Testimony of Wayne A' Cornelius Director, Center for Comparative Immigration Studies, UCSan Diego To

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Testimony ofWayne A. CorneliusDirector, Center
forComparative ImmigrationStudies, UC-San
DiegoTo the House JudiciaryCommittee, Field
Hearingon Immigration, San Diego, August 2, 2006
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U.S. border enforcement spending
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Southwest border apprehensions
Concentrated border enforcement strategy initiated
Projected, based on 2 decline during Oct. 1,
2005 July 15, 2006 period
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U.S Border Enforcement Expenditure and
Apprehensions
Apprehensions in 2006 projected, based on 2
decline during Oct. 1, 2005 July 15, 2006 period
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Stock of unauthorized immigrants living
in the United States (estimate by Pew
Hispanic Center, March 2006)
Net growth, 2000-2005500,000 per year
Year
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Migrants Take More Dangerous Routes Around
Border Patrol Operations
Major Border Patrol Operations
New Migration Routes
SOURCE Cornelius 2005
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(No Transcript)
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Source UCSD survey in Yucatan, 2006
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Actual border crossing experiences of
unauthorized migrants(among those apprehended
one or moretimes on most recent trip to the
border)

• 92 of Jalisco Zacatecas migrants were able to
  enter eventually, on same trip
• 97 of Yucatec migrants eventually succeeded
• Most entered successfully on 1st or 2nd try

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Knowledge of intensified border enforcement

• 75 of unauthorized migrants from Jalisco,
  Zacatecas, and Yucatan knew about enhanced border
  enforcement efforts

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Perceived difficulty of clandestine entry(among
those with U.S. migration experience)

• who believe it is much more difficult
  to evade the Border Patrol when crossing the
  border now
• Jalisco, Zacatecas 62
• Yucatan 68

Source UCSD surveys in Jalisco and Zacatecas
(Jan. 2005), and Yucatan (Jan.-Feb. 2006)
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Perceived danger of illegal entry

• 78 of recent migrants from Jalisco, Zacatecas
  believe it is very dangerous to cross the
  border without papers (81 of Yucatecan
  migrants)
• 64 of Jalisco, Zac.migrants knew someone who
  died trying to cross border (12 of Yucatecan
  migrants)

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Perceived danger of illegal entry(among
Yucatecan migrants)

• 69 had seen or listened to PSAs warning of
  dangers of clandestine crossings
• 9.6 said warnings had some effect on their plans
  to migrate

U.S. Border Patrol-sponsored TVspot broadcast in
Mexico, 2005
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Effects of border enforcement on migration
behavior

• Most would-be migrants are well-informed about
  the difficulty and hazards of clandestine entry.
• Such knowledge has no effect on the propensity to
  migrate.
• Unauthorized migrants are willing to take greater
  risks and pay much more to people-smugglers to
  reduce risk and gain entry.

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• Despite the border build-up, most
  unauthorized migrants still succeed in
  entering on the first or second try.
• Migration strategies have been affected by
  enhanced border enforcement (crossing points
  have changed use of smugglers has
  increased), but illegal entry attempts are
  not being deterred.

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We dont care if we have to walk eight days,
fifteen daysit doesnt matter the danger we put
ourselves in. If and when we cross alive, we
will have a job to give our families the best.
Miguel, 28 yr.-old migrant to the U.S.,
February 2006
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• Unintended consequences of border enforcement
  have been more important than the predicted
  outcome (deterrence of unwanted immigration)
• creating new opportunities for professional
  people-smugglers
• making borders more lethal (increasing
  migrant fatalities)
• higher rates of permanent settlement in
  the U.S.

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Use of people-smugglers by unauthorized
migrantsfrom Yucatan (on most recent trip to
U.S.)
Use of people-smugglers by unauthorized migrants
(on most recent trip to U.S.)
Yes 92.6
No 7.4

• Source UCSD survey in Yucatan,
  January-February 2006

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Source UCSD survey of returned migrants in
Yucatan, 2006

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Deaths due to unauthorized border
crossings,detected in U.S.-Mexico borderlands
Source Mexican Consulates/Mexican Ministry of
Foreign Relations. Includes unidentified bodies
and bodies found on both sides of border
through May 31, 2006
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Causes of death among unauthorized border
crossers
Environmental causes (hypothermia, dehydration,
sunstroke, asphyxia)
Drowning
Auto accident
Source Mexican Consulates/Mexican Ministry of
Foreign Relations
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Extending stays in the United States

• 37 of Jalisco Zacatecas migrants stayed longer
  than expected on most recent U.S. sojourn(51
  among Yucatecos)
• 79 know someone who remained in the U.S.
  because of stronger border enforcement

Source UCSD surveys in Jalisco, Zacatecas, and
Yucatan, 2005-2006.
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Sub-Saharan migration to Spain
900 miles
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500mi.
Mauritania
Migrant fatalities due to shipwreck, 1997-2001
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Policy recommendations

• Legalize most unauthorized immigrants already
  here, and encourage naturalization.
• Provide more legal entry opportunities for new
  immigrants, both high-skilled and low-skilled,
  temporary and permanent.
• Create alternatives to emigration in sending
  areas (targeted development programs that create
  higher-paying jobs)

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Employment-based immigrant visas
Current cap 140,000 per year (of which
5,000-10,000 are usually
allocated to low-skilled workers) 3,261
employment-based visas were issued to Mexican
immigrants in 2003 _______________________________
_________ manufactured
illegality?
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GDP per capita in Mexico and the United States
Ratio of U.S./ Mexico GDP
NAFTA
U.S.
Mexico
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Source UCSD survey of Yucatec migrants, 2006
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Questions and further informationWayne
CorneliusCenter for Comparative Immigration
Studies, UCSD Tel. [phone]
wcorneli_at_ucsd.eduhttp//www.ccis-ucsd.org