The British are coming The British are coming

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The British are coming! The British are coming!
Paul Revere, noted silversmith
a.k.a.
Douglas Miller, Associate Professor Atmospheric
Sciences Department UNC Asheville
http//www.constitution.org/img/hintermeister_reve
re.jpg
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STIP Integrated Planning Team for Hydrologic
Services(September 2002)
Key Information Gaps (the Tyrants)

• Quantitative Precipitation Information (QPE
  QPF)
• Unbiased Precipitation Estimates with
  Reliability Information
• Reliable 0-6 Hour Precip. Nowcasts
• Longer-term, Unbiased Model QPFs
• Hydrologic Forecasting
• High-resolution Flash Flood Forecasts Warnings
• Probabilistic River Forecasts Using 0-3 day QPF
  and Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts

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Asheville region (accessories to the Tyrants)

• Mount Mitchell highest peak east of the
  Mississippi River

http//www.romanticasheville.com/mtmitchell.htm
http//sherpaguides.com/north_carolina/mountains/m
aps/mount_mitchell_state_park.html
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Asheville region
Asheville
Sourcehttp//www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/
ssd99-6.htm
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Asheville region

• Annual precipitation

Courtesty Grant Goodge
http//www.gesource.ac.uk/worldguide/html/image_19
46.html
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Wintertime precipitation

• Snow?
• Freezing rain?
• How much?

http//www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/lcldata.htm
Photo by John Cunningham
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Convection and mountains

• Under what conditions do the mountains
• Impede
• Initiate
• convection in western North Carolina?

Courtesy Grant Goodge
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Peeks Creek Debris Flow Hurricane Ivan
1010 PM Sept. 16, 2004
Courtesy Rick Wooten, NCGS
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Sept. 16, 2004 Debris Flow Deposits
Prehistoric Debris Flow Deposits
Courtesy Rick Wooten, NCGS
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Courtesy Rick Wooten, NCGS
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Flooding
Courtesy Grant Goodge
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A recent example in central NC
Some notable rainfall amounts Grand Cayman -
22.72 inches (577 mm) Isabel Rubya, Cuba - 16.14
inches (410 mm) Rio Seco, Cuba - 17.52 inches
(445 mm) La Palma, Cuba - 14.57 inches (370
mm) US high Raleigh, North Carolina NWS office -
7.16 inches (182 mm) Florida high Ruskin,
Florida - 6.71 inches (170 mm) Georgia high
Rincon, Georgia - 7.05 inches (179 mm) South
Carolina high Bluffton, South Carolina - 4.13
inches (105 mm) North Carolina high Raleigh,
North Carolina - 7.16 inches (182 mm) Virginia
high Norfolk, Virginia - 3.22 inches (82 mm)
W.S. 2006
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Tropical Depression Alberto blew through June
13-14, 2006
urban flooding
W.S. 2006
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STIP IPT for Hydrologic ServicesOutstanding RD
Needs

• Develop QPE Techniques That Optimally Blend
  Next-generation Radar, Satellite (e.g, GPM), and
  Rain Gauge Data
• Improve Short-Term Radar-Satellite Precipitation
  Nowcasting Techniques Blended with NWP Forecasts
• Develop High Resolution Hydrologic Forecast
  Models of Water Excess-Deficit at Ungauged
  Locations
• Develop Ensemble NWP and Hydrologic Model
  Forecasts with Associated Reliability Information
• Improve NWP Model Physics and Increase
  Assimilation of Existing Observational Datasets
• Implement Hydrometeorological Testbeds to
  Demonstrate Evaluate Next-Generation Datasets,
  Forecast Techniques, Models

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Test bed concept
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What is HMT?

• HMT is a working relationship among forecasters,
  researchers, private-sector, and government
  agencies aimed at solving operational and
  practical regional ___________ problems with a
  strong connection to end-users.
• Outcomes are improved services, products, and
  economic/public safety benefits, focused on
  QPE/QPF.
• HMT accelerates the transition of RD on QPF to
  better operations, services, and decision making.
• Requires long-term commitment and partnerships.

