Proposal Title

1
Proposal Title

• Combined GLM/ABI Lightning Warning Product
• Team Members
• Dennis Buechler (UAH/SPoRT)
• Geoffrey Stano (ENSCO/SPoRT)
• Winds AWG (Lead - Jaime Daniels)
• Collaborators
• Gary Jedlovec (NASA/MSFC) remote sensing
  guidance
• Richard Blakeslee (NASA/MSFC) lightning
  expertise
• GLM AWG R3 (Bob Boldi, Monte Bateman, Doug
  Mach)
• Huntsville NWS test bed evaluation

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Project Summary
Combined GLM/ABI Lightning Warning Product
Combine GLM lightning and ABI measurements to
track and trend storm lightning and satellite
characteristics to develop a probabilistic
lightning nowcast ( 0-30 min).
Problem Current lightning products available to
forecasters only display lightning data from last
few minutes. Need for advance warning of
lightning threat.
Example of lightning probability using only
lightning data (current GOES-R3 activity).
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Why Combined ABI/GLM?

• The Lightning Warning Product from current R3
  work uses only lightning data. Therefore
  lightning must be occurring before a forecast can
  be made.
• The use of ABI observations will enable nowcast
  of lightning probability in the next 30 min.
• Cloud motion winds derived from ABI data will be
  used to forecast the lightning probability field
  over the next 30 min.
• Investigate various ABI spectral bands.
• The higher spatial/temporal resolution of ABI
  visible and IR observations will enable better
  identification of overshooting cloud tops and
  rapidly growing (cooling) clouds than the current
  GOES.

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Relevance to GOES-R Program

• Earlier lightning warning will help save lives
• Lightning accounts for 23.5 of weather related
  deaths in the U.S. (62 per year). Most people
  tend to be struck by lightning near beginning or
  end of storm life-cycle.
• This activity supports NOAA Mission goal(s)
• Weather Water (high impact weather, severe
  storms)
• Commerce Transportation (aviation weather
  hazards)
• Ecosystems (forest and wildland fires)

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Methodology

• Examine satellite cloud properties prior to
  lightning activity
• Develop relationships between various ABI
  parameters and the probability of lightning
  occurring within the next 30 min.
• Derive mesoscale wind field from ABI cloud
  motion.
• Develop short-term probabilistic forecast map.
• Validate the ABI-derived product.
• Blend GLM-only and ABI lightning probability
  fields.
• Work with forecasters at HUN NWS
• Demonstrate potential of product
• Develop useful visualizations
• Prior to lightning occurrence, ABI will provide
  the basis for lightning probability forecast.
• Just after lightning activity begins within a
  storm, both GLM and ABI will contribute to the
  forecast.
• Later in the storm life cycle, the lightning data
  will be the primary driver of the lightning
  probability.

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Data

• GLM Proxy Data
• Use lightning data produced by GLM AWG from
  various available total lightning detection
  networks.
• Lightning cell tracking will be computed using
  the algorithm developed by the GLM R3 (Boldi).
• ABI Proxy Data
• Use data from current GOES satellites in rapid
  scan mode to simulate temporal GOES-R
  observations for selected case studies.
• Tailored ABI proxy parameters and winds will be
  produced by the Winds AWG for the selected case
  studies.

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Reason to fund this year

• Meet deadline (Spring 2011) for GOES-R Proving
  Ground Program evaluation.
• Spring/Summer 2010 - ABI validation results.
• Summer/Fall 2010 - ABI/GLM-only intercomparisons.
• Fall 2010 Preliminary testbed results (HUN
  NWS).
• Begin to integrate into AWIPS/NAWIPS/AWIPS II.
• AWIPS II installation at NWS offices occurring
  within next year.

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Refined Budget Estimate