Rethinking Nuclear Power 3' Environmental Choices

1
Rethinking Nuclear Power3. Environmental Choices

• Global warming
• Oil and gas depletion
• Mining, coal, oil shale, tar sands
• Hydrogen
• Wind, hydro, solar
• Corn, sugarcane, cellulosic ethanol, biodiesel

Bob Hargraves, Hanover NH
2
Rethinking Nuclear Power3. Environmental Choices

• Global warming

Bob Hargraves, Hanover NH
3
Mans 6.9 billion tonnes of annual carbon
emissions seem small.
Units are 1012 kg (Gt). Purple numbers are
amounts stored. Red numbers are annual flows.
http//www.globe.gov/fsl/html/templ.cgi?carboncycl
eDialangesnav1
4
IPCC finds global warming of 0.6oC during the
20th century.
http//www.ipcc.ch/pdf/climate-changes-2001/scient
ific-basis/scientific-spm-en.pdf
5
A two century time scale shows a medieval warming
period.
The colored lines represent different
temperature reconstructions.
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period
6
Temperature is strongly correlated with
atmospheric carbon dioxide.
IPCC very likely due to the observed increase
in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. Naysayers
CO2 dissolves better in cold water. IPCC models
with GHG causality accurately predict historical
climate
http//rst.gsfc.nasa.gov/Sect16/Sect16_2.html
7
Every IPCC-modeled scenario shows rising CO2 for
a half-century.
A1Brapid economic growth A1F1 fossil
dependence A1T non-fossil energy
sources B1 reduced material intensity B2 local
solutionsenvironmental protection social equity
http//www.ipcc-wg2.org/
8
IPCC mitigation recommendations include nuclear
power.

• Improved supply and distribution efficiency fuel
  switching from coal to gas nuclear power
  renewable heat and power (hydropower, solar,
  wind, geothermal and bioenergy) combined heat
  and power early applications of Carbon Dioxide
  Capture and Storage (CCS)

http//www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/a
r4_syr_spm.pdf
9
Oceans have not warmed in 2003-2008.
Argos buoys traverse the ocean depths, rise and
report data to satellites every 10 days. There
has been a slight cooling, but nothing really
significant, says Josh Willis, NASA. Sea level
has risen ½ inch in 4 years, possibly from
increased melting of glaciers.
http//www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/sto
ry.html?id8926a1d3-f43f-4f8b-811d-0a0daa3e1012k
39580
http//www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?story
Id88520025
10
World reaction exaggerates immediate global
warming effects.
West coast Hudson Bay polar bear population

• Year Population
• 1987 1200
• 2004 950 -15/yr
• 1981 500 116/yr

• Bear population rises and falls.
• Hunters shoot 49 bears annually.

Bjorn Lomborg, Cool It, p 6
11
Not all global warming effects are bad.

• Europe now
• 200,000 deaths from excess heat.
• 1,500,000 deaths from excess cold.
• Britain _at_ ?3.6oF
• 2,000 heat deaths
• -20,000 cold deaths

http//www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13932257/
Bjorn Lomborg, Cool It,
12
Kyoto is expensive and inadequate.

• If all had signed, 2100 temps would rise by 4.4oF
  rather than 4.7oF.
• Transition economies can sell their CO2 rights to
  industrial nations.
• As is, Kyoto will delay the 4.7oF increase 7 days
  past 2100.

• If full participation, Kyoto costs 180B/yr, or
  0.5 GDP.
• 21st century cost 5T.
• Benefit 2T, 0.3oF.

Cool It, The Skeptical Environmentalists Guide
to Global Warming, Bjorn Lomborg, 2007
13
Bjorn Lomborg proposes solving problems directly,
not via Kyoto.
14
The DICE model relates economic output and
greenhouse gasses.
courtesy of Dartmouth Assoc Prof Karen
Fisher-Vanden
15
William Nordhauss optimal scenario is a 27/ton
carbon tax rising 2-3/yr.
A Question of Balance, Richard Nordhaus, 2008
http//www.econ.yale.edu/nordhaus/homepage/dice_m
ss_072407_all.pdf
16
James Lovelocks Gaia is a world of co-evolving
life forms.
Red, yellow indicate abundant algae. Blue,
purple are tropical ocean deserts.
Climate regulation evolved during 20,000-year
ice-age cycles. Algae grow in seawater lt 10o
C. Algae are essential to climate
regulation. Lovelocks model shows algal death
with CO2 levels at 500 ppm, and Earths mean
temperature rises from 16o C to 24o C.
http//oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi/browse.pl
17
Entrepreneurs assuage our guilt at 14/ton of
carbon to plant 3 trees.

• Would be a good deal compared to 20-70 a ton
  for IGCC sequestration.
• The 3 trees must live full lifetimes to absorb
  the ton of carbon.

http//www.carboncaring.com/carbonoffsets.html
18
Third world stove soot contributes to global
warming.
Black carbon is responsible for 18 of global
warming. CO2 is responsible for 40 Fuel is twigs
and dung. Soot not even mentioned in IPCC
2007report.
The glaciers in the Himalayas are at risk of
melting. New cook stoves can reduce soot by more
than 90.
http//www.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/science/earth/16
degrees.html?refworld
19
Rethinking Nuclear Power3. Environmental Choices

• Oil

Bob Hargraves, Hanover NH
20
Peak oil is controversial.

