid-state memory
  (no moving parts, no lasers, etc.) în about 5
  years . . .
• The iPod Shuffle suggests that I was right about
  the technology BUT wrong about the timing!

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THE NEXT 50 YEARS

• THREE KEY TRENDS
• Personalisation (What content? When?)
• Mobility/portability (Wherever I am)
• Globalisation (Where is the content?)

• TWO BASIC FUTURES
• Wireless society
• Storage society

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WIRELESS SOCIETY

• Optical fibres have replaced all telephone lines
• All homes have high speed (1000 Mbit/s) access
• Personal devices will be always connected by
  wireless
• high speed ( 1000 Mbit/s) when near short-range
  wireless networks
• lower speed (100 Mbit/s) in rural areas

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STORAGE SOCIETY

• Optical fibres have replaced all telephone lines,
  but one-to-one wireless communication is limited
  by spectrum scarcity (unless you are very rich)
• All homes have high speed (1000 Mbit/s) access,
• Storage of data is so cheap that you never throw
  anything away
• Intelligent agents (software)
• automatically obtain interesting content
• produce catalogues of content stored on home
  servers (and suggest options for you)

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PERSONAL MEDIA PLAYERS

• Wearable devices (computers)
• converged devices (audio, video, text)
• small folding screen (A4 size) or can relay
  signals to home audio/video systems
• huge storage capacity
• controlled by voice or eye commands

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CONTENT

• Access to content libraries audio, video,
  text(anything ever published or broadcast)
• No more printed books, newspapers, magazines
• Broadcasting restricted to live events (sports
  and news) and, perhaps, soap operas
• All documentaries, drama and comedy shows
  available only on-demand
• early experience with Personal Video Recorders
  indicate that TV viewers take control of when
  they view content
• Will radio survive the enhanced competition?

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WHO PAYS?

• Both futures (wireless and storage society)
  require high performance networks
• Who will pay for this infrastructure?
• Today, the Internet appears to be free
• the growing demand for bandwidth requires heavy
  investment by companies (which need to make
  profits) ? Net Neutrality

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WHO PAYS?

• Who will pay for the content?
• Consumers will have to pay
• probably via subscription or targeted advertising
• not via mass market advertising
• will free-to-air services disappear?
• Niche markets might survive
• only if they are profitable

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PAYING FOR CONTENT

• Most predictions of the future assume that the
  market will provide what the public wants
• Free-to-air radio TV services are currently
  dominant
• Subscription services have been successful in TV
• Subscription radio?
• Current funding arrangements for broadcasting
  will be in trouble in the longer term
• advertising
• licence fees or government grants

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UNIVERSALITY

• Universality is one of the fundamental principles
  of public service broadcasting
• universality of coverage
• serving all sectors of the public, irrespective
  of their ability to pay
• The danger is that new technologies discriminate
  against the poor and under-privileged
• do you have the latest technology?
• do you understand how to use it?
• can you afford to pay for on-demand services?

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PREDICTIONS

• Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895
• Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible
• Lord Kelvin, 1897
• Radio has no future
• Decca Records rejecting the Beatles, 1962
• We don't like their sound. Groups
  of guitars are on the way out

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AND MORE PREDICTIONS

• Internal memo, Western Union, 1876
• This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be
  seriously considered as a means of communication.
  The device is inherently of no value for us.
• HM Warner, Warner Bros, 1927
• Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?

INCUMBENTS BEWARE!
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RADIO IS SPECIAL . . . .

