Virginia Foran-Cain

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U.S. Maritime Strategy and Failed States

• Virginia Foran-Cain
• Center for Strategic Studies
• April 21, 2009

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Roadmap

• Focus on the Indian Ocean Region (IOR)
• Maritime consequences of failed and failing
  states
• U.S. strategy towards failed states
• Towards a maritime strategy for failed states
• Implementation and coordination
• Next Steps

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Bottom Line

• No specific document A U.S. Maritime Strategy
  Toward Failed and Failing States
• But a reasonably comprehensive, de-facto strategy
  nonetheless.
• Initiatives are nicely layered, but coordination
  a huge problem
• Could serve to improve MDA technically and
  politically
• Sea Services approach compatible with
  multilateral diplomacy
• Conceptualizing Maritime Strategy for this
  problem could serve to focus efforts currently
  de-centralized
• Application to IOR useful as there is a lot at
  stake there and would push strategy in practical,
  applied direction.

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The Indian Ocean Region A Maritime Domain
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Increasing Geostrategic Importance

• Value of a free waterway for commerce and
  maritime projection of power long recognized
• IOR now a global economic lifeline for energy and
  trade
• IOR key area of interest for the worlds two
  fastest growing economies China and India
• Potential for U.S., China, India strategic
  triangle if not managed carefully

Vasco de Gama
Jamnagar oil refinery in Gujarat, India is
expanding to become the largest in the world
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IOR Energy and Trade

• Principal trade route between east and west
• Over half the worlds merchant fleets pass
  through the IO to and from South and East Asia
• 80 of oil destined for Asia transits the IO,
  most of it through the Malacca Strait
• 17-18 of U.S. net oil imports come from the
  Persian Gulf
• Nearly all goes south or west out of Gulf by sea

U.S. has less at stake with regard to energy and
trade in the IOR than any other major power, but
providing security contributes to national
security objectives.
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Increasing Threats

• IOR and littoral states are home to several
  significant threats to international security
• Maritime terrorism and piracy
• Arms trafficking and WMD proliferation
• Natural disasters
• Failing states

Dec. 10 2002, Spanish navy intercept boards North
Korean ship So San en route to Yemen carrying
Scud missile parts hidden under bags of cement
US flagged Maersk Alabama hijacked off coast of
Somalia
ALL HAVE MARITIME CONSEQUENCES
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Incidents of piracy have declined in Southeast
Asia since 2003, and have risen off coast of
Africa.
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Consequences of Failed and Failing States

• Loss of control over territory
• Piracy
• Trafficking (weapons, drugs, human)
• Civil war
• Potential to create instability in adjacent
  states
• Migration of refugees
• Difficult to manage and provide assistance
• Terrorist safe havens
• Recruiting and training extremists

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Failed and Failing States in the IOR

• According to Foreign Policy ranking, 8 of top 20
  states judged most at risk are in IOR
• Somalia (1)
• Iraq (5)
• Afghanistan (7)
• Pakistan (9)
• Bangladesh (12)
• Burma/Myanmar (13)
• Ethiopia (16)
• Sri Lanka (20)
• Regions with numerous failed/failing states at
  risk to become failed regions

Insecurity in the 21st century appears to come
less from the collisions of powerful states than
from the debris of imploding ones. (Breaking the
Failed-State Cycle, RAND 2008)
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Gaps and Criticism of Current Initiatives
Existing institutions not capable of integration
needed
Mitigating the Consequences
Strengthening and Prevention
Insufficient resources Fragmented efforts No
durable recovery resulting in a cycle of failure
Food aid Education programs FDI Peacekeeping Devel
opment assistance Governance
Counter narcotics/arms trafficking Anti-piracy
efforts Humanitarian relief Security assistance
The military dominates the decision-making and
resources
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Strategic Guidance for Weak and Failed States
2005 National Security Presidential Directive 44
Support Transformational Diplomacy Civilian-Milita
ry Coordination Harness Skills and Expertise
throughout USG Build Global Capacity Make
Progress towards Presidential Goals
incidents of maritime crime tend to be
concentrated in areas of heavy commercial
maritime activity especially where there is
significant political and economic instability,
or in regions with little or no maritime law
enforcement capacity.
1998, 2002, and 2006 NSS recognized severe
threats emanating from states described as weak,
fragile, vulnerable, failing, precarious, in
crisis, or collapsed
the U.S. should workto anticipate state
failure, avoid it wherever possible, and respond
quickly and effectively when necessary and
appropriate.
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Current Guidance for U.S. Maritime Strategy

• Limit regional conflict with forward deployed,
  decisive maritime power.
• Deter major power war.
• Win our nations wars.
• Contribute to homeland defense in depth.
• Foster and sustain cooperative relationships with
  more international partners.
• Prevent or contain local disruptions before they
  impact the global system

Trust and cooperation cannot be surged
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Current U.S. Maritime Initiatives

• The Global Maritime Partnership
• CTF-150 (CENTCOM)
• Maritime Security Operations
• Assured security through Strait of Hormuz and
  others as needed
• Theater Security Cooperation with regional Navies
• Maritime Domain Awareness
• Enhancing communication technology
• MDA akin to International Civil Aviation
  Organization or US NOAA
• Anti Piracy Efforts
• CTF-151
• Sea Marshalls
• Training of merchant mariners
• Container Security Initiative
• Proliferation Security Initiative

GLOBAL MARITIME PARTNERSHIPS
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(No Transcript)
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Implementation Issues

• Forward Presence
• Dependent on relationship with host government
• Empower existing maritime partnerships
• Evaluate where additional partnerships are needed
• Maritime Operations
• Gaps in SLOC security
• Coordination with regional maritime security
  initiatives
• MDA technology still evolving
• Anticipating Piracy and Trafficking
  countermeasures
• Littoral platforms
• Coordination within USG
• Possible rush to hand off to DOS
• Trans regional Influence Plan (TRIP)

MARITIME SECURITY Cheaper than boots on the
ground
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Next Steps Strengthening U.S. Maritime Strategy
Base Next Steps on the Hard Cases in IOR

• Piracy/Trafficking
• Somalia
• Civil war/Insurgencies
• Somalia, Burma, Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan, Sri
  Lanka
• Haven for terrorists
• Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq
• Migration of refugees
• Burma, Somalia

Prosecute the bloody pirates!
SLOC CONVOYS!
Homeland Security and MDA
Dont shortchange HA/DR