• Peak oil happens when consumption surpasses new
  discoveries.
• Petroleum producers benefit from optimistic
  forecasts that discourage alternative energy.
• Peak oil will be extended by more energy
  intensive production
• heavy crude in Venezuela
• tar sands in Alberta

http//www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/prese
ntations/2000/long_term_supply/sld009.htm
21
World oil reserves are concentrated.
US consumes 7.55 per year.
http//www.physics.otago.ac.nz/eman/The20End20of
20Oil20essay201.pdf
22
USGS tracked non-OPEC, non-USSR peaks.
http//www.odac-info.org/links/documents/LBST_Coun
tdown_2004-10-12.pdf
23
Oil supplies depend on new discoveries.
IEA Energy Outlook 2004 for oil production by
source
http//www.physics.otago.ac.nz/eman/The20End20of
20Oil20essay201.pdf
24
Colin Campbell and ASPO say peak oil is at hand.
http//www.physics.otago.ac.nz/eman/The20End20of
20Oil20essay201.pdf
25
After 2015, easily accessible supplies will no
longer keep up with demand.
22 January 2008 After 2015, easily accessible
supplies of oil and gas probably will no longer
keep up with demand. As a result, we will have
no choice but to add other sources of energy
renewables, yes, but also more nuclear power and
unconventional fossil fuels such as oil sands.
Jeroen van der VeerChief ExecutiveRoyal Dutch
Shell plc
http//www.shell.com/home/content/aboutshell-en/ou
r_strategy/shell_global_scenarios/two_energy_futur
es/two_energy_futures_25012008.html
26
Rethinking Nuclear Power3. Environmental Choices

• Tar sands, oil shale

Bob Hargraves, Hanover NH
27
New petroleum sources are more energy consuming.

• Tar sands are mined,
• heated,
• oil extracted,
• refined,
• with natural gas.
• Nuclear reactor?
• - heat source
• power
• hydrogen

Alberta tar sands excavation
http//www.world-nuclear-news.org/EE-New_study_of_
Albertas_nuclear_energy_options_310308.html
28
The US has the worlds largest oil shale deposits.

• 3 trillion barrels in world, as much as all the
  oil.
• 62 of it in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming.
• Heat can extract oil in situ.
• Another nuclear reactor heat application?

Oil shale burning
Greenpeace-shuttered Australian plant
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale
29
New sources release more carbon.

• Gas-To-Liquid plants are under construction in
  Qatar and Nigeria.
• 18 billion GTL plants convert natural gas to
  ultra clean diesel.
• 45 of the natural gas is burned in the process.

• South Africa SASOL makes gasoline from coal,
  doubling CO2 emissions.
• Sasol could build America's first commercial
  coal-to-gasoline plant in the coal-rich state of
  Pennsylvania.

http//www.shell.com/home/content/qatar/qatar_shel
l_gtl_project/qatar_shell_gtl_project_22092003_143
0.html
www.btimes.co.za/99/0530/comp/comp04.htm
30
Dennis Meadows Limits to Growth, 1972, showed
effects of finite resources.
http//www.aspoitalia.net/images/stories/aspo5pres
entations/Meadows_ASPO5.pdf
31
As oil gets harder to get, developing nations
face conflict and pollution.
Kegbara Dere, Nigeria AP/Seattle Times Aug 20,
2007
32
Rethinking Nuclear Power3. Environmental Choices

• Natural gas

Bob Hargraves, Hanover NH
33
Cooking with gas saves the thermal energy lost
generating electricity.
Electric stove 2600 watt surface heating element
x 1 hour x 0.15 / KWH 0.39
Gas stove 2.6 KWH x 3412 BTU / KWH x 100 f3
natural gas / 100,000 BTU x 14 / 1000 f3
natural gas 0.12
http//www.jupiterimages.com/popup2.aspx?navigatio
nSubTypeitemdetailsitemID22778402
34
Burning natural gas instead of coal emits half
the CO2 per unit of energy.
35
Burning natural gas instead of coal emits half
the CO2 per unit of energy.
36
Natural gas combined cycle power generators are
efficient.
Energy efficiency of GE Model H combined cycle
system is 60. Typical efficiency of coal or
nuclear steam plant is 33. Natural gas releases
only half the CO2 per BTU of coal. So CO2 per
KWH is only 27 that of coal.