Hydrometeorological
Derived from USWRP Mesoscale Observing Workshop,
December 2003
NOAA HMT Web Page http//hmt.noaa.gov/
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NEMAC
From the NEMAC web page
Academia
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The HMT Legacy
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HMT-2004 A Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT) for
the Russian River Watershed
BBY Bodega Bay BSC Big
Sulfur Creek CVD Cloverdale CZC
Cazadero FRS Fort Ross GRK Goat Rock
HBG Healdsburg HLD Hopland
LSN Lake Sonoma ROD Rio Dell SPT Salt
Point
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Measurement of melting level at the coast gives
advance warning for when storm hits the Sierras
Bodega Bay, on the coast
Grass Valley, in the foothills
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Hydrometeorology Testbed Program (HMT)
The national Hydrometeorological Testbed program
will be implemented incrementally in different
regions of the U.S.
Mean annual precipitation (inches)
HMT WEST - Cool Season
American River Basin (Sierra Nevada)
HMT EAST All Season, including
Hurricane Landfall
HMT CENTRAL Warm Season
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Why the American River Basin?

• Complex water resource management issues in an
  urban area with large societal impacts
• Large demand for water/hydropower
• Threat of devastating flood
• Ecological concerns

D.K. 2006
Photo by Bryan Patrick, Sacramento Bee
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HMT-West 2006

• Schedule
• 1 December 2005 to 7 March 2006
• Pre-declared hard-down 22-29 December
• http//www.etl.noaa.gov/programs/2006/hmt/
• Observing Strategy Themes
• High Resolution QPE
• Melting layer mapping
• Orographic Airflow and Precipitation Development
  Process Studies
• Integration with DMIP-2
• http//www.weather.gov/oh/hrl/dmip/2/

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HMT Observing Systems
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Summary of HMT-West 2006 IOPs
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Proposed Hydrometeorology Testbed Timeline
Regions of Focus
American River
Key Eastern U.S. Watershed
Key Central U.S. Watershed
Analysis
Level of effort / activity
HMT-East
SHARE
?????
HMT-Central
HMT-West
Field Work
HMT-West Legacy
HMT-East Legacy
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06
07
08
09
10
11
12
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Fiscal Year
NOAA Hydrology Program (Water Resources Data
Assimilation)
NOAA Science and Technology Infusion Program
(Hydrometeorology Testbed)
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CALJET/PACJET to HMT to SHARE
Major new field studies leverage backbone
provided by HMT and accelerate transitions to
operations
Sporadic traditional field studies
High
Med
Level of field activity
Low
HMT
Hydrometeorological Testbed Provides Continuous
Backbone Effort To facilitate operational tests
and transitions
None
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
09 10 11 12
Year
Future Projects (e.g., SHARE)
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The Midnight Ride (summer 2006)
Boone, NC June 28, 2006
Durham, NC July 11, 2006
Raleigh, NC July 10, 2006
Wilmington, NC July 12, 2006
Boulder, CO July 17-26, 2006
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Whats Next?
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Making the case for NC

• Societal impacts?
• I-40, I-85, and I-95 corridors
• Numerous mid-sized cities
• Extensive growth

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Making the case for NC

• Hydrologic impacts?
• Diverse cold season and warm season weather
• Extensive and diverse river basins
• Diverse land surface types

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Making the case for NC

• Leveraged assets?
• Observing systems of world-class universities
• In-state NOAA and State Climate Office assets
• In-state world-class hydrology meteorology
  experts

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NC Floodplain Mapping Program

• 60 million multi-agency effort.
• LIDAR elev. and DEMs for entire state.
• Use DEMs to perform hydraulic studies.
• HEC-RAS models mapped on DOQs.
• USGS regression equations for peaks.
• Digital maps served on the web.
• Real-time flood inundation mapping.

Floyd
J.B. 2003
US 17, Brunswick Co, NC.
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50 ft
20 ft
5 ft
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Making the case for western NC
http//www.ncdot.org/download/?pdffindinfomounta
in_map.pdf

• Societal impacts?
• I-40
• Extensive growth

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Making the case for western NC
http//www.ncdot.org/download/?pdffindinfomounta
in_map.pdf

• Hydrologic impacts?
• Diverse cold season and warm season weather
• Diverse land surface types

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Making the case for western NC
http//www.ncdot.org/download/?pdffindinfomounta
in_map.pdf

• Leveraged assets?
• Observing systems of the city of Asheville
• NCDC
• NEMAC-RENCI capabilities

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The NOAA Hydrometeorological Testbed Program
Overview, Progress to Date and Future Plans

• David Kingsmill
• University of Colorado / CIRES
• and
• NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
• Physical Sciences Division
• Boulder, CO

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CUAHSI and the USGS in the Neuse River Basin, NC

• Jerad Bales
• U.S. Geological Survey
• April, 28, 2003