CEO Roundtable: Critical Issues in Todays Media

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CEO Roundtable Critical Issues in Todays Media

• Patrick Kenealy
• CEO, IDG

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Using the Past to Sell Internal Change

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IDG is coping with 3 major, simultaneous changes

• Fundamental technology change
• business cycles and vendor waves
• A major new media cycle

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Was this slope obvious in 1970?
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Was this trend obvious in 1956?(Price/MB of disk
space)

• 1956 10,000/MB
• 1980 200/MB
• 1990 9/MB
• 2000 2 cents/MB
• 2004 8.7MB/cent

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A Typical IT Stock Crash
1984
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The PC Crash, and after
Source IDC 2001
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Cause of Boom And Contraction Cycles

• When Promising New Technology Appears
• Many new firms launched with Venture Capital to
  try to exploit this new technology.
• Potential Buyers are confused by too many choices
  of vendors and products.
• Lower than expected sales cause many firms to
  drop out of market or to consolidate with
  competitors.
• When surviving suppliers reduced to less than
  twenty, buyers gain confidence and make major
  commitments.

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Computing Industry Cycles Can Be Deceptive
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Computing Waves
1980
2000
1990
1960
1970
Mainframes Burroughs, Univac, NCR, Control
Data, Honeywell, RCA, GE, Xerox IBM
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Computing Waves
1980
2000
1990
1960
1970
Mainframes Burroughs, Univac, NCR, Control
Data, Honeywell, RCA, GE, Xerox, IBM
Minicomputers Digital, Data General, Prime,
Stratus, Tandem, Wang, IBM, H-P
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Computing Waves
1980
2000
1990
1960
1970
Mainframes Burroughs, Univac, NCR, Control
Data, Honeywell, RCA, GE, Xerox, IBM
Minicomputers Digital, Data General, Prime,
Stratus, Tandem, Wang, IBM, H-P
PCs ALR, AST, Atari, Compaq, Everex, Leading
Edge, Micron, Packard Bell, TI, Tandon, IBM, H-P,
Apple, Dell, Acer, Legend
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Computing Waves
Mainframes Burroughs, Univac, NCR, Control
Data, Honeywell, RCA, GE, Xerox, IBM
Internet 24/7, AltaVista, Etoys, Exodus,
Goto.com, Globalcomm, US Web, AOL, Amazon, eBay,
Expedia, Yahoo
Minicomputers Digital, Data General, Prime,
Stratus, Tandem, Wang IBM, H-P
PCs ALR, AST, Atari, Compaq, Everex, Leading
Edge, Micron, Packard Bell, TI, Tandon, IBM,
H-P,Applw, Dell, Acer, Legend
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So, what is the next wave?
Security/Privacy PC Gaming
Autonomous Computing BioIT/Life Sciences Gaming
networks Web Services Job
function Gadgets/Pers Auto RFID Console
gaming Digital Home Mobile
Apps/Svcs/Data
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New technology creates new media

• Movable type broadside and pamphlet journalism
• Steam-powered rotary press Giant metropolitan
  newspapers
• Railroad Big national magazines
• Telegraph fax Newspaper chains
• Radio
• Television
• Computers and databases Controlled-circulation
  publishing
• Cable the 500 channel universe
• Satellite the global network
• PCs, Internet, broadband Web publishing

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Some new media thoughts

• New market measurements are usual
• Ad format experimentation and standardization are
  usual
• Church/state boundary shifts are usual
• Employee training and turnover are usual
• New products, new leaders, and new fortunes
  emerge
• Metros - McClure, McCormack, Ochs
• Newspaper chains - Pulitzer, Scripps, Hearst,
  Knight-Ridder
• Radio Sarnoff
• TV Paley
• Cable Dolan, Malone
• Satellite Murdoch, Turner
• Internet Case, Yang, Philo, Brin,

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In conclusion

• The world of technology is always changing
• The technology business is always changing
• Journalism is changing
• Change is the only constant