• Commercial broadcasting can be successful
• but competition will increase dramatically
• Broadcasting is not simply about maximising
  profits
• Traditional radio is important because it
• offers immediacy (news, information)
• is simple to use
• requires no special equipment
• is cheap for consumers

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MOBILITY PORTABILITY

• Most radio listening is a secondary activity
  (whilst you drive, read or do household chores)
• Radio is essentially MOBILE or PORTABLE
• in cars, buses, trains, walking or jogging
• moving a radio from room to room (or having a
  separate radio in each room)
• Digital systems must offer excellent reception on
  mobile and portable radios
• Some digital radio systems can be used only with
  a fixed satellite antenna or, even worse, through
  your TV set or computer

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NATURE OF BROADCASTING

• The transition from analogue to digital
  broadcasting is crucial and inevitable
• But digital transmission does not change the
  essential nature of broadcasting
• still a one-to-many, one-way service
• digital offers more services, better quality
  (more of the same)
• more services ? fragmentation of audiences
• Other delivery systems offer entirely new
  features, such as on-demand services
• not possible with broadcasting

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ONE-TO-ONE

• One-to-one systems (e.g. the Internet, podcasting
  and 3-G mobile phones) have a fatal flaw
• the cost of delivery is determined by the number
  of listeners or viewers
• double the audience, double the cost
• you can become the victim of your success
• increased delivery costs means that less money is
  available for content creation

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DELIVERY COSTS

• In traditional broadcasting, the delivery cost is
  independent of the number of users
• broadcasters typically spend less than 10 of
  their budgets on delivery
• Telcos and mobile phone operators have just
  realised that one-to-many services are
  technically and financially attractive
• e.g. DVB-H, DMB, MediaFlo, etc.
• In effect, they have rediscovered broadcasting!

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CONTENT CREATION

• Creating high quality content is expensive
• Moores Law does not apply to people (especially
  creative people!)
• Broadcasting has been successful because the
  costs of creation and delivery are shared across
  large audiences
• Fragmentation of audiences threatens the ecology
  of broadcasting
• cheap programmes from the archives can help, but
  you must keep creating new high quality content .
  . . .

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ARCHIVES

• Broadcasters archives are crucial for the future
• new linear digital radio channels based on
  material from your archives
• supplying on-demand services to the public
• Commercial broadcasters do not have substantial
  archives and are at a competitive disadvantage
  compared with public service broadcasters

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TECHNICAL STANDARDS

• The great thing about standards is that there are
  so many to choose from
• Mae West, film star
• When choosing between two evils,
• I always pick the one I never tried
  before

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TECHNOLOGY CHOICES

• Broadcasters will have many new ways of
  delivering their content to the public
• an all significant platforms policy is sensible
  but you must avoid spending too much money on
  delivery
• if you have a fixed budget, every extra 1000
  spent on delivery means 1000 less for content
  creation
• Broadcasters should concentrate on one-to-many
  delivery systems and limit their exposure to
  one-to-one systems

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PRINCIPLES

• Digital radio services
• must not be inferior in any respect to analogue
  radio services
• must offer significant benefits for consumers
• Digital systems must permit
• simulcasting of all (or most) EXISTING services
• public service AND commercial broadcasters
• attractive NEW services, such as
• additional audio programming
• data and/or multimedia services

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MOBILE PHONES

• Mobile phones will soon include TV facilities
• Will radio be ignored in the future?
• Market research in Italy on 3-G phones showed
  surprising amounts of time spent listening to FM
  radio rather than high value video services
• Why?
• 3-G phones have Radio on the initial menu
• you can listen to radio whilst walking in the
  street
• it is dangerous to watch TV whilst walking in the
  street (especially in Rome)

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CONCLUSIONS

• One-to-many delivery systems (such as DAB and
  DRM) enhance the existing benefits of radio
• One-to-one delivery systems offer on-demand
  services that cannot be delivered by broadcasting
• Broadcasters can justify expenditure on content
  production (only if they can maintain substantial
  one-to-many audiences)
• Broadcasters need to balance the audience
  benefits of one-to-one systems against the
  financial disadvantages
• Content creation is difficult to finance . . .

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WHERE IS THE CREATIVITY?
One million monkeys

One million typewriters

The complete works of Shakespeare
The Internet has disproved this theory!