THREE AND TENYEAR ENROLLMENT REPORT

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THREE AND TEN-YEAR ENROLLMENT REPORT

• Presented to School Committee
• November 29, 2005

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TONIGHTS PRESENTATION

• Ten-year projections (K-5, 6-8, 9-12)
• Three-year projection (K-5)
• Policy Implications

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HISTORICAL BIRTH to K PROGRESSION RATES

• One year variations in Birth-to-K progression
  rates are common
• The average progression rate over the past four
  years is 1.34
• The report forecasts enrollments based on four
  separate Birth-to-K progression rates
• Low projection assumes 1.25
• Middle projection assumes 1.35 (declining and
  steady birth rates)
• High projection assumes 1.45

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LEXINGTON BIRTHS
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Based on 1.25 Birth-to-K Progression Rate
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Based on 1.35 Birth-to-K Progression Rate
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Based on 1.35 Birth-to-K Progression Rate
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Based on 1.45 Birth-to-K Progression Rate
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HISTORICAL GRADE 5 TO GRADE 6 PROGRESSION RATES

• One year variations in grade-to-grade progression
  rates are common.
• The average progression rate over the past five
  years is 1.01.

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Middle School
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HISTORICAL GRADE 8 TO GRADE 9 PROGRESSION RATES

• One year variations in grade-to-grade progression
  rates are common.
• The average progression rate over the past five
  years is 0.99.

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High School
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THREE-YEAR K-5 PROJECTIONS

• Based on
• Pre-K census
• Age 4-to-K progression rate per school

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School by School Enrollment Projections Actual FY
06 FY 07 through FY 09 Projections Kindergarten
Numbers Bases on Census Data
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Policy Implications

• In FY 08
• The Bowman School will be overcrowded (Based on
  the Avalon Bay housing project).
• The new Fiske School will open.
• K-5 and 6-8 Redistricting will be needed to
  balance enrollments.
• In order to prepare for these changes, we need to
  plan the next phase of K-5 school reconstruction
  in FY 07.