CCSP SAP 3'3

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CCSP SAP 3.3
http//www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg./ccsp/33
.jsp
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Author team (/- a few)
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Schedule - 2006
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Schedule - 2007
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Schedule - 2008
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CCSP SAP3.3 Chapter 1
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CCSP SAP3.3 Chapter 2
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CCSP SAP3.3 Chapter 3
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CCSP SAP3.3 Chapter 4
Length of report 195 pages, double spaced, 12pt
font
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Chapter 3. Do we understand the causes of
observed changes in extremes and what are the
projected future changes?
Convening Lead Author (CLA) William
Gutowski Lead Authors (LA) Linda Mearns, Greg
Holland, Gabriele Hegerl, Francis Zwiers, Ronald
Stouffer, Peter Webster, Thomas Knutson (also ES)
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Chapter 3 Three questions

• What are the physical mechanisms of observed
  changes in extremes?
• Synthesis of phenomena studies.
• What are the physical mechanisms of extremes?
• How are the physical mechanisms changing?
• This includes the environment in which the
  physical mechanisms operate.
• Two (or three?) special case studies
• 2005 Tropical Storm Season
• 1998 Ice storm in northeastern North America
• Chicago heat wave

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Chapter 3 Three questions

• Can we attributed observed changes to external
  forcing?
• Association between changes in physical
  mechanisms and simulations with/without various
  external forcings
• Diagnosis of how the physical mechanisms
  responded to the climate changes in the
  attribution simulations
• Link between the changes in extremes and how the
  physical environment has changed
• Temperature (hot, cold, freeze free season)
• Precipitation (short, monthly-seasonal, drought)
• Storm Extreme (tropical cyclones, strong
  extratropical, coastal waves, winter storms,
  convective storms)

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Chapter 3 Three questions

• How are extremes, their causes, and mechanisms
  projected to change?
• Association between changes in physical
  mechanisms and scenario simulations
• Diagnosis of how the physical mechanisms
  responded to the climate changes
• Link between the changes in extremes and how the
  physical environment has changed
• Temperature (hot, cold, freeze free season)
• Precipitation (short, monthly-seasonal, drought)
• Storm Extreme (tropical cyclones, strong
  extra-tropical, coastal waves, winter storms,
  convective storms)

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Chapter 3 outline

• Section 3.1
• Observed changes, Questions 1 and 2
• Coordination Hegerl/Zwiers
• Author Team Hegerl, Zwiers, Greg Holland, Peter
  Webster, Tom Knutson, Bill Gutowski, Harold
  Brooks?
• Temperature Extremes
• Hot extremes
• Cold extremes
• Freeze-free season
• Precipitation Extremes
• Short-duration heavy precipitation
• Monthly-to-seasonal heavy precipitation
• Drought
• Storm Extremes
• Tropical Cyclones
• Strong Extratropical Cyclones
• Convective Storms
• Special case study?
• 2005 Tropical Storm Season

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Chapter 3 outline

• Section 3.2
• Projected changes, Question 3
• Coordination Ron Stouffer
• Author team Linda Mearns, Bill Gutowski, Tom
  Knutson, Mike Wehner
• Temperature Extremes
• Hot extremes
• Cold extremes
• Freeze-free season
• Precipitation Extremes
• Short-duration heavy precipitation
• Monthly-to-seasonal heavy precipitation
• Drought
• Storm Extremes
• Tropical Cyclones
• Strong Extratropical Cyclones
• Convective Storms

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