Title: What S
1Swaps and Other Derivatives
NAST Treasury Management ConferenceDecember 5-7,
2004Doubletree Paradise ValleyScottsdale,
Arizona
Presented by
2Todays Agenda
- Opening the Black Box of Swaps
- Hedging Debt Issuance with Swaps
- Swaptions and Embedded Options
- Credit Exposure Associated with Swaps
- Floating Rate Exposure with Swaps
- Ongoing Monitoring of Swaps
3- Opening the Black
- Box of Swaps
4Swap Market Pricing
Comparative Yield Curves
As of 11/29/04 and Includes 25 basis points for
liquidity and remarketing
5Swap Market Pricing
- The LIBOR Swap Curve Is Derived By Adding A
Swap Spread To The - Treasury Yield Curve.
LIBOR Swap Rate
Maturity
Treasury Yield
Swap Spread
As of 11/30/04
6Swap Market Pricing
- The BMA Swap Curve Reflects Current Long-Term
Taxable Interest Rates and Credit Spreads and
Future Expected Short-Term Taxable / Tax-Exempt
Ratios.
(C)
(B)
LIBOR Swap Curve(A B)
(A)
BMA Swap Curve (A B) x C
Years to Maturity
On-the-Run Treasury Rate
LIBOR Indexed Swap Spreads
BMA/LIBOR Percentage
As of 11/30/04
7Swap Market Pricing
- The BMA Swap curve is derived by multiplying a
percentage to the LIBOR swap curve
As of November 30, 2004
As of January 3, 2002
BMA Percentage
BMAPercentage
Maturity
Maturity
- The BMA Percentage represents the markets
expectation of the future BMA / 1-Month LIBOR
ratio.
8Swap Market Pricing
Mid Market Rate Execution Cost Credit
Reserve Profit All-In Swap Rate
9Swap Market Pricing
- Indirect Factors which Influence Swap Pricing
- Supply of Bonds
- Demand for Bonds
- Hedging Activity (e.g. corporate issuance)
- Credit Perceptions (e.g. Long-Term capital
situation) - Mortgage Prepayments
- Etc.
10- Hedging Debt Issuance
- with Swaps
11New Market Environment Rising Interest Rates
- The Federal Reserve began tightening the Fed
Funds Rate at the June 30th FOMC meeting in
response to signals of a strengthening economy. - Bear Stearns Economist is currently projecting
sharp increases in rates - Federal Funds target rate to 3.80 by the end of
2005 - Ten-year Treasury rate to 5.80 by the end of 2005
Historical Interest Rates and Bear Stearns
Projection
Yield
Bear StearnsProjectedIncreases
10-Year Treasury
Fed Funds Target Rate
12Rate Lock - General
- A rate lock is designed to hedge an Issuers
interest cost for a future issue of bonds. - The rate lock mechanics include locking in a rate
prior to bond pricing and, at pricing, an
exchange of payments which reflect the subsequent
change in rates - The Issuer receives a payment from the provider
if the actual rate is higher than the locked rate - The Issuer makes a payment to the provider if the
actual rate is lower than the locked rate - The amount of the payment is intended to equal
the present value of the increase or decrease in
interest rates vs. the locked rate
Rate Lock Mechanics
Potential Outcomes
One Time Payment(If index is
Index () Payment by Bear Stearns Payment by
Issuer
Issuer
Swap Counterparty / Dealer
YIELD ()
Locked Rate ()
One Time Payment(If index is locked rate)
ActualRates
PV ()
Locked Rate
PV ()
Proposed Bonds
Bond Pricing
Rate Lock Execution
TIME
13Rate Lock General
- Rate lock contracts are based on objective market
indices rather than the Issuers actual assumed
market-based bond rate. - Rate lock agreements, therefore, do not guarantee
the Issuers actual market yield on its bonds. - The Issuers effective interest rate at bond
closing is equal to the locked index rate plus or
minus the issuers trading differential vs. the
index. - The Issuer maintains the risk that its bonds,
when issued, will trade at a different spread to
the hedged index (i.e., the Issuer has basis
risk).
