Climate 2030 POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT

1
Climate 2030 POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT

• by
• Dr Dianne Rudd
• Senior Lecturer, Discipline of Geographical and
  Environmental Studies,
• The University of Adelaide
• Presentation to Research Institute for Climate
  Change
• Seminar 3 Population and Environment
• 18 March 2008
• Acknowledgement of some slides from presentation
  on Population Trends and Policy provided by Prof
  Graeme Hugo

2
Outline of Presentation

• Introduction
• Why is Demography Relevant?
• Australian Population Growth
• Mortality
• Fertility
• Migration
• The Situation in South Australia
• A Role for Population Policy
• Population Distribution
• The mismatch between population and water
• Migration and the environment
• Conclusion

3
Demography

• The scientific study of the changing size,
  composition and spatial distribution of the
  population and the processes which shape them.

4
Why is Population and Environment an Important
area of study?

• Significant inter- relationships between health,
  economy, society, environment and population
  cohorts
• Population numbers are important but must be
  considered with
• - characteristics age, sex, family composition
  etc
• - location urban, regions, remote communities
• - environmental conditions
• Population and environment is a neglected area of
  study

5
Contemporary Population Growth Rates (pa)
Source ESCAP 2007 Population Reference Bureau
2006 and 2007 ABS 2007
6
Australia and South Australia Rate of
Population Growth per Annum, 1947 to 2006Source
ABS 1983 and ABS Australian Demographic
Statistics, various issues
7
Projections of the Population of Australia and
South Australia Source ABS Projections 2005 and
Planning SA
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Population Growth

• Natural Increase Births-Deaths
• Net Migration Inmigration-Outmigration

10
Australia Total Population Growth Showing the
Natural Increase and Net Migration Components,
1901-2007Source ABS 1986 and ABS Australian
Demographic Statistics, various issues
11
Australia Expectation of Life at Birth,
1870-2006Source Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths
Bulletins

• Expectation of Life at Birth
• Males Females
• 1947 66.1 70.6
• 2006 78.7 83.5

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Australia Expectation of Life at Age 50,
1901-1910, 1970-1972 and 2006Source ABS
13
Fertility
Australia Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to
2006Source CBCS Demography and ABS Births
Australia, various issues
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Everyone is interested in population right
nowOne for mother, one for father and one for
the country
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Total Fertility Rate(a) States and
TerritoriesSource ABS 2007, Australian Social
Trends
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Australia A Country of Immigration

• 24 percent born overseas
• 26 percent Australia-born with an overseas-born
  parent(s)
• 630,513 persons temporarily present at 30/6/06
• 289,300 with the right to work
• 527,609 given temporary residence in 2005-06
• 140,148 incoming permanent settlers in 2006-07
• 48,214 temporary residents given permanent
  residence in 2005-06
• 1 million expatriates outside Australia

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Australian Immigration Policy

• 1947-1996 Emphasis on Permanent Settlement
• 1995 Report of the Committee of Inquiry Into
  the Temporary Entry of Business People and Highly
  Skilled Specialists

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2006-07

• 140,148 Incoming Permanent
• Settlers
• 368,546 Granted Temporary
• Residence

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AUSTRALIA UNLIMITEDPopular Concept 1920s and
1930s

• Preoccupation with quantity could support 90m
• Australia empty
• Need to increase Australias population and
  productivity to make it a world power
• Defence and security always at forefront
• Closer settlement
• British push to build a self-sufficient empire

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Griffith Taylor a geographer very much in the
public eye was the main person criticising the
concept of Australia Unlimited in 1920s

• Australias population already close to
  saturation (9m)
• Should not ignore environmental controls
• Need environmental research and education
• Predicted population by yr 2000 of 20m not in
  excess of 60m
• He supported his arguments with data unlike most
  others of his time
• Forced to leave Australia to pursue academic
  career -USA

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One of Taylors Economic maps Sydney Morning
Herald 28 Feb. 1925. Numbers indicate predicted
order of rational settlement.
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CURRENT POPULATION ISSUES UNDER CONSIDERATION
IN AUSTRALIA

• Declining Fertility
• Immigration Levels
• Immigration Composition
• Shift from Populate or Perish to Populate and
  Perish
• Population and the Environment
• Population Distribution

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The Situation in South AustraliaSouth
Australia Total Population Growth Showing the
Natural Increase and Net Migration Components,
1947 to 2007Source ABS 1997 and Australian
Demographic Statistics, various issues
25
South Australia Growth of Adelaide and
Non-Metropolitan Population, 2001-06Source ABS
2007
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South AustraliaAge-Sex Structure, 2001 and
2006Source ABS 2006 Census Time Series Profile
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South Australia Age and Sex Distribution of the
Population,2006 and Projected 2031Source ABS
2006 Census and ABS 2005 Projections
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South Australias Population Policy

• First in the nation to initiate a population
  policy
• Strengths
• See population as a key element in economic
  policy
• consideration of each demographic process
• Recognition of the short term impact of the
  ageing of the baby boom
• basis for community discussion
• Weaknesses
• Targets
• needs to more explicitly to build in
  environmental factors
• Need for more regional community and local level
  consideration

