Introduction to Toward constructing earthquake forecast systems for Japan

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Introduction to Toward constructing earthquake
forecast systems for Japan
International symposium Toward constructing
earthquake forecast systems for Japan 27 May
2009 at ERI, Univ. Tokyo

• Haoshi Hirata (ERI, Univ. of Tokyo)

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National earthquake prediction research programs
in Japan

• Selected focuses of the previous programs
  (1999-2008) new national resaearch programs
• Understanding of physical and chemical processes
  leading to an earthquake
• Observation for real time monitoring of crust and
  mantle activities
• Forecast simulation technology
• Developing new technologies such as an ocean
  bottom observations
• Based on these activities, a new focus of the
  current program (2009-2013)
• Create earthquake forecast systems for Japan
• Quantitatively forecast time, place, and
  magnitude for forthcoming earthquakes

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Earthquake forecast system

• Framework to test forecast accuracy
• Project Earthquake Forecast System based on
  Seismicity of Japan
• Buildup existing testable forecast models
• Create the framework that can rigorously test
  such models
• Explore the possibility of next-generation
  testable models
• Others
• http//wwweic.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ZISINyosoku

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Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake
Predictability (CSEP)

• Next talk by D. Schorlemmer
• http//www.cseptesting.org/
• ERI joined the CSEP project

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CSEP Testing Center at ERI

• Installed last summer by D. Schorlemmer F.
  Euchner
• Quantitative testing of earthquake forecast
  models
• The earthquake forecast testing experiment is
  carried out this year
• Use the existing Testing Center
• Call for
• Testable models
• Testing regions
• Evaluation methods
• TODAY Mutual understanding among the experiment
  participants

Tripple-S
RI
ALM
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Program

• Existing Testing Center for Japan
• Proposed testable models evaluation methods
• Exploring the possibility of next-generation
  testable models
• GPS, seismo-electromagnetism, data assimilation,
  and seismicity
• Panel discussion on the testing experiment