14Hedging Alternatives
- There are a number of alternatives that enable
Issuers to hedge the interest cost associated
with future issuance of debt. - MMD Rate Lock
- BMA Forward Starting Swap
- LIBOR Forward Starting Swap
15Rate Lock Cost vs Basis Risk
Cost
Basis Risk
MMD Rate Lock Highest Lowest BMA Swap LIBOR
Swap Lowest Highest
16MMD Rate Lock
- In an MMD rate lock, the Issuer and the provider
agree - On a notional amount and average life which
should approximate the hedged bonds - On the duration of the rate lock
- On a locked MMD AAA rate based on current rates
plus a forward premium and - The amount of money per basis point which will be
paid in the event that MMD AAA rates are
different from the locked rates upon expiration
of the agreement. - MMD rate locks are Cash Settled
17BMA Swap Rate Lock
- In a BMA Swap rate lock, the Issuer and the
provider agree - On the notional amount and term of the swap which
should approximate the hedged bonds - On the duration of the rate lock and
- On a forward BMA swap rate based on the current
market plus a forward premium. - A termination payment is made at the expiration
of the rate lock which reflects the then current
market value of the underlying swap or the
Issuer can enter into the BMA swap at the
locked-in rate.
Receive Payment Issue Fixed Rate Bonds
Cash Settle
Rates Higher
Physical Settle
Enter into BMA Swap Rate Lock
Issue Floaters
Physical Settle
Rates Lower
Cash Settle
Make Payment Issue Fixed Rate Bonds
1867 of LIBOR Swap Rate Lock
- In a 67 of LIBOR Swap rate lock, the Issuer and
the provider agree - On the notional amount and term of the swap which
should approximate the hedged bonds - On the duration of the rate lock and
- On a forward 67 of LIBOR swap rate based on the
current market plus a forward premium. - A termination payment is made at the expiration
of the rate lock which reflects the then current
market value of the underlying swap or the
Issuer can enter into the 67 of LIBOR swap at
the locked-in rate.
Receive Payment Issue Fixed Rate Bonds
Cash Settle
Rates Higher
Physical Settle
Enter into LIBOR Swap Rate Lock
Issue Floaters
Physical Settle
Rates Lower
Cash Settle
Make Payment Issue Fixed Rate Bonds
19Basis Risk BMA Swap Hedge
- Municipal bonds are highly correlated to BMA
swaps. A BMA hedge will outperform an MMD hedge
if spreads narrow and under perform if spreads
widen.
Spread Current 31.787
bps Min (4.636) bps Max
57.950 bps Average 30.211 bps
20Basis Risk LIBOR Swap Hedge
- Municipal bonds are correlated to LIBOR swaps. A
LIBOR hedge will outperform an MMD hedge if
spreads narrow and under perform if spreads
widen.
Spread Current 91.543
bps Min 61.635 bps Max
132.033 bps Average 95.323 bps
21Summary of Decisions
Decide
- Decide Today
- Do Nothing
- Rate Lock
- MMD
- BMA Swap
- LIBOR Swap
at Expiration Cash Settle Physical Settle
Considerations Forward Premium Basis Risk
VS.
22Summary of Alternatives
- MMD rate locks remove the MMD volatility from the
pricing of Tax-Exempt Bonds (i.e., both general
interest rates and general municipal market
interest rates) - The Issuer retains the risk that its bonds could
trade at wider spreads to the general tax-exempt
bond market than they would today and - The Issuer would pay additional yield premium as
compared to the BMA and 67 of LIBOR Swap rate
locks. - BMA and 67 of LIBOR Swap rate locks provide a
hedge to fixed rate bonds by locking in rates on
the BMA swap and 67 of LIBOR swap curves
respectively. - The Issuer retains the risk that fixed rate
tax-exempt bonds in general could trade at wider
spreads to the BMA swap curve and - The Issuer also retains the risk that its bonds
could trade at wider or narrower spreads to the
general tax exempt bond market than they would
today.
