Based on Expert Political Judgment

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????? ?????????, ??? 2009 Based on Expert
Political Judgment
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The Clash of Civilizations will dominate global
politics (Huntington, 1993)
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2009)
The belief that the USSR may disintegrate
contradicts all we know (Hough, 1991)
The Euro will disappear in 15-20 years (Rogers,
2006)
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(?????? ???, 2009)
The US will go through a serious economic setback
(Rogers, 2006)
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The Dollar will deteriorate for two three
decades (Rogers, 2008)
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Expert Political Judgment (Tetlock, 2005)
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Lanir, Kahneman (1975)
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5
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???? ???" ?????????, ????? ????? (680 ????"?) ,
????? 1951
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One size fits all
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Tetlock Expert Political Judgment
Zvi Lanirs Blog
Lanir, Kahneman An Experiment in Decision
Analysis in Israel in 1975
Isaiah Berlin The Hedgehog and The Fox (1953)
Jim Collins From Good To Great
Blue Ocean Strategy
Thomas Fridman The World is Flat
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among the few who correctly called the fall of
the Soviet Union were what I call
ethno-nationalist fundamentalists, who believed
that multi-ethnic nations were likely to be torn
apart. They were spectacularly right with
Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union. But they also
expected Nigeria, India and Canada to
disintegrate. That's how it is with hedgehogs
You get spectacular hits but lots of false
alarms.
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