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STATE STRATEGIC PLAN POPULATION TARGETS
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South AustraliaPopulation Growth, 2000-2007
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South Australia Population if Current Rate of
Growth Maintained
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South Australia Components ofPopulation Change,
1996-2007Source ABS 2002, pp. 11-12 ABS 2007,
pp. 11-14
34
South Australia Net Overseas Migration, 1979 to
2007Source ABS Australian Demographic
Statistics, various issues
35
Australia Settler Arrivals by State According
to Whether They are State Specific and Regional
Migration Scheme Migrants or Other Migrants,
2005-06Source, DIMA unpublished data
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Changing Population Distribution

• One of the worlds most urbanised populations 87
  percent living in urban areas
• 81.1 percent living within 50km of coast
• Most mobile population in the world
• Population density in 2006 was 2.7 persons (sq
  km) compared to 2.5 persons in 2001
• Every five years 42.3 percent of the population
  move house. Every year 17.0 percent move.

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Changing Population DistributionShifts in the
Australian Proportion Centroid, 1911-2006Source
Australian Censuses, ABS 2003, 2004 and 2007
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Distribution of Australian Population in
2006Source ABS year book 2008
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Distribution of Indigenous Population in
2006Source ABS year book 2008
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Australia Net Interstate Migration,
2006Source ABS yr book 2008
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Australia Distribution of Population Between
States and Territories, Actual 1881-2006 and
Projected 2051Source Rowland 1982, 25 ABS
2005 and 2007
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Australia Changing Distribution of the
Population Between Urban and Rural Sectors, 1921
to 2006Source Australian Censuses, 1921-2006
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Australia Population Change in Country Towns,
2001-2006 Source Australian Censuses of 2001
and 2006
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Adelaide Statistical Division Percent Change in
Population by SLA, 2005-2006Source ABS, Cat.
No. 3218.0.55.001 Regional Population Growth,
Australia - companion data,
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South Australia Percent Change in Population by
SLA, 2005-2006Source ABS, Cat. No.
3218.0.55.001 Regional Population Growth,
Australia - companion data
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South Australia Selected Coastal LGAs -
Population Change 1996-2006Source ABS Regional
Population Growth, Estimated Resident Population
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Victor Harbor LGA Age Structure 1996 and
2006 Source 1996 and 2006 Census
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Alexandrina LGA Age Structure 1996 and
2006 Source 1996 and 2006 Census
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Yankalilla LGA Age Structure 1996 and
2006 Source 1996 and 2006 Census
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Copper Coast LGA Age Structure 1996 and
2006 Source 1996 and 2006 Census
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The Environmental Issue

• Been neglected in population debate
• Climate change has focused attention
• Little dialogue between environmental and
  economic lobbies
• Need for cross-disciplinary discussion in order
  to achieve sustainability

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Climate Change and Migration

• Unlikely to create large shifts in population
  distribution
• Will influence where future growth will be
• Some agriculture, especially irrigation
  agriculture will need to move
• Water will be more influential as a location
  factor
• Need for greater water conservation,
  infrastructure investment and reuse

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The Mismatch Between Water and Population(Nix
1988, 72)
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What is Needed Nationally?

• To recognise the significance of population and
  environment issues and the relationship between
  them
• Vigorous informed debate inclusive of all
  groups
• Research gaps need to be filled
• A comprehensive population policy
• Need to integrate with other areas of policy
• Need for a vision of Australias population future

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The particular ecological zones where there is
emerging concern on the environmental impact of
internal migration (as argued by Hugo, 2007)

• Southeast Queensland Australias fastest
  growing region for last 2 decades. (Noosa has
  placed population cap by 2013)
• Coastal sea change rapid growth can degrade
  fragile environments and exert stress on local
  resources. Often limited fresh water and impact
  of essentially urban migrants on rural community

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Continued

• Increasing growth of major metropolitan areas
  through international and internal migration has
  also attracted concerns about
• -water quality and quantity
• -air pollution
• -ecosystem health
• -Scarcity of arable land
• -pollution of rivers and coasts
• -biodiversity

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Conclusion

• Population is too important an influence on
  economy, society and environment to not be
  included in government policy.
• Population policy is best developed by
  encouraging informed public debate about what
  kind of Australia we want in the future
• The research base to inform debate is weak
• Not simply a question of population growth but
  also per capita consumption

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Water and population sustainability issues in
SA to support 2.5 - 3 million persons on basis
of consumption

• if people were willing to use less water for
  their domestic habits and either have no gardens
  or change their style of gardening so that less
  water was consumed, then the water available
  could support a higher population. Such a move
  would be considered by many to be a lowering of
  living standards

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New sources of water supply should be
investigated

• - Desalination procedures would be useful to
  augment supplies
• Such plants must be carefully sited and
  planned in the knowledge of likely power demands
  as only a large nuclear installation is likely to
  provide water at reasonably low cost.

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• These statements are just as applicable now as
  they were 32 years ago with little done to change
  the perceived needs and to address the question
  of population numbers and environmental impact
  particularly water scarcity as a limit to growth
• State of Environment Report 1976