Global Demographic Issues

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Global Demographic Issues

• Dr Clint R Laurent
• Managing Director
• Global Demographics Limited
• April 2007

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Total Population by Region
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Source of Population Growth 2007 - 2017
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Population Dynamics Scenario 1 the Age Wave
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Population Dynamics Scenario 2 the Land Slide
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Birth Dynamics
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Projected Age Group Change
By 2014 China has more persons over 40 years than
under
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The Gender Issue
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Relative Age and Affluence
15 of the worlds population is in this region
only 7.7 of growth
68 of population growth is in this region
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The Age Dichotomy
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Implications for Lifecycle Stages
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Relative Education Profile
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Household Size and New Households
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Urbanisation 2007 to 2017
380 Mn additional Urban dwellers
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Household Income Distribution US in 2007
Mainly under US12,000 pa
Mainly over US12,000 pa
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Distribution of Earned Income - 2007
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Changing Affluence
Driven by increasing middle class in China and
Developing Asia
Number of Poor households expected to decline
marginally mainly in developing Asia and China.
No improvement in India.
94 are in North America, Affluent Asia and
W.Europe. This drops to 91 by 2017.
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Propensity to be employed and Labour Force Growth
Rates
Chinas labour force peaks in 2010
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The Potential Economic Drivers
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The Aged Workforce Japan Example
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To summarize
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• The world is quite dichotomous in its stages of
  demographic and socio economic development.
• It is also very different in how it is evolving.
• China is very different from other less affluent
  countries in that it has
• A much older population
• The population is not growing as rapidly
• Its workforce is stable/declining in number
• However, it is much better educated

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• The two broad groupings older/affluent and
  younger/poor create two quite different
• business opportunities
• Sociological issues
• These differences will probably not reduce as the
  high birth rates of the majority of the young
  less affluent countries puts them at a strategic
  disadvantage particularly in terms of education
  which in turn impacts earning power, societal
  structure etc.
• This is potentially exacerbated by the gender
  issue.