Climate Change Potential Biological Consequences

1
Climate Change Potential Biological Consequences

• Alan Journet
• Department of Biology Environmental Science
  Program Southeast Missouri State University
• E-mail ajournet_at_semo.eduWeb
  http//cstl-csm.semo.edu/journet
• Whats New?

2
What Do You Think You Know?

• What is climate change / global warming?
• What is causing it?
• What biological consequences do you know or can
  you imagine?

3
Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
1979
http//www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/
2003/1023esuice.html
4
Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
2003
Greenland
Canada
Data U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite
Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager
(SSMI). Credit NASA
http//www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/
2003/1023esuice.html
5
September 2008 NASA's Aqua satellite
Arctic perennial sea ice has been decreasing at a
rate of 9 per decade.
If Greenland ice cap totally melts ? 20 ft sea
level rise
http//www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2008/09/10/ice-
passage.html
6
http//nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_im
ages/N_timeseries.png
7
Polar Bear Ursus maritimus
8
Al Gores An Inconvenient Truth
Winter on frozen ice flows feeding on seals.
9
Gives the concept of Ice Fishing a whole new
meaning
10
Winter on ice flows feeding on seals that come to
ice holes
Spring Summer ice melts bears move to land
SummerMaintain themselves and nourish cubs off
the winter fat
11
Summer on land giving birth
http//www.alaskastock.com/resultsframe.asp?gs1t
xtkeys1PolarBeartitlePolar20Bear20pictures2
0-20photos20of20Polar20Bears20by20Alaska20S
tock20Images
12
Winter on ice flows feeding on seals that come to
ice holes
Spring Summer ice melts bears move to land
Fall / Autumn return to Ice again
SummerMaintain themselves and nourish cubs off
the winter fat
13
http//www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/mar/04/
climatechange.activists
Because ice flows are melting feeding
habitatis diminishing.
Bears cannot find sufficient ice drown while
searching, do not fatten enough tosurvive
summer, More bears are seen near human
habitations searchingfor food.
http//www.alaskastock.com/resultsframe.asp?gs1t
xtkeys1PolarBeartitlePolar20Bear20pictures2
0-20photos20of20Polar20Bears20by20Alaska20S
tock20Images
14
Global Temperatures 1880 2005Goddard Institute
for Space Studies
IPCC 2007 11 of the last 12 years are among
twelve hottest on record
BUT WHY?
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/
15
The Keeling Curve 1958 - 2008
Photosynthesis gtRespiration
Respiration
1700s 275 ppm
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve
16
http//www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/a
r4-wg1-spm.pdf
17
Other Anthropogenic Gases
METHANE Fossil fuel production Livestock Rice
cultivation Burning biomass wood etc. Waste
management
CH4
But CO2 is not the only gas increasing since
1750
So what, you may ask?
To answer that a little physical detour is
needed
N2O
NOxFossil fuel combustion Fertilizers Nitrogen
fixing plants
18
The Greenhouse Effect
And your car as well.
Why the glasshouse heats up
19
IT ALL STARTS WITH INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION
Higherenergy

• The atmosphere absorbs some of the incoming
  solar radiation
• Ozone is especially important.

20
What Happens to this Radiation?
21
The Actual Greenhouse Effect
Solar light rays pass through glass.
Solar rays hit surfaces ? turn to infra red
heat ? absorbed ? radiated back as heat.
Glass is barrier to heat radiation.
Protected from convection currents i.e wind
the greenhouse interior heats up.
This is why your car gets unbearably hot in the
parking lot during summer.
A decent starting point or model but not
totally parallel.
22
The Atmospheric GreenhouseEffect"
NOTE Problem is in loweratmosphere which is
where we live
Infra-red heat
Gases in loweratmosphere absorbthe heat and
retain it does not escape into space as
readily.
Visible light
Earth
Current ave. temp app 15oC or 59oF
Warming
Warming
Without these gases temp -150C to -300C
Cooling
23
Positive and Negative Atmospheric
CO2
N2O
CH4
24
400,000 years of CO2
Nearly ? today
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
25
400,000 years of CO2
and last 1000 years
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
26
The CO2 / Temp Pattern
1940-1970Slight Cooling
Temperature
Carbon dioxide
Aerosols releasedafter WWII
http//www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/cu
rrent/lectures/samson/climate_patterns/
27
Carbon dioxide now and futureAl Gores An
Inconvenient Truth
CO2 Possible Future
600
CO2 Now
If the CO2 ?Temperaturerelationship holds, what
will the temperature be?
We can nowgo back 650,000years
Temperature Now
300,000
200,000
100,000
Now
28
Two Thousand Years of Temperature
http//commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image2000_Year_
Temperature_Comparison.png
29
Finally Definitive, Irrefutable, Confirmation
of Global Warming
30
Some More Questions

