Estimating Activity Durations - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 25
About This Presentation
Title:

Estimating Activity Durations

Description:

PERT Dialogue. It all depends. ... PERT Dialogue. But given what I know about ... Estimate-Talk-Estimate and PERT method can increase accuracy of estimate of ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:67
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 26
Provided by: farrokha
Category:

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Estimating Activity Durations


1
Estimating Activity Durations
  • Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D.

2
Purpose
  • Accuracy matters

3
Implicit Assumptions Revealed
  • More people, less time

4
Source of Data
  • Expert opinions
  • Time studies
  • Statistical analysis

5
Source of Data
  • Expert opinions
  • Time studies
  • Statistical analysis

6
Source of Data
  • Expert opinions
  • Time studies
  • Stop motion studies
  • Diary
  • Statistical analysis

7
Source of Data
  • Expert opinions
  • Time studies
  • Statistical analysis

8
Assessing Experts Opinions
  • Assumptions
  • Estimate, talk and estimate
  • Delphi

9
Assessing Experts Opinions
  • Assumptions
  • Estimate, talk and estimate
  • Delphi

10
Assessing Experts Opinions
  • Assumptions
  • Estimate, talk and estimate
  • Delphi

11
Example of Estimate Talk Estimate
12
Example of Estimate Talk Estimate
Thanks for agreeing to help usplease write down
13
Example of Estimate Talk Estimate
Responses from different expert are collected and
displayed on the flip chart without attribution
14
Example of Estimate Talk Estimate
This is great. Lets discuss why it could take a
long time
15
Example of Estimate Talk Estimate
Well it depends on the experience of the person
configuring the system
16
Example of Estimate Talk Estimate
And it also depends on how cooperative the
clinicians are.
17
Example of Estimate Talk Estimate
Discussion of Assumptions
18
Example of Estimate Talk Estimate
You have said please re-estimate
19
PERT
  • Optimistic
  • Realistic
  • Pessimistic

20
PERT
  • Optimistic
  • Realistic
  • Pessimistic

21
PERT Dialogue
How long do you think it would take to send 100
surveys out?
22
PERT Dialogue
It all depends. I have seen people do it in 6
hours and I have seen others do it in 1 hour.
23
PERT Dialogue
But given what I know about your operations I
think it will take 2 hours.
24
PERT Dialogue
25
Take Home Lesson
  • Estimate-Talk-Estimate and PERT method can
    increase accuracy of estimate of duration of
    activities
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
About PowerShow.com