Survey

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Survey
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The Asian Disease Imagine that the United States
is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian
disease that is expected to kill 600 people. Two
alternative programs to combat the disease have
been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific
estimates of the consequences of the programs are
as follows
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If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be
saved. If Program B is adopted, there is a
one-third probability that 600 people will be
saved and a two-thirds probability that no people
will be saved. Which of the two programs would
you favor?
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The Evil Tyrant
The Evil Tyrant has taken 20 innocent civilians
hostage. You must choose between Option 1 and
Option 2.
Option 1 Execute one, release the other
19 Option 2 Spin the wheel
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The Wheel
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The Wheel
Life
Life
Life
Life
Life
Life
Life
Death
Life
Life
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The Popcorn Question At the movies, you pay 5
for a bag of popcorn. On the way to your seat,
you spill it all. Question Do you go back and
pay another 5 for another bag of popcorn?
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Whats Janetdoing now? Janet graduated from
college five years ago. She was a philosophy
major who campaigned for pro-choice candidates
and worked as a counselor in a rape-crisis
center. She once tried to organize a boycott of
a professor she said was sexually harrassing
women students.
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Whats Janet doing now? Rank these possibilities
in the order of their likelihood

• Teacher
• Bank teller
• Military officer
• Feminist bank teller
• Social worker

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The Tropical Disease Imagine that the United
States is preparing for the outbreak of an
unusual Tropical disease that is expected to kill
600 people. Two alternative programs to combat
the disease have been proposed. Assume that the
exact scientific estimates of the consequences of
the programs are as follows
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If Program A is adopted, 400 people will
certainly die. If Program B is adopted, there is
a one-third probability that no one will die and
a two-thirds probability that 600 people will
die. Which of the two programs would you favor?
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The Missing Five Dollars Arriving at the movies,
you discover you have 5 less than you thought
you had. Question You had planned to buy
popcorn, which costs 5. Do you still buy it?
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The Monty Hall Problem Pick a door
A
B
C
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The Monty Hall Problem Pick a door
A
B
C
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The Monty Hall Problem Pick a door
B
C
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The Monty Hall Problem Pick a door
?
B
C
Would you like to switch?
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Cognitive Illusions
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Irrational decisions that are very hard to avoid
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Asian Disease and Tropical Disease If Program A
is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If Program
B is adopted, there is a one-third probability
that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds
probability that no people will be saved. If
Program A is adopted, 400 people will certainly
die. If Program B is adopted, there is a
one-third probability that no one will die and a
two-thirds probability that 600 people will die.
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Asian Disease and Tropical Disease If Program A
is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If Program
B is adopted, there is a one-third probability
that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds
probability that no people will be saved. If
Program A is adopted, 400 people will certainly
die. If Program B is adopted, there is a
one-third probability that no one will die and a
two-thirds probability that 600 people will die.
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Asian Disease and Tropical Disease If Program A
is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If Program
B is adopted, there is a one-third probability
that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds
probability that no people will be saved. If
Program A is adopted, 400 people will certainly
die. If Program B is adopted, there is a
one-third probability that no one will die and a
two-thirds probability that 600 people will die.
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The Evil Tyrant Option 1 Execute 1, let 19
go Option 2 Spin the wheel
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10
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7
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Option 1 Execute 1, let 19 go Under this
option, each hostage has a 5 chance of dying.
Option 2 Spin the wheel Under this option, each
hostage has a 10 chance of dying.
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The Popcorn Question Do you buy another bag? The
Missing Five Dollars Do you buy popcorn?
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Whats Janet doing now? Rank these possibilities
in the order of their likelihood Teacher Bank
teller Military officer Feminist bank
teller Social worker
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Whats Janet doing now? Rank these possibilities
in the order of their likelihood Teacher Bank
teller Military officer Feminist bank
teller Social worker
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The Monty Hall Problem Pick a door
YES!
B
C
Would you like to switch?
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