Peak Oil MYTH OR REALITY

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Peak OilMYTH OR REALITY

• And what it means to you

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History of Oil

• PRE 1900s
• Used since ancient times as a weapon
• Flaming Arrows, greek fire, etc
• Used for Medicinal purposes by Indians
• Used for lighting
• After Whale oil became scare
• Remainder of oil was thrown out, not useful
• POST 1900s
• Gasoline for Horseless Carriages
• Plastics
• And the list goes on and on

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The 7 Sisters of Long Ago

• Standard Oil of New Jersey (Esso), which merged
  with Mobil to form ExxonMobil.
• Royal Dutch Shell (Anglo-Dutch)
• Anglo-Persian Oil Company (APOC) (British). This
  later became Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC),
  then British Petroleum, and then BP Amoco
  following a merger with Amoco (which in turn was
  formerly Standard Oil of Indiana). It is now
  known solely by the initials BP.
• Standard Oil Co. of New York ("Socony"). This
  later became Mobil, which merged with Exxon to
  form ExxonMobil.
• Standard Oil of California ("Socal"). This became
  Chevron, then, upon merging with Texaco,
  ChevronTexaco. It has since dropped the 'Texaco'
  suffix, returning to Chevron.
• Gulf Oil. In 1985 most of Gulf became part of
  Chevron, with smaller parts becoming part of BP,
  and Cumberland Farms, in what was at that time
  the largest merger in world history. A network of
  stations in the northeastern United States still
  bears this name.
• Texaco. Merged with Chevron in 2001. The merged
  company was known for a time as ChevronTexaco,
  but in 2005 it changed its name back to Chevron.
  Texaco remains as a Chevron brand name.

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Oil Production and Reserves
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Reserves as of 1926
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Current Reserves
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Oil Use Per Person
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Effects on the Petroleum Products

• What are they

As a fuel, oil was originally used as kerosene
for lighting, replacing animal, vegetable and
coal oils. It also came to be used in furnaces.
Its biggest use, however, came with the
development of the automobile. Today almost all
forms of locomotion -- cars, trucks, buses,
trains, ships and airplanes -- are fueled by oil,
diesel or gasoline. Fuel oil has also been burned
to produce electricity, although that has always
been mostly coal's job until more recently.
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Petroleum Products

• Transport
• Electricity Generation
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• Farming
• Fertilizers, Pesticides
• Plastics
• AND A WHOLE LOT MORE!!!!

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Air conditioners, ammonia, anti-histamines,
antiseptics, artificial turf, asphalt, aspirin,
balloons, bandages, boats, bottles, bras, bubble
gum, butane, cameras, candles, car batteries, car
bodies, carpet, cassette tapes, caulking, CDs,
chewing gum, cold, combs/brushes, computers,
contacts, cortisone, crayons, cream, denture
adhesives, deodorant, detergents, dice,
dishwashing liquid, dresses, dryers, electric
blankets, electricians tape, fertilizers,
fishing lures, fishing rods, floor wax,
footballs, glues, glycerin, golf balls, guitar
strings, hair, hair coloring, hair curlers,
hearing aids, heart valves, heating oil, house
paint, ice chests, ink, insect repellent,
insulation, jet fuel, life jackets, linoleum, lip
balm, lipstick, loudspeakers, medicines, mops,
motor oil, motorcycle helmets, movie film, nail
polish, oil filters, paddles, paint brushes,
paints, parachutes, paraffin, pens, perfumes,
petroleum jelly, plastic chairs, plastic cups,
plastic forks, plastic wrap, plastics, plywood
adhesives, refrigerators, roller-skate wheels,
roofing paper, rubber bands, rubber boots, rubber
cement, rubbish bags, running shoes, saccharine,
seals, shirts (non-cotton), shoe polish, shoes,
shower curtains, solvents, solvents, spectacles,
stereos, sweaters, table tennis balls, tape
recorders, telephones, tennis rackets, thermos,
tights, toilet seats, toners, toothpaste,
transparencies, transparent tape, TV cabinets,
typewriter/computer ribbons, tyres, umbrellas,
upholstery, vaporisers, vitamin capsules,
volleyballs, water pipes, water skis, wax, wax
paper
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Modern Day 7 Sisters

• Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia), formerly Aramco
• JSC Gazprom (Russia)
• CNPC (China)
• NIOC (Iran)
• PDVSA (Venezuela)
• Petrobras (Brazil)
• Petronas (Malaysia)

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Production Costs

• Energy Returned on Energy Invested
• In Saudi Arabia (say before WWII) it had an EROEI
  of about 1001 - they invested the equivalent of
  one barrel to get 100 out.
• Crude oil from the same region today is down
  around 101 since it has become more difficult to
  extract.
• Offshore oil is in the range of 51 or less.
• Canadian Tar Sands are around 21 because the tar
  needs so much processing before it becomes usable
  oil.
• In comparison ethanol is at most 1.31, although
  most estimates put it at 11 if you ignore the
  non-energy value of its byproducts.
• Any energy carrier with an EROEI less than 1 is
  essentially useless because you might as well
  directly use the energy it took to make it.

