The Areal Mean Basin Estimated Rainfall AMBER Program A Tool to Assist in Flash Flood Forecasting

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The Areal Mean Basin Estimated Rainfall(AMBER)
ProgramA Tool to Assist in Flash Flood
Forecasting

• Ami Arthur
• Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale
  Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) /
  
• National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL),
• Western Intermountain Storms and Hydrometeorology
  (WISH) Team

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The AMBER Program

• Simply a large book keeping program to keep
  track of the precipitation falling in multiple
  basins.
  
• Input Precipitation estimates from the Weather
  Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D)
  
• Output Average basin rainfall (ABR) rates and
  accumulations

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History of AMBER

• Developed by Bob Davis (Pittsburgh NWSFO) and
  Paul Jendrowski (Honolulu NWSFO) over the past 15
  years.
  
• First operational in May 1985 at Pittsburgh.
• 10-mi2 basins delineated manually from a fishing
  stream map of Pennsylvania.
  
• Initially no ABR computation--simply overlay
  comparison with WSR-57 rainfall estimates.
  
• Eventually ABR computations were added, but all
  output was text-based.

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History of AMBER

• It was discovered that smaller basins were needed
  to be able to accurately forecast flash floods.
  
• 3-mi2 basins were manually delineated from
  7.5-minute topographic maps.
  
• WSR-88D rainfall estimates were mapped to the
  basins.
  
• AMBER was operational with the 3-mi2 basins in
  May 1996 at Pittsburgh.
  
• AMBER was operational with 1-mi2 basins in urban
  areas in May 1999.

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History of AMBER

• In 1998, NSSL became involved in AMBER work.
• 10-mi2 basins were delineated in ArcView from
  3-arc-second DEMs and RF1 data for the Tulsa, OK
  and Sterling, VA NWSFOs.
  
• A prototype graphical display was developed.
• AMBER and the new display were operational in
  Tulsa and Sterling by Fall 1998.
  
• In 1999, NSSL conducted a formal evaluation of
  AMBER at these two sites.

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AMBER Input

• The success of AMBER is highly dependent on three
  factors
  
• Quality of the basin delineation
• Quality of the precipitation estimates
• The forecasters ability to interpret AMBER
  output and the hydrologic situation

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KINX (Tulsa) Radar Bin Centroids Mapped to the
Delineated Basins
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NSSLs AMBER Display
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Future of AMBER

• The NWS plans to include an AMBER-like
  functionality as part of the Flash Flood
  Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) program to be
  implemented in the Advanced Weather Interactive
  Processing System (AWIPS).
• An initial version will be operational by Summer
  2001.
  
• Updates and modifications will continue after
  that.
  

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Future of AMBER

• NSSL has been tasked with delineating basins
  (2-mi2 minimum basin threshold) and preparing
  FFMP data sets for every NWSFO in the country.
  
• This will be an initial effort to make the FFMP
  operational for everyone as quickly as possible.
  
• Use of the NED will assure the best quality
  possible for the initial basin cut.
  
• The basin delineation work done here can also
  benefit the NED-H project.
  
• An excellent opportunity for cooperation with
  EROS and minimization of duplicate efforts!
  

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Concluding Remarks

• AMBER provides valuable, up-to-date information
  to forecasters for many basins over various time
  intervals.
  
• AMBER monitors rainfall accumulation and rate on
  the basin level and alerts the forecaster to
  potential flash flooding.
  
• AMBER provides a much needed tool to assist in
  flash flood forecasting and warning decisions.