23- Swaptions and
- Embedded Options
24Using Swaptions to Monetize Embedded Bond Options
- Most municipal bonds have a 10-year call
provision - The conventional way to monetize the value of an
Issuers embedded bond call options is through a
refunding, but refundings only capture a portion
of the options value - The theoretically most efficient way to monetize
call value would be to detach the call from the
bond and sell the detached option. - Swaptions provide Issuers with a means of
synthetically capturing the full value of the
embedded bond option
25Swaption Basics
- A swaption is the current sale of a future right
by Issuer to a swap counterparty to enter into an
interest rate swap on the call date - If the swap has value to counterparty,
counterparty would exercise its right to enter
into a swap - If the swap has no value to counterparty,
counterparty would allow the swap to expire
unexercised - The swaption premium paid by the Counterparty to
the Issuer represents the intrinsic value of the
swap (if exercised today) plus time value - There are three types of swaptions
- European are exercisable only at the strike date
- Bermudan (or Multi-European) are exercisable on a
certain date and at intervals thereafter (e.g.,
semiannually) up to another specified date - American are exercisable at any time up to and
including the strike date - If the counterparty does not exercise, Issuer
retains up-front premium and call option on
underlying bonds
26Mechanics of a Swaption
At Sale of Swaption
Swaption Premium
SWAP COUNTERPARTY / DEALER
ISSUER
Option to enter into a swap (Swaption)
At Exercise Date
A. Option is exercised and swap is executed
Issuer pays fixed rate and receives floating
rate. Issuer could issue floating rate bonds to
refund bonds and match swap obligation. Net debt
service post-refunding is essentially unchanged.
Floating TBMA or of Libor
ISSUER
SWAP COUNTERPARTY / DEALER
Fixed Swap Rate
Proceeds from floating rate bonds
Call and retire
Floating TBMA
FLOATING RATE BONDHOLDERS
FIXED RATE BONDHOLDERS
B. Option is not exercised under European
option, option terminates, Issuer keeps up-front
premium and retains call rights to the bonds
under Bermudan option, dealer holds additional
opportunities to exercise
27The Value of the Option is Composed of Time
Value and Intrinsic Value
- Time Value The value component associated with
the opportunity for yields to move in a direction
that makes the underlying security worth more
than the exercise price - Intrinsic Value The value component associated
with the difference between the current forward
yield and the strike rate. There is no intrinsic
value for an option with a strike rate below the
current forward yield.
Components of Option Value
Option value ()
Market forward rate
Option premium ()
Intrinsic value
Time value
Point of maximum time value
Strike yield ()
Higher rates
Lower rates
28Four Key Factors Primarily Determine the Value
of an Option
- The length of time for which the option is
exercisable. This is one of the 2 components of
time value
- The markets expectation regarding the future
level of prices. This determines intrinsic value.
- The relationship of the fixed rate for the
underlying swap to the corresponding on-market
forward rate.
- The markets implied expectation regarding
potential variability in yields. Greater
volatility results in higher time value.
29Option Pricing Sensitivity
30Swaption Candidates Screen Example
31Swaption Considerations
- Advantages
- Captures time value
- Can be repurchased at lower cost in higher rate
environment - Enhanced savings compared to forward starting
swaps - May provide greater value than an advance
refunding in a negative arbitrage environment - Applicable to non-advance refundable bonds
- Disadvantages
- No ability for Issuer to receive unwind payment
pre-exercise - May necessitate future floating rate bond issue
32Swaptions with Embedded Options
33 Credit Exposure Associated With Swaps
34Credit Exposure Associated with Swaps
- Swaps pose two-way credit risk due to the two-way
nature of the payments - Similar to a fixed income security, a swap has a
market value that changes with movements in
interest rates - Because of their two-way nature, swaps can have a
positive or a negative value to the Issuer
depending on the features of the transaction and
the levels of interest rates - Two key features of swaps that serve to dampen
credit risk are - No principal component (notional amount not
exchanged) - Netting of fixed and floating payments
35How Dealers Evaluate Credit Exposure
- Dealers assess credit exposure over the life of a
swap - Credit exposure models employ statistical
techniques to evaluate potential mark-to-market
values over the life of the transaction and over
varying potential interest rate environments - The dealers credit reserve for a transaction
reflects a combination of the mark-to-market
profiles and the Issuers credit strength
36How Issuers Evaluate Credit Exposure
- Issuers do not have access to credit departments
and sophisticated exposure models - Many Issuers take a simplistic approach that uses
notional amount as a proxy for credit exposure - Unfortunately, notional amount is not an accurate
measure of credit exposure - Other important factors include duration and the
fixed swap rate - Some Issuers have developed more refined
approaches for evaluating exposure
37How Issuers Evaluate Credit Exposure
Example of a More Sophisticated Issuer Approach
Towards Exposure
38Managing Credit Risk
- Credit Risk Risk of a default by your
counterparty. -
- Common mitigants include
- Dealing with highly rated counterparties (Aa/AA
category or higher) - Collateral provisions
- Termination upon downgrade
39Floating Rate Exposurewith Swaps
40Overview of Issuers Outstanding Debt
Net Interest Rate Exposure
- Assumes percentage of LIBOR and BMA
swaps-to-fixed with underlying floating rate
bonds as fixed rate exposure
Floating Rate (0)
Fixed Rate (100)
Summary of Bonds and Interest Rate Swaps
Total Par Amount Bonds Outstanding 600,000,000
41Overview of Outstanding Debt Funding Risks
Committed Funding An investor cannot put a
bond back to the Issuer does not require ongoing
support of liquidity. Uncommitted Funding An
investor has the right to put a bond back to
the Issuer usually requires ongoing liquidity
support.