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Control of Oil and the Imbalance of Trade

• Windfall Profits
• Who are the big winners

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What is Peak Oil
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Peak Oil Definition

• the point in history when global petroleum
  production will peakforever. Once oil supply can
  no longer keep up with oil demand, an economic
  shockwave will hit us and wreak havoc with our
  economies, all of which are dependent on
  (relatively) cheap oil
• Peak oil is the point in time at which the
  maximum global petroleum production rate is
  reached, after which the rate of production
  enters its terminal decline.

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Symptoms of the Problem
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Symptoms
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Symptoms
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Symptoms Saudi Arabia
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Symptoms, UKs Oil Production
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Demand By Sector
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Projected Demand
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Effects of the Problem
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Effects of the Problem
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Effects of the Problem
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Increase Costs of Food and Energy
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Power Generation Problems
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Obstacles in the Way
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Gas Companys

• Companys posting record profits
• What is their incentive?

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Auto Companys
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Cherishing our Personal Freedom
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What can we do to Solve it?
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Public Transportation
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Where will the Money Come From
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What Model of Public Transportation should the US
Adopt
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Can we as a people make a change
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Alternatives
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Hybrids

• Do they do enough to justify their costs
• 22.6K 21.1K 25 K
  25 K

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Current Off the Shelf Technologies

• 12 K 12
  K 14 K
  19 K

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Foreign Cars

• 6500 Chinas Gale Wind made by Geely

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Foreign Cars

• Indias Tata at 2500
• Gets about 50 MPG

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Bio Fuels

• Biofuel (also called agrofuel) can be broadly
  defined as solid, liquid, or gas fuel consisting
  of, or derived from biomass.

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Biofuel Production

• Fuels can be offset by growing crops
• US Corn Production of corn dedicated to fuel is
  90.5 million acres of corn this year 12.46
  billion-bushel 37.38 billion gallons of Biofuel
  projected

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Biofuel Comparison
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Future technologies
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Directing Population Growth
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Power Generation
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Future of Energy Resources
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Who Controls what and what that means to us
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Other Models Brazil

• First, being the richest country in the world,
  the USA has a number of cars that far exceeds the
  total number of licensed drivers, with almost 0.8
  vehicles per person. Brazil, a much more modest
  country, has only 20 of that impressive rate.
  Reduce number of cars on the road
• Second, the average American vehicle is larger,
  heavier and less efficient (21 miles/gallon),
  with a large number of SUVs and light trucks
  being preferred by families. The average car
  produced in Brazil (at 17 factories) is smaller,
  with predominant European and Asian influence in
  car design, a large number of cars being compact
  and obtaining 40 miles/gallon (gasoline). See
  above
• Third, by the end of 2006 ethanol will supply 50
  of all otherwise needed gasoline. Without fuel
  ethanol, Brazil would need now 8 billion
  gallons/year of gasoline, still a bargain when
  compared to the USAs 140 billion gallons/year.
  This one is a problem
• Four theres no suburban commuting in Brazil.
  Urban development did not give rise to an
  affluent class living in distant suburbia and
  commuting, for working and shopping, tens of
  miles a day. In Brazil, suburbia is synonymous to
  poverty people commute by train, bus and subway
  to their working places. Thats a problem
• Five 80 of all new cars are now flex-fuel,
  running on pure gasoline, pure ethanol or any mix
  of them. Thats a problem
• Six Brazil started to produce and distribute
  fuel ethanol, for replacing gasoline, in 1975.
  Thats more than 30 years experience, so 100 of
  all gas stations, in cities or roads, have
  ethanol pumps and tanks. Thats a problem
• Seven Brazilian ethanol, produced from sugar
  cane, is much cheaper that Brazilian gasoline
  distillated from locally extracted oil. Most of
  the year, its price is around 55 of gasoline
  price. In order to be economic, the ethanol price
  must be at least 70 lower than the price for
  gasoline. Thats a problem