• Do you think there is debate in the peer-reviewed
  scientific literature among scientists
  (atmospheric scientists / meteorologists)
  regarding the existence of climate change and its
  causes?
• How about in the media / blogs / web sites / or
  among politicians and the public?

31
In solving problems which should carry the most
weight?
Evidence, Facts, Discernible Reality, Reason,
Rational analysis of the world as it exists
Illusions, Distortions, Deceptions, Half Truths,
Claims about the world as it might be or as
wed like it to be.
32
Some Erroneous Debates

• Tobacco and Health Effects.
• Tobacco Company campaign to manufacture doubt.
• Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and the atmospheric
  ozone hole.
• Dont just accept what you hear especially from
  the media check reliable credible sources for
  yourself.
• Ignore political commentators and web sites /
  blogs that display dogmatic pre-determined biased
  positions.

33
Who Are the Experts?

• 1) IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
  Change WMU UNEP, 1988 4 Reports
• WG I The Physical Science gt 600 Relevant
  ScientistsPlus gt 450 Reviewers.
• WGII Impacts, Adaptation Vulnerability gt300
  ExpertsPlus gt 750 reviewers
• WG III Mitigation of Climate Change gt 250
  ExpertsPlus gt 400 Reviewers

What Did They Conclude (2007)?

• Global Warming is happening.
• There is a 90 probability that human activity -
  increasing greenhouse gases - is the cause.

34
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC
Established by U.N. Environment Programme and
World Meteorological Union.Composed of thousands
of atmospheric scientists and climate scientists
throughout the world who review literature,
evaluate what is happening, and provide
consensussummaries.

• AR-4 Fourth Assessment Report Feb 2007
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
  
• Most of the observed increase in globally
  averaged temperatures since the mid 20th century
  is very likely due to the observed increase in
  anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
  
• Very likely gt 90

35
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC

• The understanding of anthropogenic warming and
  cooling influences on climate has improved since
  the Third Assessment Report TAR 2001 leading to
  very high confidence that the globally averaged
  net effect of human activities since 1750 has
  been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of
  1.6 (range 0.6 2.4)
• very high confidence gt 90

36
Who Are the Skeptics?

• Mainly non-scientists or scientists with no
  relevant expertise.
• Staff of institutes and think tanks funded to a
  significant extent by oil corporations.
• e.g. between 1998 2008 Exxon/Mobil has run a
  disinformation campaign manufacturing doubt in
  the publics mind while contributing 23 million
  to the skeptic organizations.
• Individuals committed to a political philosophy
  that rejects on principle regulations to address
  environmental problems.
• A small number of contrarian scientists with
  relevant expertise publishing in vanity press,
  non-peer reviewed journals, or journals in
  unrelated fields without editors knowledgeable
  enough to peer-review legitimately.
• Overall a small number of individuals (app. 15)
  are driving the skeptic movement.

http//cstl.semo.edu/SEMOCPI/Information/IPCC-for-
-against.htm
37
Sampling The Skeptics

• Cannot possibly address all the weird and
  esoteric criticisms launched by the skeptics of
  climate change theoryfocus on 3.
• There is no scientific consensus.
• There is no climate change i.e. global warming is
  a myth.
• Climate is changing, but its a natural cycle.

38
1-There is no scientific consensus.

• Important to appreciate how scientific consensus
  is reached
• It is a legitimate scientific occurrence.
• Through publication in peer-reviewed primary
  scientific journals.
• Through discussions and exchange of information
  and ideas at relevant conferences.
• Through evaluations of research and reports by
  National Academies.

