Title: Pitchbook US template
1J A N U A R Y 1 9 , 2 0 0 7
U R G E N T I S S U E S I N E N E R G Y
F I N A N C I N G S
Presented by Paul Neuhedel
S T R I C T L Y P R I V A T E A N D
C O N F I D E N T I A L
2English_General
This presentation was prepared exclusively for
the benefit and internal use of the JPMorgan
client to whom it is directly addressed and
delivered (including such clients subsidiaries,
the Company) in order to assist the Company in
evaluating, on a preliminary basis, the
feasibility of a possible transaction or
transactions and does not carry any right of
publication or disclosure, in whole or in part,
to any other party. This presentation is for
discussion purposes only and is incomplete
without reference to, and should be viewed solely
in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided
by JPMorgan. Neither this presentation nor any
of its contents may be disclosed or used for any
other purpose without the prior written consent
of JPMorgan. The information in this presentation
is based upon any management forecasts supplied
to us and reflects prevailing conditions and our
views as of this date, all of which are
accordingly subject to change. JPMorgans
opinions and estimates constitute JPMorgans
judgment and should be regarded as indicative,
preliminary and for illustrative purposes only.
In preparing this presentation, we have relied
upon and assumed, without independent
verification, the accuracy and completeness of
all information available from public sources or
which was provided to us by or on behalf of the
Company or which was otherwise reviewed by us.
In addition, our analyses are not and do not
purport to be appraisals of the assets, stock, or
business of the Company or any other entity.
JPMorgan makes no representations as to the
actual value which may be received in connection
with a transaction nor the legal, tax or
accounting effects of consummating a transaction.
Unless expressly contemplated hereby, the
information in this presentation does not take
into account the effects of a possible
transaction or transactions involving an actual
or potential change of control, which may have
significant valuation and other
effects. Notwithstanding anything herein to the
contrary, the Company and each of its employees,
representatives or other agents may disclose to
any and all persons, without limitation of any
kind, the U.S. federal and state income tax
treatment and the U.S. federal and state income
tax structure of the transactions contemplated
hereby and all materials of any kind (including
opinions or other tax analyses) that are provided
to the Company relating to such tax treatment and
tax structure insofar as such treatment and/or
structure relates to a U.S. federal or state
income tax strategy provided to the Company by
JPMorgan. JPMorgans policies prohibit employees
from offering, directly or indirectly, a
favorable research rating or specific price
target, or offering to change a rating or price
target, to a subject company as consideration or
inducement for the receipt of business or for
compensation. JPMorgan also prohibits its
research analysts from being compensated for
involvement in investment banking transactions
except to the extent that such participation is
intended to benefit investors. IRS Circular 230
Disclosure JPMorgan Chase Co. and its
affiliates do not provide tax advice.
Accordingly, any discussion of U.S. tax matters
included herein (including any attachments) is
not intended or written to be used, and cannot be
used, in connection with the promotion, marketing
or recommendation by anyone not affiliated with
JPMorgan Chase Co. of any of the matters
addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding
U.S. tax-related penalties. JPMorgan is a
marketing name for investment banking businesses
of JPMorgan Chase Co. and its subsidiaries
worldwide. Securities, syndicated loan arranging,
financial advisory and other investment banking
activities are performed by a combination of
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., J.P. Morgan plc,
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. and the appropriately
licensed subsidiaries of JPMorgan Chase Co. in
Asia-Pacific, and lending, derivatives and other
commercial banking activities are performed by
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. JPMorgan deal team
members may be employees of any of the foregoing
entities. This presentation does not constitute a
commitment by any JPMorgan entity to underwrite,
subscribe for or place any securities or to
extend or arrange credit or to provide any other
services.
