Regional Analysis

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The Labor Market Changes.again

• Kyle Uphoff
• Regional Analysis Outreach Manager
• Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic
  Development (DEED)
• Analysis Evaluation Office
• www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

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About DEEDs Regional Analysts

• Collaborate with regional stakeholders on new
  research
• Extend access to DEED reports and statistics
• Conduct presentations and training onregional
  economy labor market
• Original research and analysis intended to
  answer the tough questions
• Five regional analystsstationed across the state

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Where can we (or employers) find this
information? www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
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Where have we been recently?

• The Twin Cities has gained 40,000 jobs-a 2.3
  increase over the last 2 years
• Manufacturing -5,500
• Construction -3,700
• Residential Construction -1,438
• Commercial Construction 351
• Specialty Trades -2,834
• Real Estate -300
• Publishing -1,300
• Telecommunications -800

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Construction is starting to decline How much?
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Cumulative Job Gains in Manufacturing Since 1991
(Twin Cities)
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Most industries have been hiring over the last 2
years

• Healthcare 10,700
• Professional/Technical Svcs. 6,400
• Leisure and Hospitality 6,300
• Social Assistance 5,130
• Credit Intermediation 400 (beware!)
• Retail 4,100
• Medical Supplies Mfg 2,300
• Medical Devices Etc. 1,500
• Insurance 2,300
• Employment Agencies 4,800
• Education 3,900
• Management of Companies 1,000

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Where are we at now?

• Total Unemployment Insurance claims are down 11
  percent from 2006.
• Unemployment currently at 4.1, up 0.7 from
  2006.
• The unemployment situation is still unfolding.
  Layoffs are generally down but there are about
  10,000 more people unemployed.
• Manufacturing and Service Sector indices are
  falling but not in negative territory.

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Where are the jobs now?

• The Minnesota Job Vacancy Survey
• Identify occupations in demand
• Determine education and experience needed for job
  vacancies by region
• Describe job vacancies in terms of
• Wages
• Benefits
• Part-time/full-time
• Temporary/seasonal or permanent
• Numbers and job titles of current openings

www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/publications/jobvacancy/
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Job Vacancy Survey Findings Twin Cities

• 35,150 job openings in the job market during 2nd
  Q 2007

• 2.2 job vacancy rate
• Hiring demand is highest in some high-skill
  occupations
• Architecture and engineering
• Healthcare support
• Management
• Healthcare practitioners and technical
• Computer and mathematical
• Business and financial

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Vacancies are down but the nature of vacancies
has changed as well
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Are we heading for skill shortages? (too early
to tell)

• Occupations gaining the most openings (2002-07)
• Computer-related 552
• Business Fin. Ops 31
• Management 86
• Engineering 181
• Sciences 76
• Education 16
• Healthcare Support 28
• Office/Admin 23
• Art, Design, Ent., Media 60

• Occupations gaining (losing) the least openings
  (2002-07)
• Production 6
• Construction -52
• Personal Svcs. -42
• Protective Services -16
• Transportation -43
• Installation Repair -44
• Building Maint. -51
• Food Preparation -38
• Healthcare Practitioners -31
• Sales -12

55 of total Job Vacancies require more than a
high school diploma
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Future Prospect Which industries and
occupations are projected to grow in coming years?

• Project industry trends for state and regions
• Next, overlay industry growth with state staffing
  matrix
• Result Occupational projections

• www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/tools/projections

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Projections

• Projections are estimated over a 10 year period
  every two years for the state and regions (also
  nationally).
• Projections are largely based on past trends. We
  cannot predict
• Recessions, depressions, energy crises...
• Wars
• Natural Disaster
• Technology change
• Business Processes
• Legislation

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MN Industry Projections Employment Gains
2004-2014
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MN Industry Projections Employment Loss,
2004-2014
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Year of Peak Manufacturing Employment
2000?
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MN Occupational Projections 2004-14
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The aging population will drive healthcare growth
between 2004-2014
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Production Trades Related Occupations
Minnesota, 2004-2014
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Some Occupations will lose jobs
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Employment and Innovation
Employment
Commoditization
Maturation or the Golden Age
Microchips?
Creative Financing?
Computer Mfg?
IT Services?
Expansion/ Speculation?
Correction
Inception
Nanotech?
Time
Biotech?
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Workforce shortages or skills shortages
(2004-2014)

• Skills areas projected to be most utilized by
  future occupations
• Reading Comprehension
• Active Listening
• Speaking
• Writing
• Active Learning
• Coordination
• Monitoring
• Instructing
• Critical Thinking

• Knowledge areas projected to be most utilized by
  future occupations
• Customer Service
• Mathematics
• Clerical
• Education/Training
• English
• Sales/marketing
• Psychology
• Computers/electronics
• Administration Mgmt.

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Demographics Working in an era of shortage
Labor Availability- Twin Cities Region
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While renewed economic growth will tighten the
labor market, demographics play an even bigger
role.
How long will they stay In the labor force?
How productive can they be?
Will there be enough?
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Future Prospects for Local Employers

• Increasing labor shortage as the economy emerges
  from the shadow of recession.
• Wage pressure for skilled workers.
• Increasing use of technology to increase
  productivity.
• Greater use of customized training- particularly
  important for small employers.
• Increased diversity in the workplace
• Communication Issues
• Assistive technology and flexible hours etc.

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Where can I get this information?

• DEED Website www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
• DEED Publications Hotline [phone]
• Kyle Uphoff 651-259-7185
• DEED LMI Help Line 651.282.2714
• Twin Cities Regional Labor Market Analyst
• Rachel Hillman
• 651.642.0728
• rachel.hillman_at_state.mn.us