Debt Mix Committed vs. Uncommitted Funding
Overview
Funding Components
Total 250 million
Traditional Fixed Rate Bonds Fixed Rate Bonds
Swapped-to-Floating Auction Rate
Securities Swapped to Fixed Committed
Funding Uncommitted Funding Variable Rate
Demand Bonds VRDBs Swapped-to-Fixed
Total Current Debt Outstanding 600 million
(mm)
Total 350 million
42Overview of Outstanding Debt Tax Risk
Tax Risk The risk that the value of tax
exemption diminishes in the future. This may
occur as a result of lower tax rates, a
restructuring of the federal tax system (i.e.
flat tax, value added tax), or other technical
market factors.
Debt Mix Tax Risk Overview
Tax Risk Alternatives
Total 275 million
(mm)
Total Current Debt Outstanding 600 million
Traditional Fixed Rate Bonds Floating Rate Bonds
w/ BMA Swap-to-Fixed NO Tax Risk Tax
Risk Basis Positions (i.e. of LIBOR
Swaps-to-Fixed and Basis Swaps) Tax-Exempt or
AMT VRDBs, ARS, or BMA Swaps-to-Floating
Total 500 million
43Synthetic Floating Rate Debt Overview
- The Issuer desires floating rate exposure so it
enters into a 15 year fixed receiver swap to
achieve variable rate exposure on 20 of its
debt. With a fixed receiver swap, the Issuer
will not have the burden of ongoing expenses
associated with traditional VRDBs. - The transaction can be implemented quickly using
standardized documentation. - The synthetic floating swap that will commence on
the execution of the transaction and lock into
the difference between the fixed receiver swap
rate of 4.00 and the BMA index (currently
1.55). - Obtaining floating rate exposure utilizing the
BMA swap market can be more efficient than
traditional variable rate debt. - The Issuer has the flexibility to terminate the
swap at any time at market value (the swap
Counterparty does not have this same right). - The Issuer can combine traditional fixed receiver
swaps with the use of optionality to reduce the
floating rate it pays and thus lower the
borrowing rate.