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F I N A N C I N G S
3JPMorgan is the market leader in public power
Tax-Exempt Public Power Underwriting 2002 to 2006
( billion)
Ranked 1 in Public Power
- JPMorgan led the largest public power
transactions in - 2002 JPMorgan led the largest public power
financing ever 11.3 billion for the State of
California DWR - 2003 1.4 billion transaction for Memphis Light,
Gas and Water - 2005 2.5 billion California Department of Water
Resources and 1 billion Puerto Rico Electric
Power Authority
- JPMorgan is the 1 senior manager of public power
financings since 2002 with over 25 of the public
power market share
JPMorgan is a leading public power underwriter
U R G E N T I S S U E S I N E N E R G Y
F I N A N C I N G S
Source Securities Data Corporation as of January
7, 2007
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4Issues in Energy Financing
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2
Financing Products
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5Environmental legislation has costly implications
for utilities
The U.S. is taking a hard look at global warming
legislation
- Utilities are likely targets when the
newly-elected Congress takes on energy issues - Congress plans to establish a fund to finance
alternative energy sources using money from oil
companies - The new Speaker of the House has demonstrated
global warming concerns sponsor of the Safe
Climate Act of 2006 - Over 20 states have renewable energy mandates and
almost 30 states have climate action plans to
limit greenhouse gas emissions - A 20 reduction in CO2 emissions for a single 460
MW PC plant could cost 32 million per year
I S S U E S I N E N E R G Y
F I N A N C I N G
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6Credit perspectives
Industry Outlook
- Moodys
- Moodys 2006-2007 Public Power Outlook projects
continued credit stability through 2007 - Median public rating for public power issuers is
an A2 - SP
- SPs Public Power Report Card similarly cites
the overall credit stability of the industry - Only one non-investment grade rated utility, with
84 of all credits rated at least A- - Fitch
- Fitchs U.S. Power and Gas 2007 claims public
power continues to be a solid and predictable
sector - Ratings of A for wholesale power system and
A for retail systems remain the norm
Credit considerations
I S S U E S I N E N E R G Y
F I N A N C I N G
- Ability and willingness to pass on costs
automatic pass through - Contracts with members length and step-up
provisions - Offsets to construction risks
- Maintenance of competitive position
- Liquidity levels during construction
- Use of proven technology
- Potential environmental issues
- Recovery of capital costs
- Address transmission issues
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7Natural gas and petroleum prices have risen
dramatically in recent years
Average costs of fossil fuels ()1
I S S U E S I N E N E R G Y
F I N A N C I N G
1 Costs measured in 106 Btu
Source Electric Power Monthly. November 2006.
Available http//www.eia.doe.gov
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8Energy consumption and demand are on the rise
Energy consumption by fuel, 1980-2030
(quadrillion Btu)
History
Projections
I S S U E S I N E N E R G Y
F I N A N C I N G
Source Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (Early Release)
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9What is the current environment for financing
power projects?
Positive
Negative
- Investors are requiring a premium for
non-recourse energy projects - Rating agencies are applying greater levels of
scrutiny, particularly to - Liquidity levels
- Fuel sources
- Competitive position
- Rate setting mechanisms (ability and willingness)
- Counterparty risk
- Ability of customer base to absorb higher prices
without material increase in delinquency rates - Concerns over potential changes in transmission
protocol and grid operations by FERC - Investors are beginning to focus on financial
risks associated with environmental issues
- Demand for high quality paper remains strong
although credit spreads have narrowed as
investors seek yield - Issuers implementing full disclosure are
rewarded by investors - Historically low interest rate environment and
current yield curve make both short and long-term
debt financing attractive - Relative to IOUs and independent producers,
public power utilities and cooperatives are
viewed more favorably and are able to attract
capital at a lower cost - Given the recent volatility in oil and gas,
investors are more receptive to coal-fired
projects - Investors like proven technologies
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10Next wave of generation projects
- Coal-fired baseload plants
- Oklahoma Municipal Power Authority 950 MW Red
Rock Generation Facility - Wisconsin Public Power Inc. 300 MW baseload
plant in Escanaba - Illinois Municipal Power Agency/Indiana Municipal
Power Agency partners in Trimble County Unit No.