39
Is There a Scientific Consensus?

• Scientific consensus develops from the judicious
  evaluation of data by knowledgeable experts
• This is the study of discernible reality.
• The test of consensus is the peer-reviewed
  scientific literature where researchers
  communicate and exchange ideas and subject
  conclusions to expert review and evaluation.
• It is not based on the views of politicians and
  political commentators who maintain pre-conceived
  truths that evidence cannot shake.
• It is not what novelists or internet bloggers
  think.
• In the relevant peer-reviewed literature there
  simply is no published research contradicting the
  IPCC conclusions.

40
Is There scientific dispute with IPCC conclusions?

• Oreskes (Science 2004) reported on a sample of
  928 relevant papers in the peer-reviewed
  literature
• not one challenged the consensus view.
• Science Editor Donald Kennedy pointed out
  skeptic manuscripts were simply not being
  submitted.
• The National Academy of Science evaluated the
  2004 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and
  confirmed its conclusions.

41
Scientific Organizations Endorsing IPCC

• InterAcademy Council
• Joint Science Academies
• European Academy of Sciences and Arts 
• Network of African Science Academies
• U.S. National Academies
• U.S. National Research Council
• International Council for Science
• European Science Foundation
• American Association for the Advancement of
  Science
• Federation of American Scientists
• World Meteorological Organization
• American Meteorological Society
• U.K. Royal Meteorological Society
• Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic
  Society
• Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
• Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric
Sciences International Union for Quaternary
Research American Quaternary Association Stratigra
phy Commission of the Geological Society of
London International Union of Geodesy and
Geophysics International Union of Geological
Sciences European Geosciences Union Canadian
Federation of Earth Sciences Geological Society
of America American Geophysical Union American
Astronomical Society American Institute of
Physics American Physical Society American
Chemical Society Engineers Australia U.S. Federal
Climate Change Science Program. Union of
Concerned Scientists
There is not one major professional organization
that rejects the IPCC consensus
42
Conclusion
Meanwhile according to the Mainstream Media
there is still scientific debate

• In reality, to claim there is no scientific
  consensus that serious scientific debate
  remains is simply absurd.

43
2-There is no global warming.
Michael Crichtons U.S. Temperature Graph
1) Michael Crichtons State of Fear was
published in 2004, so the data used could have
been more recent than the last century.
2) But Crichton stopped the 5 year running mean
the darker line in 1995.
3) So, lets extend the lines to include more
current data.
When does the line terminate?
44
U.S Average Temperature Trend
Updated
The Crichton Graph
The pattern is revealed
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
45
There isnt a global temperature increase its
just a function of the Urban Heat Island effect
A composite of hundreds of satellite images all
taken at night.
If this were the case, at what latitudes would
the temperature anomalies be?
http//gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/10/26/224634
/48
46
So, where is it?
http//gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/10/26/224634
/48
47
Temperature Change at Different latitudes
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.B.lrg
.gif
48
Warming is not EqualAl Gores An Inconvenient
Truth
49
The temperature is actually declining
Christopher (Lord) Monckton of Brenchley
Data from the Hadley Center University of
Alabama (Huntsville) show a cooling planet.
50
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.C.lrg
.gif
51
Global Temperatures 1880 2007Goddard Institute
for Space Studies
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lr
g.gif /
52
American Physical Society

• The following article has not undergone any
  scientific peer review, since that is not normal
  procedure for American Physical Society
  newsletters. The American Physical Society
  reaffirms the following position on climate
  change, adopted by its governing body, the APS
  Council, on November 18, 2007 "Emissions of
  greenhouse gases from human activities are
  changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the
  Earth's climate."

53
Is the Hadley Center suggesting cooling?
http//hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/c
omparison.html
54
And what does the University of Alabama
(Huntsville) conclude?
June 2008 Newswise Global trend since Nov. 16,
1978 0.13 C per decade A La Niña Pacific
Ocean cooling event continues to drive tropical
and global temperatures Globally, June 2008 was
the coolest June since 1999.
55
Conclusion
Even if we cannot prove the planet is warming
the data are quite compelling
56
Carbon Dioxide in the Future
There are severalscenarios.
Without adequate responsethe future could be
bleak.
http//maps.grida.no/go/graphic/past_and_future_CO
2_concentrations
57
Future Temperature Range
There is much doubt depends on what we do.
What does the PrecautionaryPrinciple urge?
The last Ice Age (20,000YBP) How much colder
was it?
Like a Cancer Diagnosis We know the disease
The prognosis dependson what we do.
http//epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html
58
Warming is not EqualAl Gores An Inconvenient
Truth
59
Overall Regional Trends
http//www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/fig2-9.htm
While global average increases, some areas
decrease.
60
20th C Rainfall PatternsGores An Inconvenient
Truth
Note some areas suffer increased precipitation,
(i.e. floods) others decreased precipitation
(i.e. droughts).
61
Biomes of the U.S.
Sierra Mtn.EvergreenForests
TransitionalConiferous Forests
Grasslands
Rocky Mtn. EvergreenForests
EasternDeciduousForests
Deserts
62
What Determines These Biomes?

