The Fading Promise of Welfare Reform to End Child Poverty

1
The Fading Promise of Welfare Reform to End Child
Poverty
Duncan Lindsey
2
The Overlap of Welfare, CPS and Foster Care
Welfare Families
Families served by CPS
Foster Care
3
Child welfare and welfare
Frame (1998) 25 of children in new welfare
cases in California had history of involvement
with child welfare system. Shook (1999) 40 of
children in foster care were on welfare the month
before placement. Another 20 on welfare in
previous months. Palmer, Rogers, Digre,
Williams (1997) 70 of child welfare families
receiving welfare.

4
Children new to foster care from welfare
families

• California 90
• Illinois 85
• North Carolina 90

Source Needell, Cucaro-Alamin, Brookhard, and
Lee (1999)
5
Foster Care in Los Angeles

• 97 of foster care children in Los Angeles come
  from homes below the poverty line

Source Los Angeles Times (1999)
6
Welfare provides income support for low income
mothers.Historic concern that providing welfare
made women dependent on it.Welfare reform was
meant to encourage single mothers to work so that
they wouldnt need welfare. It was believed
that welfare reform would improve the situation
of poor children.

7
Welfare Reform Debate
The Washington Post (1995) wrote Now here is
the part you need to know Mr. Clintons own
advisors have told him that it would likely
consign as many as a million more children to
poverty. ---------------------------------------
--- Marian Wright Edelman (1995) An open letter
to President Clinton It would be a great moral
and practical wrong for you to sign any welfare
reform bill that will push millions of already
poor children and families deeper into poverty.
.. But longer-term and perhaps irreparable damage
will be inflicted on children if you permit to be
destroyed the fundamental moral principle that an
American child, regardless of the state or
parents the child chanced to draw, is entitled to
protection of last resort by his or her national
government.

Entitlement
8
Marian Wright Edelman (1995)

• The proposed welfare reform .. is the domestic
  equivalent of bombing Vietnamese villages in
  order to save them. It is moral hypocrisy for our
  nation to slash income, health and nutrition
  assistance for poor children while leaving
  untouched hundreds of billions in corporate
  welfare, giving new tax breaks of over 200
  billion for non-needy citizens

9
Daniel Patrick Moynihan (1995)

• If in 10 years time we find children sleeping on
  grates, picked up in the morning frozen, and ask,
  Why are they here scavenging, awful to
  themselves, awful to one another it will have
  begun on the House floor this spring and the
  Senate chamber this autumn.

10
Daniel Patrick Moynihan (1995)

• described the welfare reform bill as the most
  brutal act of social policy since reconstruction
  and predicted those involved will take this
  disgrace to their graves.

11
President Clinton campaigned on a promise
toChange welfare as we know it.

• The welfare system was widely viewed as a failed
  system, the time for reform was ripe
• On August 18, 1996 President Clinton signed the
  welfare reform bill into law.

12
Welfare ReformPersonal Responsibility and Work
Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA)

• No longer an entitlement.
• States provided block grants and greater
  flexibility.
• Time limits.
• Work requirements.

13
Results What happened?

• You are working with many of these families. What
  have you seen?
• Has there been an improvement in the lives of
  families that used to be on welfare?
• Did welfare reform strengthen these families?

14
What has been the impact of welfare reform on
children?

• Are there fewer poor children?
• Is the situation for poor children improving?
• How can we answer these questions?

15
Welfare Recipients
Source http//www.acf.dhhs.gov/news/stats/recipie
nts.htm
16
Greatest declines

• 1993 2002
• Wisconsin 241,000 44,000
• Florida 702,000 129,000
• Illinois 686,000 154,000
• Louisiana 263,000 65,000
• Mississippi 121,000 23,000

Source http//www.acf.dhhs.gov/news/stats/caseloa
d.htm
17
Robert Rector and Patrick Fagan (2001)

• Overall poverty, child poverty and black child
  poverty have all dropped substantially. .. there
  are 4.2 million fewer people living in poverty
  today than there were in 1996, according to
  Census Bureau figures. Some 2.3 million fewer
  children live in poverty today than in 1996.
• Welfare caseloads have been cut nearly in half
  and employment of the most disadvantaged single
  mothers has increased from 50 to 100 percent.

