The Communities in Which We Live: Demographic Trends on People, Property

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The Communities in Which We LiveDemographic
Trends on People, Property Communities
Annual Meeting of the North Dakota Association
of Counties Bismarck, ND October 10, 2005

• Dr. Richard Rathge
• Professor and Director
• North Dakota State Data Center

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Presentation Objectives
1. To highlight key demographic challenges to
North Dakotas communities
2. To review key findings from the statewide
Housing Needs Assessment
3. To initiate a dialogue via panel members
regarding strategies for the future
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Key Demographic Challenges
1. Population consolidation-urban vs. rural
2. Age shifts -- graying of the state
3. Shifting household composition
4. Changes in employment
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Demographic Themes
1. Population consolidation
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N.D. Rural-Urban Population Distribution,
1900-2020
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial
Censuses.
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North Dakota
Cass County
McIntosh County
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Population Density
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North Dakota Cities by Size, 1960 and 2000
urban
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15
rural
2000 data include 10 Census Designated Places
(CDPs).
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census
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Consolidation issues

• Larger communities growth is masking
  smaller communities decline

- Political debates are dominated by large
communities
- Sparse population bases and vast distances
hide rural residents and make them harder to
serve
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Demographic Themes
2. Shifting age distribution
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2000 Census Rural and Urban Population
Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
Traditional
Babyboom
X Generation
Y Generation
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2020 Projections Rural and Urban Population
Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
Babyboom
X Generation
Y Generation
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Total Population Projected Percent Change in
Population in North Dakota by County, 2000 to 2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 North
Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND Individual
state agencies providing population projections.
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Persons Ages 0 to 4 Projected Percent Change in
Population in North Dakota by County, 2000 to 2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 North
Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND Individual
state agencies providing population projections.
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Persons Ages 5 to 19 Projected Percent Change in
Population in North Dakota by County, 2000 to 2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 North
Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND Individual
state agencies providing population projections.
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Persons Ages 20 to 34 Projected Percent Change
in Population in North Dakota by County, 2000 to
2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 North
Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND Individual
state agencies providing population projections.
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Persons Ages 35 to 54 Projected Percent Change
in Population in North Dakota by County, 2000 to
2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 North
Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND Individual
state agencies providing population projections.
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Persons Ages 55 to 64 Projected Percent Change
in Population in North Dakota by County, 2000 to
2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 North
Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND Individual
state agencies providing population projections.
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Persons Ages 65 and Older Projected Percent
Change in Population in North Dakota by County,
2000 to 2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 North
Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND Individual
state agencies providing population projections.
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Life Expectancy at Age 65
Females
Males
Source Joseph Applebaum U.S. General Accounting
Office
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Population of Persons Ages 0 to 9 and Ages 65 and
OlderNorth Dakota 1890 to 2020
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PERCENT CHANGE IN PERSONS2000 to 2010 2000 to
2020(Source U.S. Census Bureau)
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Age distribution issues
- Shrinking entry labor pool and expanding
pre-retirement/retirement sector
- Growing proportion of older rural seniors

• Shifting generations with different voting
  patterns and concerns

• Loss of young adults in rural areas

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Demographic Themes
3. Household Composition
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Households by Type
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Household Types
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PERSONS LIVING ALONE1-Person Households 1940
to 2000(Source U.S. Census Bureau)
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Householders Ages 65 and Older Living Alone as a
Percent All Householders Ages 65 and Older in
North Dakota by County 2000Source U.S. Census
Bureau, Census 2000
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Household composition issues
- Rethink traditional household concept as
distribution shift away from two parents with
children

• Consider growing needs for persons living alone
  especially elderly

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Demographic Themes
4. Employment changes
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Workforce in United States,1800-2000
Percent of Work-force
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Source ERS, USDA
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N.D. Gross State Product by Industry, 1979 and
1999
Source U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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The New Economy Paradigm
(C.K. Wong, Chinese General Chamber of Commerce)

• Industrial Age
• Old Paradigm
• Mass Production
• Mass Media
• Mass Marketing
• Economy of Scale

• Information Age
• New Paradigm
• Customized Production
• Individualize Presentation
• One-to-One Marketing
• Economy of Scope

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Service-producing industries continue to lead
employment growth
Millions of nonfarm wage and salary jobs
Goods-producing
Service-producing
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Projected 2000-2010 employment growth in services
Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Consequences for Housing based on Statewide Needs
Assessment

• Shifts in housing stock

• Growing need for affordable housing

• Growing demand for special population

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NORTH DAKOTA HOME OWNERSHIP RATESAnnual
Homeownership Rates 1984 to 2003(Source U.S.
Census Bureau)
7 increase in housing units 1990-2000
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Age of Housing
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Projected Housing Demand
Findings Between 2000-2015

• Age of householder
• 15-34 will decline 8 (nearly 5,000)
• 35-54 decline 15 (over 15,000)
• 55-74 will increase 50 (over 29,800)
• 75 and over will increase 38 (over 12,500)

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Projected Housing Demand
Findings Between 2000-2015

• Income of householder
• Below 30 MFI will increase 15 (7,426)
• 31-50 MFI will increase 12 (4,789)
• 51-60 MFI will increase 9 (3,490)
• Above 115 will increase 8 (2,555)

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Projected Housing Demand
Findings Between 2000-2015

• Type of householder
• First-time homebuyer will decline 9
• Upscale homebuyer will increase 8
• Low-income homebuyer will increase 6
• Moderate homebuyer will increase 8
• Elderly homebuyer will increase 42

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Affordable Housing
Benchmark housing should be within 30 of
household income (statewide MFI52,500)
- 57 of current owner- or renter-occupied homes
are not affordable to those below 30 MFI
- 21 of current owner-occupied and 17 of
renter-occupied homes are not affordable to those
between 31-50 MFI
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LOCAL EFFECTS OF PROPOSED CUTS IN FEDERAL HOUSING
ASSISTANCE, BY STATE IN 2009(SOURCE CENTER ON
BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES MARCH 17, 2004)
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Special Populations
Survey of homeless indicate unmet need for 2,136
persons --- 40 are families with children

• Need for low and moderate-income elderly
• - cost burden exceed 30 of household income for
  15 of elderly (55 years and over) owner-occupied
  units and 35 in renter-occupied units

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Recommendations

• Top priority--- elderly housing issues
• Older homes and need for rehabilitation
• Increase demand for extremely low-, low-,
  moderate-income homes
• Special population needs
• Homeless
• Low-income elderly
• Task force to explore innovative programs
• Cuts in Federal Programs

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Demographic Presentation 2005

• Dr. Richard Rathge, Director
• North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU,
  IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58105
• Richard.Rathge_at_ndsu.edu
• Phone [phone] Fax [phone]
• URL www.ndsu.edu/sdc