Ron Trostle

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• ???????? 23-24, 2008

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???????????? ??????????????? 6 ??????????
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1 ? 2007 ???? ???? 6 ?????????? ??????????????
(???, ????????, E?, ?????, ??????, ? ?????????)
?????????? 96 ???????????? ?????????? ? ????.
Source FO Licht, various reports
3
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Source International Monetary Fund
International Financial Statistics
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Food commodity prices Indices for selected crops
and total food
Source International Monetary Fund
International Financial Statistics
5
Prices of many commodities rose even more
585
329
130
Source International Monetary Fund
International Financial Statistics
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Biofuels productionLargest producers
Million Gallons
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Source FO Licht, various reports
7
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???????? Compiled from data associated with
generating Baseline Projections to 2017
8
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1/ ??????????????, ??????, ? ????????????
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???????? USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections
to 2017.
9
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???? 1980/81 - 2002/03 ?? ????????? ?
2002/03 - 2007/08
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Factors contributing to higher food commodity
prices

• 1996 1998 2000 2002
  2004 2006 2007 2008

Strong growth in demand, based
on Increasing population - Rapid economic
growth - Rising per capita meat consumption
Slowing growth in ag production
Declining stocks of food commodities
Escalating crude oil price
Rapid expansion biofuels production
Dollar devaluation
Large foreign exchange reserves
Rising costs of ag production
Adverse weather
Demand factors in brown
Aggressive purchases by importers
Supply factors in green
Exporter policies
Importer policies
11
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Index 2005/06 100
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Index 2004/05 100
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. 1975-1990 0.15 1990-2005 0.14
20087-2017 0.39
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14
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??????? ?????? ? ?????? 2007 ????? ????????? ??
??????? ?????? ?? 2008/09
?????? ????
???????
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???????? USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections
to 2017, February 2008.
15
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16
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17
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??????. ???????????? ??????????? ??? (USDA-ERS
baseline briefing room) ?? ?????
http//www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/baseline ?????
????????? ?????????? ?? ?????????? ?????
????? http//www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/bioenergy
??? ?????? (Ron Trostle) ?????? ?????????????
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??? rtrostle_at_ers.usda.gov 202-694-5280