44Synthetic Floating Rate Debt (Fixed Receiver Swap)
Synthetic floating rate debt is an alternative to
natural floating rate debt
Structure
BMA
SWAP COUNTERPARTY / DEALER
ISSUER
Fixed Rate of 4.00
FIXED RATE BONDS
Current BMA 1.55 120mm 15 Yr fixed
receiver swap as of 12/2/04
Applications
Mechanics
- Manage existing variable rate exposure
- Obtain funding at short end of the yield curve
- Achieve lower floating rate debt vs. natural
floating rate
- The Issuer will receive fixed and pay floating
against newly issued or existing fixed rate bonds - Net cost of synthetic floating rate debt
floating rate index (bond coupon fixed
receiver swap rate)
45Overview of Issuers Outstanding Debt After Swap
Execution
Net Interest Rate Exposure
- Assumes percentage of LIBOR and BMA
swaps-to-fixed with underlying floating rate
bonds as fixed rate exposure
Floating Rate (20)
Fixed Rate (80)
Summary of Bonds and Interest Rate Swaps After
Swap Execution
Total Par Amount Bonds Outstanding 600,000,000
46Overview of Outstanding Debt After Swap
Execution Funding Risks
Debt Mix Committed vs. Uncommitted Funding
Overview
Funding Components
Total 250 million
Traditional Fixed Rate Bonds Fixed Rate Bonds
Swapped-to-Floating Auction Rate
Securities Swapped to Fixed Committed
Funding Uncommitted Funding Variable Rate
Demand Bonds VRDBs Swapped-to-Fixed
Total Current Debt Outstanding 600 million
(mm)
Total 350 million
47Overview of Outstanding Debt After Swap
Execution Tax Risk
Debt Mix Tax Risk Overview
Tax Risk Alternatives
Total 155 million
(mm)
Total Current Debt Outstanding 600 million
Traditional Fixed Rate Bonds Floating Rate Bonds
w/ BMA Swap-to-Fixed NO Tax Risk Tax
Risk Basis Positions (i.e. of LIBOR
Swaps-to-Fixed and Basis Swaps) Tax-Exempt or
AMT VRDBs, ARS, or BMA Swaps-to-Floating
Total 620 million
48Advantages and Disadvantages of Fixed Receiver
Swaps
Advantages of Fixed Receiver Swaps
- No exposure to increased LOC Costs, or
availability, caused by tightening credit
enhancement, market conditions or the Issuers
credit deterioration. - Achieve variable rate exposure and potentially
provide a better match of assets to liabilities - Flexibility to unwind and take market gains.
- Achieve variable rate exposure and lower overall
cost on fixed rate bonds.
Risks of Fixed Receiver Swaps
- Short term rates could rise above the fixed
receiver rate of 4.00 creating a negative spread
(BMA has averaged 3.12 for the past 15 years
which is much lower than the fixed receiver rate
of 4.00) - Tax risk with BMA index swaps.
- Credit exposure to swap counterparty.
- Potential cost if the swap is terminated early
and swap rates have increased (cumulative savings
from the swap may provide enough cash to offset
any termination fees owed by the Issuer).
49Ongoing Monitoring of Swaps
50GASB Technical Bulletin No. 2003-1
- The objectives and terms of derivative contracts,
their risks and the fair value of the contracts
are generally not specified in financial reports
today, making it difficult to understand how
governments have been accounting for derivatives. - In an effort to improve disclosures associated
with derivative contracts, the Governmental
Accounting Standards Board (GASB) has issued
Technical Bulletin No. 2003-1, Disclosure
Requirements for Derivatives Not Reported at Fair
Value on the Statement of Net Assets. - Technical Bulletin No. 2003-1, which supersedes
Technical Bulletin No. 94-1, specifies the
accounting guidance that will provide more
comprehensive reporting by state and local
governments and gives an updated definition of a
derivative. - Under the new guidance, the public will be able
to see what a government has done, why it was
done, the fair value of the derivative and the
risks assumed. - This is designed to provide information to
increase the financial statement users
understanding of the significance and risks of
derivatives to a governments financial position
and would provide key information about the
potential effects of derivatives on future cash
flows.
51GASB Technical Bulletin No. 2003-1
- The disclosures required by TB 2003-1 are limited
to derivatives not reported at fair value. Many
derivatives are already reported at fair value.
For example, defined benefit plans report all
investments (including investment derivatives) at
fair value. - Therefore, governments that are party to a
derivative that was not reported at fair value as
of the date of the financial statements, should
disclose the following information - 1) Objective of the derivative Objective for
entering into the derivative, the context - needed to understand the
objective, and the strategies for achieving the
objective. - 2) Significant Terms Notional Amount,
underlying indexes, embedded - options, effective and
maturity dates, and amount of upfront cash paid
or - received.
- 3) Associated Debt For example, if a
government issues variable rate - debt and enters into a
fixed payer swap, the derivatives net cash flow
as - well as the debt service
requirements should be disclosed. - 4) Risks Credit, interest rate, basis,
termination, rollover, and market - access.
- 5) Fair value If the fair value is not based
on market prices, the method - and assumptions used to
estimate the fair value must be disclosed. - This Technical Bulletin will be effective for
periods ending after June 15, 2003. The Bulletin
may be obtained through the GASB Order Department
at 800-748-0659 or may be may be accessed from
the website (http//www.gasb.org/gasb_tb2003-1.ht
ml).
