American Government and Politics Today

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American Government and Politics Today

• Chapter 6 - Public Opinion

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Defining Public Opinion

• Public opinion is the aggregate of individual
  attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of
  adults.
• Private opinion becomes public opinion when an
  individual takes some type of action to express
  an opinion to others publicly.
• When there is general public agreement on an
  issue, there is said to be a consensus. When
  opinions are sharply divided, there is divisive
  opinion.

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Defining Public Opinion

• "those opinions held by private persons which
  governments find it prudent to heed. V. O. Key,
  Jr.
• Political Input and Political Output

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Consensus vs. Divisive Opinion
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Political Socialization

• The process by which individuals acquire
  political beliefs and attitudes

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Sources of Political Socialization

• The Family and the Social Environment
• Education as a Source of Political Socialization
• Peers and Peer Group Influence
• Opinion Leaders Influence
• Economic Status
• Media Presentation of Political Issues
• Political events

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Sources of Political Socialization

• The Family and the Social Environment
• Education as a Source of Political Socialization
• Peers and Peer Group Influence
• Opinion Leaders Influence
• Economic Status
• Media Presentation of Political Issues
• Political events

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Sources of Political Socialization

• The Family and the Social Environment
• Education as a Source of Political Socialization
• Peers and Peer Group Influence
• Opinion Leaders Influence
• Economic Status
• Media Presentation of Political Issues
• Political events

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Sources of Political Socialization

• The Family and the Social Environment
• Education as a Source of Political Socialization
• Peers and Peer Group Influence
• Opinion Leaders Influence
• Economic Status
• Media Presentation of Political Issues
• Political events

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Sources of Political Socialization

• The Family and the Social Environment
• Education as a Source of Political Socialization
• Peers and Peer Group Influence
• Opinion Leaders Influence
• Economic Status
• Media Presentation of Political Issues
• Political events

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Sources of Political Socialization

• The Family and the Social Environment
• Education as a Source of Political Socialization
• Peers and Peer Group Influence
• Opinion Leaders Influence
• Economic Status
• Media Presentation of Political Issues
• Political events

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Sources of Political Socialization

• The Family and the Social Environment
• Education as a Source of Political Socialization
• Peers and Peer Group Influence
• Opinion Leaders Influence
• Economic Status
• Media Presentation of Political Issues
• Political events

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Other Sources of Socialization

• Religion
• Gender
• Ethnicity
• Party Identification
• Geography

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"In the first place we should insist that if the
immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an
American and assimilates himself to us, he shall
be treated on an exact equality with everyone
else, for it is an outrage to discriminate
against any such man because of creed, birthplace
or origin.  But this is predicated upon the man's
becoming in very fact an American, and nothing
but an American.  There can be no divided
allegiance here.  Any man who says he is an
American, but something else also, isn't an
American at all.  We have room for but one flag,
the American flag, and this excludes the red
flag, which symbolizes all wars against liberty
and civilization, just as much as it excludes any
foreign flag of a nation to which we are
hostile.  We have room for but one language here,
and that is the English language.  And we have
room for but one sole loyalty and that is a
loyalty to the American people." Theodore
Roosevelt 1907
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Measuring Public Opinion

• The History of Opinion Polls
• 1800s Straw Polls
• By the 1930s modern, relatively accurate polling
  techniques were developed by George Gallup, Elmo
  Roper, and others.
• Sampling Techniques
• Representative Sampling
• The Principle of Randomness
• A purely random sample will be representative
  within the stated margin of error. The larger the
  sample of the population, the smaller the margin
  of error.

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Problems with Polls

• Sampling Errors
• The difference between a samples results and the
  true result if the entire population had been
  interviewed. Dangerous if the sample is too small
  or if the polltakers do not know how to correct
  for common biases in samples.
• Poll Questions
• Yes/no answers are a problem if the issue admits
  to shades of gray. Often, people will attempt to
  please the interviewer.
• Push Polls
• Attempts to spread negative statements about a
  candidate by posing as a polltaker.
• Exit Polls
• Potential impact on western voters
• Recent inaccuracies

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Technology and Opinion Polls

• The Advent of Telephone Polling
• Far easier and less expensive than door-to-door
  polling, and has become standard.
• Too many entities are conducting polls and
  market research.
• Nonresponse Rates Have Skyrocketed
• Internet Polling
• Many voters are still not online
• There are many unscientific straw polls on the
  Internet
• In time, nonresponse rates to Internet polling
  could escalate like those of telephone polls.

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Gallup Poll Accuracy
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Political Preferences and Voting Behavior

• The candidates and political parties individuals
  decide to support are influenced in part by
  certain demographic and socioeconomic factors.
• Demographic Influences
• Education
• Economic Status
• Religious Influence Denomination
• Religious Influence Commitment
• Race and Ethnicity
• Gender
• Geography
• Marital Status

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Public Opinion and the Political Process

• Political Culture and Popular Opinion.
• Political Culture, Support for Our Political
  System, and Political Trust

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Trends in Political Trust
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Public Opinion and Policymaking

• The general public believes the leadership should
  pay attention to popular opinion. Leaders
  themselves are less likely to believe this.
• Setting Limits on Government Action
• Public opinion may be at its strongest in
  preventing politicians from embracing highly
  unpopular policies.
• Setting policy
• Providing politicians with the support to carry
  an initiative forward

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Test Strategy Review

• Review your reading
• Reviewing your notes
• Review the lectures
• Review terms
• Approach test in an organized manner

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Simulation Preparation

• Identify someone in group to run for Speaker
• Review the issues to be addressed.
• Develop proposals or positions on each based on
  the nature of your province
• Be prepared to debate the issues.

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Agenda for Simulation

• Nominations for Speaker of convention
• Election of Convention Speaker
• Appointment of Recording Secretary
• Issue 1 How many chamber will be used to
  comprise the national assembly?
• Issue 2 How will delegates to the national
  assembly be apportioned?
• Issue 3 How many representatives will there be
  in the national assembly?
• Issue 4 How long will representatives be
  elected to office? Will these terms run
  concurrently or staggered?
• Debriefing and Critique

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QUESTIONS?