18
Jay Hein (2001) of the Hudson Institute

• Indeed, the success of TANF has exceeded even the
  brightest of reforms optimists. All the
  important social indicators are pointing in the
  right direction
• welfare rolls are down
• employment is up
• teen pregnancy is down and
• wages are up.

19
Children receiving welfare 1993 9,382,000
1996 8,671,000 2001 4,055,000

Source http//www.acf.dhhs.gov/programs/opre/ar20
01/0203c.htm
20
Child poverty in the US
Child Poverty Rates in the United States, 1990 to
2000
21
Child poverty in states with welfare declines
Child Poverty in States with the Greatest
Decreases in Welfare Recipients
22
Did child poverty decline?
Imprecision of CPS estimates? Did declines in
welfare caseloads match declines in child poverty
rates?
23
Precision of Estimates
24
Children removed from poverty
The Number of Children Removed from Welfare
Compared to the Number of Children Removed from
Poverty
25
Idaho and Wyoming
26
Idaho and Wyoming 2
Children Leaving Welfare and Poverty
27
What about other child welfare indicators?

• Did out-of-wedlock births decline?
• Have foster care caseloads declined?

28
Changes in the Percentage of Births to Unmarried
Women

29
Foster Care in the United States
Source http//www.acf.dhhs.gov/programs/cb/dis/ta
bles/sec11gb/national.htmnational
30
Children in Foster Care in Wisconsin
Source ACF and CWLA
31
Children in Foster Care in Florida
Source ACF and CWLA
32
Did single mothers work more?

33
Employment Status of Single and Married Mothers,
1990 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau
34
How can we assess the economic impact of welfare
reform?

• Once a family leaves welfare, then systematic
  data is no longer collected by the agency.
• Census data on poverty are limited.
• Based on samples that have small sub samples
  of welfare families.
• These sub samples have levels of confidence
  that restrict the precision of measurement.

35
Where might we find more reliable data?

• Who might have data on these families?
• Child welfare agencies?
• Child support enforcement agencies?
• Schools? Police? Hospitals?

36
Food Stamps and Welfare

• Most people receiving welfare, also receive food
  stamps.
• Food stamp offices collect extensive income data
  on clients to determine eligibility.
• Independent of welfare eligibility.
• Children are the largest recipient group.

37
Welfare and Food Stamps

• What happens with food stamp caseload should
  mirror what happens with welfare. That is, as
  welfare caseloads decline, food stamp caseloads
  should also decline.
• What happens with children receiving welfare,
  should be mirrored by children receiving food
  stamps.

38
Food stamps and welfare parallel each other
39
Income of the Average Food Stamp family.
Source USDA (2002). See httpwww.fns.usda.gov
40
Comparison of Food Stamp and Welfare Recipient
Declines in Wisconsin
Change from 96 -02

• Welfare / Food Stamps 1993 71 2002
  17

41
Comparison of Food Stamp and Welfare Recipient
Declines in Florida

• Welfare / Food Stamps 1993 47 2002
  13

42
Comparison of Food Stamp and Welfare Recipient
Declines in Mississippi

• Welfare / Food Stamps 1993 32 2002
  13

43
Comparison of Food Stamp and Welfare Recipient
Declines in Louisiana

• Welfare / Food Stamps 1993 34 2002
  11

44
Comparison of Food Stamp and Welfare Recipient
Declines in Illinois

• Welfare / Food Stamps 1993 58 2002
  18

45
Why the divergence?

• Why did the decline in the welfare caseload so
  exceed the decline in Food Stamp recipients?
• Both programs address the same problem.