• Ave.Temperature.
• Ave. Rainfall.

Biomes develop characteristic critical soils.
X
63
Biomes of the world.
So what, you might ask?
These control the agricultural and forestry
potential of our land
64
Increased CO2 is Beneficial?
Plant and animal cells differ
Plant Cell
Animal Cell
C6H12O6 6O2 ? 6H20 6CO2 Cellular Respiration
6CO2 6H20 ? C6H12O6 6O2Photosynthesis
Mitochondrion
Chloroplast
65
Increased CO2 is Beneficial?

• Skeptics Argument
• Plants use CO2 in photosynthesis.
• Animals produce CO2 in respiration.
• Increased CO2 must be beneficial to plants.
• Indian agricultural productivity has increased.
• See any problems???
• 1 and 2 are typical half truths
• Plants both photosynthesize respire
• Naïvely assumes CO2 is limiting factor in all
  plant growth.
• Assumes all plant species in a community will
  increase the same, i.e. no competitive
  differences exist amongst them.
• But increased temperature decreases crop yield.
• Is Indian increase due to CO2? Why accept this?

66
Von Liebigs Law of the Minimum Plant growth
is limited by the critical factor that Is in
shortest supply. In fact in most cases , soil
nutrients Nitrogen (N), Phosphorous (P),
Potassium (K),
CO2 enrichment affects annual plant communities
both in terms of productivity and species
composition The affect of CO2 on such systems
may depend upon other resources such as light
and nutrients. Zangerl and Bazzaz 1984
Oecologia 623. 
Plant species that seem to respond best are early
successional species (disturbed area invaders),
spp we call weeds. So consequence may be
.more herbicides
67
Crop Production Climate

• Just like natural biomes, crops are grown under
  optimal climatic conditions temperature
  precipitation.
• Corn is a water intensive crop.
• Rule of Thumbeach 10C temp. increase ? 10 crop
  yield reduction.
• Crops cannot just move north.
• Corn currently grows in Iowa, wheat in Kansas,
• Not only because of ideal climate which can
  move north,
• but also
• because of ideal soils and photoperiod which
  cannot move north.

Brown L.R., 2006 Plan B 2.0 Rescuing a Planet
Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble. W.W.
Norton, Co. N.Y. London 365 pp.
Sharon Begley 2008 Heat Your Vegetables Newsweek
May 5, p. 48
68
Ectotherms cold-blooded creatures are
temperature dependent.
As planet warms they move
And to HigherElevations
69
Why is that?
Ambient temp,body temp, and metabolic
rate relationships of a typicalEctotherm.
70
Cabbage white caterpillar, Pieris
rapae,development is temperaturedependent.
71
Cabbage white caterpillar, Pieris
rapae, requires 174day degrees above
10.5oC. At 11.5oC takes 174 days At 12.5oC
takes 87 days
72
SaguaroCereus giganteus -Northern limit
of distribution is where a day without
thawing occurs. Can withstand a night of
freezing,but must thaw next day.
73
Closed circlesat least 0.5 days w/o thawing
Open Circles No days w/o thawing
ARIZONA
74
Wild madderRubia peregrina,in Europe.N. limit
is Januaryisotherm of 4.5oC - Average conditions
What happens if the planet warms?
75
Ectotherm Range Expansion
Africanized honeybeesWhen conditions
areappropriate, species expand their ranges -
at a rate allowedby the mobility of their
dispersal phases.
Molles 2002 Ecology
76
Bay Checkerspot butterflyEuphydryas editha
bayensis
Threatened west coast species Elimination of
populations at southern end of range has shifted
mean location north 92 km.
77
Distribution of Yellow birch Betula
alleghaniensis follows the 2000/5300 DEGD lines
Too few dd
Too hot
78
Tree dispersal since last ice age20,000 ybp
Molles 2002 Ecology
79
What About the Future?
Tree species are limited by climatic conditions
A common tree here now but we will no longer
be in range
80
As the optimum range of tree species is adjusted,
so is that for other spp., biotic communities,
and forestry and agricultural systems.
81
Biome Climate Shifts
Climatic optimum forall will shiftNorth but
soilswill stay where they are. If biomes move
N,so will fauna.
82
Eastern U.S. Current Forest Map
http//www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/trees_alltoget
her.htm l
83
Eastern U.S. Future Forest Map
http//www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/trees_alltoget
her.htm l
84
BorealForestDistributionRange - N. Pole View
85
U.S. Water Usage
Jeneen Interlandi Rivers Running Dry Newsweek
(April 28th) p. 48
86
Changing U.S Growth Cold Hardiness Zones
http//www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm
87
Do Endotherms Respond?

