Title: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Dengue Fever: A Socioeconomic Scenario
1Vulnerability and Adaptation to Dengue Fever A
Socioeconomic Scenario
- Charmaine Heslop-Thomas and Wilma-Bailey
2AIM
- To develop socioeconomic scenarios to analyse the
vulnerability of communities in Jamaica to
possible increase in the transmission of dengue
and to propose actions that can mitigate the
effects
3RESEARCH QUESTIONS
- What areas of the country are vulnerable?
- What are the characteristics of the individuals
and households that are vulnerable? - What are the factors that are associated with
vulnerability? - How will climate change impact on transmission?
- What modifications can effect change?
- How can community based interventions be
encouraged and supported?
4SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
- Proceed from macro to micro scale
- Identify key sectors and current conditions
- Identify data for dimensions of current and
future vulnerability
5Macro highlights
- More than three decades of economic difficulties
with few sectors showing growth trends. - Market problems for traditional exports.
Inability of domestic agriculture to compete with
imported products. - Manufacturing sector buffeted by high interest
rate policy and inability to retool. - Social environment and international developments
present challenges to tourism. Large numbers but
discounted rooms. - High levels of unemployment is the most
significant and persistent labour market trends
(between 15 and 16 percent).
6Macro Contd
- High levels of inflation with devaluation and
these have their greatest impact on the poor. - Poor performance of the economy reflected in
movements in the GDP. - High percentage of GDP (42 percent) goes toward
debt repayment.
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8FOOD SECURITY AND POVERTY
- There is a very sensitive and immediate
relationship between economic shocks and food
security (Table 1)
9Table 1. Clinical Undernutrition (0 to 35 months)
and Minimum Wage
Year Min. Wage as of Basket of Food Admission for undernutrition
1978 110 140
1980 98 168
1982 62 170
1984 38 230
1986 36 380
1988 50 145
1990 48 190
1992 20 310
removal of food subsidies devaluation
10Despite unfavourable economic trends the level of
poverty is declining
11Table 2 Percentage below the poverty line
-Jamaica
Area 2000 2001
Jamaica 18.7 16.8
Rural 25.1 24.1
KMA 7.6 9.9
Other Towns 13.3 16.6
- Absolute poverty focuses on the ability of
households to purchase the basket of food. - The role of welfare provisions and remittances.
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13Vulnerability Data
- -occupation
- -lack of skills
- -livelihoods at risk
- -welfare/remittances
- -consumption patterns (food and non-food)
- -agricultural practices
- -marketing arrangements
14Housing
- Unemployment and low wage affect access to a
range of basic services-housing for example. - The discrepancy between the growth in the number
of new households in the period 1991 to 2000 (79,
700) and the growth in the housing stock (30,
308). - The cost of basic housing units puts them outside
of the reach of the poor (Table 3)
15Table 3-NHT Income Bands-Jamaica 1999 (J)
Weekly income lt1, 100 1, 1001 to 2,000 2,001 to 3, 000 3001 to 4,000 4001 to 5000 5001 to 6,000 gt6000
Employed 257,907 228,215 121,780 54,812 31,753 15,602 25,117
34.6 30.6 16.3 7.4 4.3 2.1 4.7
- Nearly 82 earn less than J3,000 per week
16Cost Profile of NHT Studio Unit (January
2001)NHT/Building Society Mortgage (J)
- Purchase Price 1, 100,000
- Less Down-Payment 110,000
- NHT Pari Passu 990,000
- Building Society Loan
150, 000 - Monthly Repayment
- NHT Loan (2 per annum)
3, 560.38 - Building Society Loan (14) per annum
1, 805.65 - Building Insurance
363.97 - Total 5, 730.00
- Required Income 19, 100.00 per month
-
17Contd
- The growth of informal housing and associated
unacceptable practices. - Fifty percent of households in the island have
access to flush toilets - Seventy one percent have access to piped water
(urban and rural disparities) but in many cases,
water is piped into a common yard necessitating
storage
18Vulnerability data
- -measure access to piped water
- -types of storage
- -sewage disposal facilities
- -household waste
- -overcrowding
19SETTING THE BOUNDARIES OF THE AREA TO BE STUDIED
- Inadequacy of data numerical and spatial.
- Mapping of outbreaks to identify spatial
patterns. - Selection of the parish of St. James with 88 out
of a reported 224 cases in 1998. - Setting the boundaries
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