46
Child Recipients of Welfare and Food Stamps
47
Average Monthly Benefit per Person for the Food
Stamp Program

48
Parents provided welfare (2001)

• No parent 1 parent 2 parents
• Florida 52.8 47.2 0
• Illinois 30.1 69.3 .6
• California 38.3 61.7 0

See L.A. Times (August 24, 2002)
49
What does the Food Stamp data indicate?The
economic situation of most poor children has not
improved.This contradicts welfare caseload
declines that suggests substantial improvement.
Is there other data that would allow for
further examination this question?

Triangulate
50
The program specifically targeted to poor
children that could help is the Federally
Subsidized Free Lunch program.
The modern day soup line for kids.
51
The Federal Free Lunch Program

• Family income less than 130 of poverty line.
• Requires parent complete application and supply
  income information.
• Applications are checked and audited for
  eligibility.

52
Children Receiving Welfare and Federally
Subsidized Lunch in Florida
Why the divergence?
53
Children Receiving Welfare and Federally
Subsidized Lunch in Wisconsin
Why the divergence?
54
Children Receiving Welfare and Federally
Subsidized Lunch in Mississippi
Why the divergence?
55
Children Receiving Welfare and Federally
Subsidized Lunch in Louisiana
Why the divergence?
56
Children Receiving Welfare and Federally
Subsidized Lunch in Illinois
Why the divergence?
57
Children Receiving Welfare and Federally
Subsidized Lunch in California
Why the divergence?
58
Child Recipients of Welfare and Free Lunch
59
Critics of welfare reform have expressed concern
that removing the entitlement status would give
states carte blanche to reduce their welfare
caseload.The data examined here suggest that
many states may, in fact, have sharply reduced
their caseload by simply no longer providing many
poor children with welfare regardless of their
economic circumstance.
60

• It appears that millions of poor children that
  in the past would have received welfare no longer
  receive it.
• Data from the Food Stamp program indicates the
  number of poor children who have lost welfare
  benefits even though their economic situation has
  not improved is about 2 million.
• Data from the Free Lunch program indicates the
  number of poor children who have lost their
  welfare benefits even though their economic
  situation has not improved may be as high as 5
  million.

61
What has happened to the children who no longer
receive welfare but who apparently are still very
poor? The data examined here suggest they
remain poor.Who are these children?
62
Over representation of Black children
The disproportionate number of Black children in
Americas welfare system is staggering. Black
families are overrepresented. Spend a day at the
welfare office and you will see the unmistakable
color of the welfare system. Dorothy Roberts,
Shattered Bonds
63
Composition of the welfare caseload in Wisconsin
Why the discrepancy?
64
Composition of the welfare caseload in Mississippi
Why the discrepancy?
65
Composition of the welfare caseload in Louisiana
Why the discrepancy?
66
Composition of the welfare caseload in Florida
Why the discrepancy?
67
Composition of the welfare caseload in Illinois
Why the discrepancy?
68
Color of Children on Welfare
69
The data examined here suggest that the
consequence of welfare reform is not the great
achievement some have heralded. The story of
that achievement, at least for poor children, is
a myth.
70
For children in poor families where mom has left
welfare and gone to work, the promise of welfare
reform may have been realized. But these children
are the minority.

71
Millions of poor children who used to receive
income protection (welfare) now find themselves
without it. Millions of poor children have
kept their food stamps and free lunch while
losing their welfare benefit.From the
perspective of poor children, welfare reform
appears to be a substantial net financial loss.
72
childwelfare.com

73
California
74
CalWORKs Caseload
75
AFDC/TANF Foster Care in California
76
Californias Child Population (2000)
California's Child Population (2000)

77
Foster care in LA
Foster Care Placement Rates in California and LA
(2000)

78
Roberts
the child welfare system . . . is a state-run
program that disrupts, restructures, and polices
Black families. I hope to capture the injustice
of a system that separates thousands of Black
children from their parents every year and
relegates them to damaging state institutions.
There is little evidence that the foster care
system has improved the well-being of Black
children. Dorothy Roberts, Shattered Bonds
79
FC by Race
80
Access to UCLA
Access to UCLA

81
UCLA and Foster Care
Looking at L.A. County Percent of Population in
Foster Care and at UCLA (2000)