• Ectotherms generally fluctuate with external
  temperatures
• But
• Endotherms generate their own heat.
• Are they climate dependent?

88
Thermoneutral zone patterns
Molles M, 2002 Ecology
89
The common vampire bat Desmodus rotundusN.
limit is mean January isotherm of 10oC
90
Common vampire bat Desmodus rotundus
Several Years Ago
10oC isotherm
91
Vampire BatDesmodus rotundas
More recently
92
Virginia OpossumDidelphis virginiana
A Tropical Species

• Can maintain body temp of 340C in ambiental temp
  ? -70C.
• At -100C can only maintain body temp. for 20
  minutes

93
Nine-Banded ArmadilloDasypus novemcinctus
A Tropical Species

• Northern limit
• Mean January temperature gt 20C.
• lt 24 annual freeze-free days.
• 38 cm annual precipitation.
• Inc. temp ? expand range N.

http//www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j
.1365-2699.1996.tb00024.x
94
Whats Happening at Yosemite National Park?
Mammalogist/ Ecologist Joseph Grinnell and
colleagues studied area in early 20th
C. Recently U.C. Berkeley emeritus Professor Jim
Patton returned to the area and undertook repeat
sampling.
95
Pinyon MousePeromyscus truei
http//www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2008/1
0/09_grinnell.shtmlmontane
Alpine ChipmunkTamias alpinus
- Previously found below 7,800 ft. - Now not
found below 9,800 ft.and running out of real
estate.

• Previously found in Eastern slope in Pinyon pine
  / juniper belt.
• Now in higher elevation montane pine forest.

Of 28 species, half expandedrange upwards while
others shifted range May seem ok but
competition?
96
https//exchange.semo.edu/exchange/ajournet/Inbox/
RE20Science20article20on20Yosemite20Mammal2
0shifts.EML/261.pdf/C58EA28C-18C0-4a97-9AF2-036E93
DDAFB3/261.pdf?attach1
Tamias alpinusAlpine chipmunk
Neotoma cinereaBushy-tailed woodrat
Peromyscus trueiPinyon mouse
97
https//exchange.semo.edu/exchange/ajournet/Inbox/
RE20Science20article20on20Yosemite20Mammal2
0shifts.EML/261.pdf/C58EA28C-18C0-4a97-9AF2-036E93
DDAFB3/261.pdf?attach1
28 Species
Green Significant Expansion Red Significant
Contraction
98
Eastern Phoebe Sayornis phoebe,limited by
average conditionsthe 4oC isotherm
99
The 4oC isotherm, with range deviations shaded.
100
Primary Information Sourcefor Missouri

• Missouri Chapter of the Society for Conservation
  Biology
• Missouri Natural Resources ConferenceJanuary
  February at Tan-Tar-A, Osage Beach
• 2008 Workshop The Potential Impact of Climate
  Change on Missouri Biodiversity.
• 2009 Workshop Managing Natural Resources in a
  State Undergoing Climate Change.

