The Five Orders of Ignorance

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The Five Orders of Ignorance
Phillip Armour CORVUS INTERNATIONAL INC.
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The Five Orders of Ignorance

• 0th Order Ignorance (0OI) Lack of Ignorance
• I (probably) know something
• 1st Order Ignorance (1OI) Lack of Knowledge
• I do not know something
• 2nd Order Ignorance (2OI) Lack of Awareness
• I do not know that I do not know something
• 3rd Order Ignorance (3OI) Lack of Process
• I do not know a suitably effective way to find
  out that I dont know that I dont know something
• 4th Order Ignorance (4OI) Meta-Ignorance
• I do not know about the Five Orders of Ignorance

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The Five Orders of Ignorance

• Most of our work is in reducing 2OI 3OI
• 0OI the answerthis requires very little
  effort
• 1OI the questionusually requires little effort
• 2OI we dont even have the question
• It is the source of most problems in estimating
• The reason why it is hard to test
• Why we have problems with methods and models
• 3OI we dont have an effective process
• have to spend time and effort creating one
• Therefore, most of our effort is in 2OI and 3OI

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Of Zeppelins and Jet Planes

• A Metaphor for modern projects the olden days
  (25 years ago)

A Predictable Path
Success is a function of accurate measurement
and precise control
Attr(GUN)
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Of Zeppelins and Jet Planes

• A Metaphor for modern projects todays projects

Unpredictable Path
Unpredictable Path
Success is a function of capability and
flexibility
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Why Agile? Why Now?

• The Jet Plane metaphor represents todays
  projects. Success is no longer a function of
• Predictability
• Measurement
• Management Control
• Process

• Success is now
• Less certainintrinsically higher risk
• A function of local capability
• A function of flexibility
• Dependent on sheer speed

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Why Agile? Why Now?
Increase in 2OI There are simply more things we
do not know we do not know

• Mathematics is a DISCOVERY ProcessNot a
  production processwe dont know in advance what
  we need to know. Our job is to find this out