52What SPs Debt Derivative Profile (DDP) scores
ARE
- A recognition that municipalities and 501(C)3s
are using more sophisticated products and
strategies formerly used only in the corporate
market. - An analytical enhancement to an Issuers rating
- A quantitative representation of credit analyses
that SP has already been doing - Scoring system of 1 (lowest risk) to 5 (highest
risk) and there are 4 scoring components - Issuer termination and collateral posting risk
(e.g. how close issuers rating is to ISDA-based
termination triggers) - Counterparty termination credit risk credit
strength of swap dealer - Economic viability of swap portfolio cash flow
risk measurements - Quality of swap and debt management policies and
procedures
53What SPs Debt Derivative Profile (DDP) scores
ARE
- Investment grade credits are expected to receive
1 or 2 (neutral credit factor) or 3 (moderate
credit factor) - A measure of termination risk of an Issuers
derivatives portfolio - Termination values will only be reviewed for
scores of 3, 4, or 5 - Offsetting financial exposures will be netted
- Applied to interest rate derivatives only
- May be applied to investment derivatives in the
future - One score will be published per Issuer credit
54Derivative Policies and Procedures Main
Components of a Comprehensive Policy
e.g. a better financial result than traditional
forms of borrowing or investment, greater
flexibility than traditional instruments, a risk
profile not otherwise achievable via traditional
instruments
- Authorizations and Approvals - establishes the
chain-of-command for authorizing derivative
transactions
- Identification and Evaluation of Risks -
describes the various risks associated with
derivative transactions, as well as the
importance of analyzing these risks relative to
the expected benefits from the transactions
e.g. cash flow volatility, mark-to-market
volatility, termination risk, legal risks,
counterparty risk, basis risk, tax risk, rollover
risk, and market-access risk
- Reporting Requirements - establishes a system and
procedures for monitoring relevant risks on an
ongoing basis
e.g. periodic mark-to-market reports, updates on
counterparty ratings, and updates on performance
of the derivative(s) to date, including any
offsetting bonds that are hedged by the
derivative(s)
- Permitted Financial Instruments - lists the
specific types of derivatives that can be
executed by the issuer
e.g. interest rate swaps, caps, floors, collars,
options, rate locks, etc.
55Derivative Policies and Procedures Main
Components of a Comprehensive Policy
- Qualified Swap Counterparties list the
requirements for eligible swap counterparties
- Often tied to credit ratings, capital, and
experience in the swap market
- Credit Exposure Limits establish individual
counterparty credit risk limits and/or aggregate
limits
- Limits should be based on the mark-to-market
exposure of the issuer to individual
counterparties. Exposure limits can be scaled to
take into account the then-current ratings of the
counterparties
- Guidelines for Derivative Contracts - This
section establishes a consistent set of legal and
credit guidelines that are applied to all of the
issuers derivative contracts
- Procurement Process - outlines the procedures for
executing derivative transactions on a
competitive or negotiated basis
- Reasonable differences may exist from one
contract to the next, owing to the legal nature
of the counterparty (e.g. bank, broker-dealer,
special-purpose sub, etc.), but key provisions
should be the same
56Swap Portfolio Management Ongoing Monitoring
- Review payment accruals for each swap period
(first time users of swaps) - Provide mark-to-market on individual swap
transactions - Monthly
- Quarterly
- Semi-Annually
- Annually
- Provide mark-to-market exposure on swap portfolio
with aggregate exposure to different
counterparties - Provide basis analysis since the execution date
of the swap(s) to present and for the most recent
period - Provide termination analysis for swap
transactions - Monitor and update the Issuer on its hedging
position, swap market conditions and resulting
opportunities that are available
57Example Termination Analysis Estimated Values not
Guaranteed
58Example Basis Analysis Since Swap Inception As of
December 1, 2004
Average BMA 1.20 Average 70 of LIBOR
1.02 Average BMA as a of LIBOR 83
59Example Basis Analysis For Last Quarter As of
December 1, 2004
Average BMA 1.59 Average 70 of LIBOR
1.34 Average BMA as a of LIBOR 83
60Example Mark-to-Market Report As of November 30,
2004
61Example Payment Accrual Report As of December 1,
2004
Example Payment Accrual Report as of 12/1/04