NTS Update

1
NTS Update

• Gas Customer Forum
• 25th September 2006

2
Area updates

• NTS Charging
• Winter 2006/7 Consultation Report
• GBA notification service
• 006 Implementation
• Introduction of new forecasting incentive
• NTS exit reform

3
NTS Charging Proposal for April 2007

• Pricing Consultation Document shortly
• Changes to NTS Capacity charge methodology
• Proposal key changes
• Replace Transcost with a Transportation Model
• Move from ten years of forward looking
  supply/demand projections to a single year model

4
NTS Capacity Charging Proposal Implementation

• Exit
• Implementation for 1st April 2007
• Entry
• Implementation for 1st April 2007 revised
  reserve prices would apply for all auctions held
  on or after 1st April 2007
• Charging Model
• The combined Transport and Tariff model would be
  made available to Users once SD data could be
  made available
• UNC modification may be necessary to address data
  confidentiality issues

Contact Paul Roberts 01926 656369
paul.a.roberts_at_uk.ngrid.com
5
Winter 2006/7 Consultation Report - Summary
http//www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Gas/TYS/outlook/

• Gas demand forecasts materially lower than those
  produced in 2005
• Gas supply positive developments have been
  reported in relation to new infrastructure
  projects, however, uncertainty remains regarding
  utilisation rates
• Electricity market less uncertain. Coal
  generation expected to operate at baseload with
  gas providing marginal capacity
• Weather remains key determinant
• Little / no demand-side response required in an
  average / mild winter
• Sufficient gas to maintain supplies to NDM market
  in a 1 in 50 cold winter
• Information available throughout the winter via
  our website

Contact Simon Griew 01926 656314
simon.griew_at_uk.ngrid.com
6
GBA Notification Service

• New subscription service
• Active GBA notification
• Text message and/or e-mail notifications
• Free service

To register use the National Gas Operational Data
website
http//www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Gas/Data/
Contact Paul Gallagher, 01926 654109
paul.gallagher_at_uk.ngrid.com
7
Information Provision 006 Timescales
Final FMR 3rd Apr 06
Ofgem Defer Decision July 05
Mod Raised 3rd Nov 04
Go-Live 3rd Oct 06
RIA (1) Issued 27th May 05
RIA (2) Issued 3rd Feb 06
IS Development
Effective Consultation Period
RIA (1) Close 26th Jun 05
RIA (2) Close 17th Mar 06
Ofgem Decision 5th May 06
DMR 9th Feb 04
Initial FMR 1st Nov 05
8
006 Publication of near real time info at UK
sub-terminals - implementation
Internet functionality to publish

• NTS input flow data from terminals, sub-terminal,
  storage
• 2 min resolution of data
• Updates every 12 minutes
• Supply updates effectively containing 6 sets of 2
  min data

Approximately another 1.5m investment
Delivers another world first?
Contact Development Chris Logue 01926 656733
chris.logue_at_uk.ngrid.com
Operational 01926 654639
sysop.centre.reporting_at_uk.ngrid.com
9
Information Location

• Available from the National Grid website
• www.nationalgrid .com
• Located with other market data provided by
  National Grid within the Operational Data area of
  the site
• www.nationalgrid.com/uk/gas/data
• Situated on a new button entitled
• Energy Flow Data,
• or at URL
• www.nationalgrid.com/uk/gas/data/EFD
• Information made available in 3 complimentary
  ways across 3 pages

10
Data Access

• Page 1 (Instantaneous Flows
• Latest 12 minute data in tabular and graphical
  form
• Always shows the most currently available data
• Page 2 (Entry Zone Graphs)
• Up to last 24hrs data in graphical form by
  terminal / type
• Can be used to monitor trends
• Period selectable by user
• Page 3 (User Defined downloads)
• Provides flexible data download facility
• Allows user to define download period, and
• Any combination of subterminals/terminals

API interface too ..
11
Example of Screen Layout Page 1
Feedback Form
Telephone Helpline 01926 65 4639
Historical notes
Latest relevant note
6 snapshots of data at 2 minute intervals updated
every 12 minutes
Data issues highlighted
Graph of latest flow data by subterminal
12
Example of Screen Layout Page 1 (Cont)
Graph of latest flows for terminal
Latest total daily flow into NTS
13
Example of Screen Layout Page 2 (last 24 hours)
Feedback Form
Telephone Helpline 01926 65
4639
Selectable time period last 24 hours selected
14
Example of Screen Layout Page 3
Feedback Form
Telephone Helpline 01926 65
4639
Selectable time period
Select original or amended data
Select sites of interest
Selected data displayed graphically
15
006 Implementation Philosophy

• Data as seen by Control Room
• warts and all
• no guarantees
• Users can
• View
• Download
• Access via APIs

Data users will need to interprete data
16
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17
New SO Gas Incentives

• NTS Gas demand forecasting accuracy
• Performance measure based on the accuracy of day
  ahead 1400 UNC gas demand forecast
• NTS Market info website performance
• Performance measures based on
• The availability of the National Grid Web
  information web pages (24/7)
• The timeliness of publication of information
  reports on the website, fore example NTSAFF,
  NTSAPF, SISR03 etc
• In both cases, performance improvement to be
  delivered through
• IS changes,
• training, and
• process/analytical changes.

18
Day Ahead Demand Forecast Incentive

• Option 2 risk/reward DF incentive chosen

Winter only incentive 1300 Day ahead demand
forecast Benchmark set at last years
performance 3.6 11.4 mcm average error
Circulatory issue critical?
19
NTS Exit Reform

• UNC Mod Proposal 0116 Reform of NTS Offtake
  Arrangements
• Points of clarification sought by Wednesday 27th
  September
• Mod Panel to consider potential consultation on
  12th Oct

NTS advocate that this Modification Proposal
should proceed to consultation and that it be
considered in conjunction with Ofgems price
control proposals envisaged ExCR (Exit Capacity
Release) statement envisaged NTS Enduring Exit
Pricing Methodology
An alternate proposal has also been submitted by
E.On
Contact Paul Roberts 01926 656369
paul.a.roberts_at_uk.ngrid.com