2, a 732 MW facility - Intermountain Power Agency 2 unit, 1,650 MW
Intermountain Power Project - Orlando Utilities Commission 285 MW clean coal
gasification plant at Stanton Energy Center - Gas-fired projects
- Southern California Public Power Authoritys
Magnolia project - Vernons Malburg Generating Station
- Risks associated with building
- Cost overruns
- Schedule delays
- New environmental regulations
- Cost inflation
- Use of unproven technologies
I S S U E S I N E N E R G Y
F I N A N C I N G
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11Financing Products
Issues in Energy Financing
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2
2
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12Options for long-lead time financings
- Long Term Debt
- The cash market is an attractive option in the
current low interest rate environment - Short Term Debt
- Auction Rate Securities (ARS)
- Variable Rate Demand Bonds (VRDBs)
- Syndicated Loans
- Index Bonds
- CPI Bonds
- Libor Bonds
- Hedging/Derivative products
- Finance
- Commodities
- Energy Prepayments
F I N A N C I N G P R O D U C T S
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13Syndicated loans can help meet utilities
liquidity needs
- Wide product spectrum in credit services
- Letters of Credit
- Liquidity Facilities
- Loans
- Term Loans
- Revolving Lines of Credit
- Bridge Financing
- JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. can provide credit
solutions - Strong ratings of Aa2/P-1 (stable), AA-/A-1
(stable), and A/F-1 (positive) from Moodys,
SP, and Fitch, respectively - Renown credit analysis and innovation
- Innovative solutions for clients that blend
derivatives and credit products - Strong record of agenting multi-bank deals fairly
and smoothly - JPMorgan was ranked as the Best Credit House of
2006 by Credit Magazine
F I N A N C I N G P R O D U C T S
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14What are CPI bonds?
CPI bonds overview
- In the current market there is significant demand
for Municipal CPI Bonds, especially from
institutional investors looking for inflation
hedging investments - Municipal CPI Bonds are floating rate bonds that
pay a fixed spread over the trailing percentage
change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - To date, issuers of Municipal CPI bonds have
swapped them either to a fixed rate or BMA plus a
fixed spread - In the current market, the Issuer can take
advantage of this market opportunity and save 10
or more basis points relative to traditional
fixed rate bonds in selected maturities - Discussions with investors, as well as recent CPI
Bond issues, indicate demand for AAA insured
CPI bonds in the 8 to 20 year maturity range
Issuer
CPI Spread
CPI Bonds
What drives investor demand for municipal CPI
bonds?
F I N A N C I N G P R O D U C T S
- The prospects for inflation have generated
increased investor interest in inflation-linked
products - Buyers of Municipal CPI bonds may be looking to
express a view on inflation, fix a real rate of
return and/or diversify their investment
portfolio - Municipal CPI bonds offer a number of advantages
relative to alternative investments - Commodities and stocks generally increase in
value with rising inflation. However they do not
provide direct or explicit inflation hedges, and
are taxable - Tax-exempt money market funds are exempt but do
not explicitly provide an inflation hedge - Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
principal accretion structure generates phantom
income and therefore have adverse tax implications
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15What are of LIBOR bonds?
Typical Bond Structure
- Maturities range 10-30 years and can be bullets
or amortizing structures - Interest based upon 67 of 3 month LIBOR plus a
fixed spread - Could be structured using a different reference
rate, such as 1 month LIBOR or a constant
maturity swap rate (i.e., 5 or 10 year CMS rate) - Interest Paid Quarterly, with an Actual/Actual
day count convention - Could be structured to pay with a different
frequency or day count basis - May give Issuer a call option in 5 to 10 years
- Investors do not have a put to the Issuer
- Bonds are insured or highly rated (AA- or above)
- Issuer sells bonds through a public offering to
investors - Can be incorporated into multi-modal documents
similar to VRDBs, if requested
Issuer
of LIBOR Spread
of LIBOR Bonds
F I N A N C I N G P R O D U C T S
Why are of LIBOR bonds so desirable to
investors?