101
18,000 - 20,000
Over the last2 millions years4 glaciations have
occurred
170,000 120,000
480,000 230,000
800,000 600,000
102
Four glaciations struck N.A. in the Pleistocene
Most recent Wisconsin
Beringian Land Bridge
20,000 years ago YA or YBP
X- Cape Girardeau
103
Missouri Annual Average Temperature (1895-2006)
1938
1921
1954
1931
1946
1904
1924
1917
1979
1895
Warm Period
Cool Period
Courtesy Pat Guinan, University of Missouri-
Columbia
104
Missouri Average Winter Temperature
(Dec-Jan-Feb,1895-2006)
1931-32
91-92
99-00
97-98
01-02
Temperature (F)
Warm Period
Cool Period
1935-36
1904-05
1917-18
1977-78
1978-79
Courtesy Pat Guinan, University of Missouri-
Columbia
105
Missouri Average Spring Temperature (Mar-Apr-May,
1895-2007)
1977
1991
1946
2007
1938
1983
1947
1924
1984
1960
Warm Period
Cool Period
106
Missouri Average Summer Temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug,
1895-2007)
1934
1936
1901
1980
1954
1992
2004
1927
1950
Warm Period
1915
Cool Period
107
Missouri Average Autumn Temperature (Sep-Oct-Nov,
1895-2006)
1931
1963
1998
1938
1971
1951
1896
1996
1993
Warm Period
1976
Cool Period
108
Missouris Future
Higher Average Temperature w/o more rain ? ?
Courtesy Pat Guinan, University of Missouri-
Columbia
109
As goes Illinois - so goes Missouri.
Now
By 2030summer
By 2030winter
By 2095 winter
By 2095 summer
110
Potential Climate Change Consequences for Missouri

• Increased CO2 ? More Biomass
• Higher Temperature Drought More Biomass ?
• More Fire

Courtesy Modified from Tim Nigh, Missouri
Department of Conservation
111
Current
Climate Change
Very Low
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Woodland Potential This will likely- Increase in
Hilly, Rugged and Floodplain Landscapes Decrease
in higher, flatter, Upland Prairie Plains
Landscapes
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
112
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
Savanna Woodland Wildlife
Savanna Woodland Communities
113
Very Low
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Prairie Potential This will likely - Increases
in all Landscapes moving from Upland Flats and
Dissected Plains into adjacent Hills
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
114
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
Grassland Wildlife
Prairie Communities
Courtesy Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department
of Conservation
115
-Moist Climate Change
Pine-Oak Woodland Ecosystem Dispersal Under
Warm-Dry Climate Change
Increase Prevalence within Current
Distribution Expand its Range
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
116
Range ShiftClimate Change and the American
goldfinch
If floral habitats shift North also, presumably
will fauna
117
NWF-ABC Report and Model(Developed by Jeff Price)

• Bird distributions from Breeding Bird Survey
• Coupled with climatic variables (temperature,
  precipitation, extremes)
• Project future climate, assuming a doubling of
  CO2 - Canadian Climate Center data.
• Models general patterns, not specifics

The Birdwatchers Guide to Global Warming
http//www.abcbirds.org/newsandreports/globalwarmi
ng/Missouri.pdf
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
118
Habitat Loss / Alteration
BIRD PROBLEMS
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
119
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
120
Hypothesized Mechanisms Asynchronous Arrival and
Food Availability

• Long-distance migrants appear less likely to
  alter migration timing, but food is available
  much earlier
• Migrants often respond to photoperiod but
• Insect food at nesting location responds to
  day-degrees.so food surge is earlier and
  precedes nesting.

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
121
Bird Behavior Gores An Inconvenient Truth
Historical Pattern1980
Current Pattern
122
Hypothesized Mechanisms Shift in Migration Timing

• Numerous examples world-wide
• e.g. Of 96 species of migrant birds in Manitoba
  in a 63-year study, 27 now arrive significantly
  earlier in spring, only 2 later
• Of 13 species in a North American study, 6 now
  delay fall departure
• Some species are foregoing migration at higher
  rates

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
123
Hypothesized Mechanisms Change in Clutch
Initiation Date

• Multiple examples from field studies
• Tree Swallows have advanced clutch initiation 9
  days in the last 30 years, on average
• one of the earliest biological consequences
  reported

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
124
Species whose future climatic range mayexclude
Missouri in summer
Species whose climatic summer ranges in Missouri
might contract
Species whose climatic summer ranges in Missouri
might expand
Species whose future climatic summerranges might
include Missouri
Species whose climatic summer ranges in Missouri
might undergo little change
125
HerpetofaunaGeneral patterns of response

