Vermont Power Supply

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Vermont Power Supply

• September 30, 2005
• Dave Lamont
• Vermont Department of Public Service

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US Electricity Source Mix 1999 and 2003
1999
2003
Source DOE EIA
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Regional Electric Mix 1990, 1999, and 2003
1999
2003
1990
Source Data DOE EIA
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Vermont Electricity Mix 2003
Instate Source Mix
Committed Resource Source Mix
Source DOE EIA
Source DPS
However some utilities have very different
profiles
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(No Transcript)
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Vermont Monthly Avg Wholesale Price (March-03 to
Aug-05)
302
55
Source ISO-NE
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Electricity Cost/Price Projections
Source DPS
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Vermont - Power Prices for Committed Resources
Forward Power Prices (DPS 2003) Recent
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
53.22
52.47
51.74
51.26
50.58
47.96
45.34
42.73
40.11
45.47
50.19
52.06
56.81
57.94
55.13
Vermont Yankee 42.00/MWh All Hours Hydro
Quebec 68.00/MWh 75 Cap Factor Owned
Hydro 30.00/MWh Some Dispatch IPP 120.00/MWh
Run of River Wood
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Future Contract Prices in New England

• Average Contract Price for Energy January and
  February are approximately 150/MWh 160/MWh
• Some moderation, but futures prices remain at
  elevated levels for several years

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Electricity sales- slow growth
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Slow growth in annual peak, summer peak rising
faster
VERMONT STATE PEAK LOAD - POWER PERIOD
PERIOD NOVEMBER 1, TO OCTOBER 31
1,100
1.80
1,000
1.70
900
1.60
800
700
1.50
600
Thousands
KW
1.40
500
1.30
400
300
1.20
200
Power Year Peak
Summer Peak
1.10
100
Power Year Peak - 1,037,020 - December 2004
SummerPeak - 986,060 - August 2002
0
1.00
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
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So. Why Do We Need Transmission???
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Locational Marginal Price (LMP)
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GO SOX !!!!!!!