- Certain investors evaluate the of LIBOR Bonds
by comparing the of LIBOR bonds
swapped-to-fixed basis versus traditional fixed
rate bonds - When compared to 20 year fixed rate bonds, the
of LIBOR bonds swapped-to-fixed would carry a
lower all-in yield in the current market - Given the 5 year call on the bonds, a of LIBOR
bonds swapped-to-fixed would have a higher all-in
yield in the current market - In addition, the current yield of the of LIBOR
bond is much higher than can be achieved in the
current market on a long dated fixed rate bond
due to the flatness of the yield curve - of LIBOR bonds are a good diversification tool
for this class of investor - If rates increase, fixed rate bonds will
depreciate but the of LIBOR bonds outperform,
offering an attractive hedge
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16Financial hedging products
Hedging products
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17Energy risk management is a high priority
- Utilities should work to institutionalize energy
risk management as part of the utilitys overall
risk management program - Natural gas and electricity risk can be
bifurcated between physical and financial risks - Price and supply can be managed separately
- Systematic price hedging can be advantageous
- Structured transactions can offer significant
value - Emissions markets continue to develop with much
more active interest from Institutional
Investors - An energy hedging program can help reduce price
volatility, decreasing exposure to prices through
periods of extreme price increases and reducing
impact on a utilitys budget
F I N A N C I N G P R O D U C T S
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18Emissions markets
The market
- US SO2 market is illiquid and challenged by
highly inelastic supply/demand side - The nature of the market creates natural longs
and shorts who are compelled to buy or sell with
little sensitivity to price - The vast majority of S02 allowances trade
through the OTC Broker Market. Other sources of
liquidity include - Direct bilateral deals
- OTC via Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
- NYMEX Futures (Clearport only)
- Chicago Climate Exchange Futures
- Prices are highly volatile and depend heavily on
current supply and demand - Natural Shorts
- Large coal intensive generators
- Market makers, Suppliers
- Banks, Hedge Funds, Utilities, Municipalities
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19Emissions markets hedging transactions
The market
- Spot Market Purchases / Sales
- Transactions are settled via electronic transfer
between buyers/sellers EPA allowance accounts. - Physically Settled Options
- Typically trade in larger volumes than the market
for spot purchases/sales - Forward Market Purchases / Sales
- Allows customers to lock in current allowances
prices while delaying the settlement and
associated cash flows until a future date - Customers generally execute these transactions
only with highly rated counter parties. - Financially Settled Swaps Options
- Used when customer has exposure to price
fluctuations in the emissions markets but does
not have a need for the actual physical
allowances. - Vintage Swaps
- Allows naturals to manage their allowance
position across the different vintage years - Historically done as a like-kind exchange.
Recently the ability of these transactions to
achieve this tax benefit has been disputed. - Emission Lending Arrangements
- Natural longs can earn a small rate of interest
on idle allowances in their EPA accounts or
borrow allowances to meet compliance obligation.
F I N A N C I N G P R O D U C T S
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20Renewed interest in energy prepayment projects
Selected tax-exempt commodity prepayment
transactions ( millions)
Prior to Treasury Review
Benefits of commodity prepayments
- Prior to Treasury review, energy prepayment
transactions were well received in the market - There were over 20 municipal transactions
completed with a total par amount of over 2
billion - JPMorgan was involved in 9 gas prepayments prior
to the Treasury review process - Since the new regulations, JPMorgan has led 5
energy prepayments totaling over 4.0 billion - There continues to be strong interest in
prepayment transactions from municipal utilities
- Long term, reliable gas supply
- Discounted price to index
- Take-and-pay gas contract
- Standard NAESB based terms
- Firm deliveries with attractive force majeure
provisions - No bond or other financial obligations under
non-recourse structures - Key drivers interest rates, credit spreads,
tenor, natural gas prices, prepayment volumes,
contract terms
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21How does the basic prepayment structure work?
Municipal Bondholders
Debt Service
Proceeds
Gas
Gas
JPMorgan Ventures Energy
Issuer
Participant(s)
JPMorgan Chase Co.
Guaranty
Prepayment
Floating Payment
Fixed Payment
Fixed Payment
Floating Payment
Floating Payment
F I N A N C I N G P R O D U C T S
Issuer issues tax-exempt debt secured by revenues
from the project, which includes gas sales and
swap receipts
Issuer and JPMVEC execute matched commodity swaps
with AA/Aa category counterparty to convert
pricing from fixed to a floating Index
Swap Counterparty
JPMorgan Chase Co. (Aa3/A) guarantees JPMVEC
delivery obligation to the Issuer
Issuer prepays JPMVEC for a 10/12/15/20 year
supply of firm natural gas
Issuer delivers daily gas volumes to
Participant(s) in exchange for a floating Index
price less a discount
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