• Range shifts
• Changes in developmental phenology
• Behavioral or morphological changes
• Shifts in genetic frequencies

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
126
Meta-analyses

• Parmesan and Yohe 2003
• Range limit shifts
• 6.1 km/decade polewards or 1m/decade upwards
• Birds, butterflies, alpine herbs (99 species)
• Phenology shifts
• Development advance of 2.3 days earlier/decade
• Herbs, shrubs, trees, birds, butterflies,
  amphibians (172 species)
• Root et al. 2003
• 143 species
• 80 of species with change show shifts in
  expected direction

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
127
Amphibians
Reptiles

• Dessicate easily
• Shell-less eggs laid in water or damp places
• Many depend on ephemeral wetlands

• Resist dessication
• Eggs with leathery shell to reduce water loss
• For some, sex of offspring depends on incubation
  temperature

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
128
Breeding phenology

• Warming trend since 1900 correlated with earlier
  anuran calling in NY (Gibbs and Breisch 2001)
• British amphibians breeding earlier over past 17
  years (Beebee 1995)
• But pattern not universal (Blaustein et al. 2001)

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
129
Wetland hydroperiod

• Importance of temporary waters
• Intermediate hydroperiods best
• Early drying may result in zero recruitment

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
130
Temperature-dependentsex determination

• Sex ratios of turtles can be highly correlated
  with air temperatures (Janzen 1994)
• Most nests produce a single sex
• Eggs gt 30oC ? females lt 30oC ? males
• Behavioral or physiological compensation?
• Nest site selection and phenology (Doody et al.
  2006, Ewert et al. 2005)
• Change in pivotal temperatures (Ewert et al.
  2005, but not Doody et al. 2006)

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
131
Additional factors
Climate change
Decreased female body condition and length
Reduced pond depth
Increased exposure to UV-B
Reduced egg production
Increased susceptibility to disease
Increased female mortality
Amphibian declines
Modified from Reading 2007 and Pounds 2001
Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
132
Carbon Dioxide and the Oceans
Atmosphere
CO2
CO2
CO2
Fossil Fuel Combustion
Vegetation
Oceans
H2O CO2 ? H2CO3 ? H HCO3 Water
Carbon dioxide ? carbonic acid
Half the CO2 released since 1750 has ended up
here
http//earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/245
133
NOTE A 0.1 drop in pH doubling of H
http//earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/245
134
What Could Happen
http//earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/245
135
So what?

• Marine Calcifiers (create shell or skeleton out
  of calcium carbonate)
• Mollusks
• Crustaceans
• Reef-forming Corals
• Some Algae
• Some Phytoplankton

136
Obstacles for Marine Calcifiers - 1

• Calcium Carbonate Needed for skeletons or shells.
• Carbonic Acid releases Hydrogen ions (bad)
• -Carbonate Ion binds with Hydrogen ?
  unavailable.
• Shell-building organisms can not use this ion for
  synthesis

137
Obstacles for Marine Calcifiers - 2

• Shells that have managed to form are now more
  likely to dissolve under low pH.
• Lower waters naturally more acidic
• Saturation Horizon expected to rise

138
Acidosis
Obstacles for Marine Calcifiers - 3

• Acidosis build-up of carbonic acid in body
  fluids
• Disrupts growth, respiration, reproduction.
• Affects Fish, squid, and countless other organisms

139
Loss of Habitat

• Many Marine Calcifiers provide shelter for other
  oceanic organisms.

http//valleasoleado.com/assets/images/coral_reef_
5.jpg
http//buy.tickets.streamintech.com/admin/EventIma
ges/CoralReef3.jpg
140

• Krill
• Phytoplankton
• Algae

141
Doesnt just disrupt the Ocean
http//www.absc.usgs.gov/research/seabird_foragefi
sh/marinehabitat/home.html
142
Healthy Coral
143
Coral Growth factors

• Nutrients
• Salinity
• Irradiance
• Turbidity
• Sedimentation
• Temperature
• pH
• Calcium Carbonate Saturation

144
Progression with time
145
Bleached Coral
146
Biological Consequences of Climate Change

• I hope I have convinced you of one point
• The consequences are NOT trivial