• Energy is obtained from both
• gas turbine combustion cycle
• steam turbine cycle

http//www.gepower.com/prod_serv/products/gas_turb
ines_cc/en/h_system/index.htm
37
Natural Gas CC investments are low.
1,394
http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/pdf/ele
ctricity_tables.pdf
38
Natural Gas CC investments are low.
1.394
http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/pdf/ele
ctricity_tables.pdf
39
Natural gas prices doubled 2002-2007.
per 1000 cu ft
http//tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_dcu_nu
s_m.htm
40
Natural gas prices are volatile.
http//tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3045us3m.ht
m
41
World natural gas proven reserves have increased
as prices rise.
211 US Reserves 10 years of US Consumption
http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/nat_gas.pdf
42
Louisiana Haynesville Shale gas discovery doubled
US reserves.
April 30, 2009 WSJ Huge new fields in Louisiana,
Texas, Arkansas, and Pennsylvania may hold 2,000
trillion cubic feet of natural gas. That's
nearly 100 years of current US consumption.
http//online.wsj.com/article/SB124104549891270585
.html
43
North America natural gas discovery and
production will peak.
http//www.peakoil.net/JL/JeanL.html
44
The US will import more natural gas.
http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/nat_gas.pdf
45
New offshore LNG terminal can provide 20 of New
Englands gas.
www.excelerateenergy.com/downloads/NG_Fact_Sheets.
pdf
46
Electric power prices change daily.
http//www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/wholesale
/wholesale.html
47
The power pool accepts offers from producers a
day ahead.
Hypothetical example of electric power offered to
power pool.
Demand 800 MW
48
The power pool accepts offers from producers a
day ahead.
Hypothetical example of electric power offered to
power pool.
Demand 800 MW
49
Natural gas drives all power profits.
Hypothetical example of electric power offered to
power pool.
800 MW
All generators are paid the top price,
60/MWh. What is the economically sensible price
to offer to sell at?
50
Rethinking Nuclear Power3. Environmental Choices

• Coal

Bob Hargraves, Hanover NH
51
The power industry promotes clean coal.
52
Hospital Medicare first asks about black lung
disease.
53
US coal power plants generate 130 million tons of
solid waste annually.
almost as much as the 169 million tons of
municipal solid waste sent to landfills.
http//www.epa.gov/msw/facts.htm
http//www.catf.us/projects/power_sector/power_pla
nt_waste/background.php
54
EPA reported US annual SO2 air pollution of 13
million tons.
EPA more than 13 million tons per year, comes
from electric utilities, especially those that
burn coal.
http//www.epa.gov/airtrends/2007/report/sulfurdio
xide.pdf
55
Richard Wilson finds 2,400 deaths per million
tons of SO2.
Health Effects of Fossil Fuel Burning Assessment
and Mitigation, Wilson, Colome, Spengler, Wilson
, 1980, Ballinger Publishing Company RA577.C63H4
56
Death rates increase with sulfur dioxide air
pollution.
An Association between Air Pollution and
Mortality in Six U.S. Cities December 9,
1993 Dockery, Pope, et al
P Portage, Wisconsin T Topeka, Kansas W
Watertown, Massachusetts L St. Louis H Harriman,
Tennessee S Steubenville, Ohio.
http//content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/329/24/17
53
57
The Clean Air Task Force worries about coal plant
pollution.
http//www.catf.us/publications/reports/Dirty_Air_
Dirty_Power.pdf
58
Long-term exposure to SO2 and fine particle air
pollution has a mortality risk of 4-8 per
10µg/m3.
Published 2002 with data through 1998 500,000
subjects Controlled for - cigarette smoking -
body mass index, diet - occupational exposure -
regional differences
MortalityRelative RiskMean (95 CI)
http//jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/287/9/11
32
59
Long-term exposure to SO2 and fine particle air
pollution has a mortality risk of 4-8 per
10µg/m3.
http//jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/287/9/11
32
60
Two coal power plants alone cause over 70
premature deaths per year.
2002 Harvard School of Public Healths Jonathan
Levy and Jon Spangler compute the effect of
grandfathering in the Clean Air Act.
http//www.mtpc.org/renewableenergy/public_policy/
DG/resources/2002-01_JAWMA-paper_Levy-Spengler.pdf
61
US fossil fuel power plant emissions cause 24,000
deaths annually.
Clean Air Task Force June 2004
http//www.catf.us/publications/reports/Dirty_Air_
Dirty_Power.pdf
62
Reducing emissions by 7 million tons SO2 would
save 12,300 lives a year.
12,300
Clean Air Task Force
http//www.catf.us/publications/reports/Abt_PM_Rep
ort.pdf
63
Coal plant emissions cost at least 1,750 lives
per million tons of SO2.
64
Each 1 GW clean coal power plant causes 25 deaths
per year.

• lower of CATF, Wilson estimates
• EPA statistic
• Clean Air Task Force lobbying goal
• 2006 coal power production
• totaling5675 US deaths/year

65
Each 1 GW nuclear power plant causes 0.07 cancers
per year.

• radiation exposure of nuclear fuel cycle
• BEIR VII finding
• US population
• US 2006 nuclear power production
• totaling6 US cancers/year ( 3 deaths)

66
114 new US coal burning plants will add 65 GW of
electric power.
http//www.netl.doe.gov/coal/refshelf/ncp.pdf
67
95 new US coal burning plants will add 51 GW of
electric power.
http//www.netl.doe.gov/coal/refshelf/ncp.pdf
68
Wall Street Shows Skepticism Over Coal.
http//online.wsj.com/article/SB120209079624339759
.html
69
Coal is plentiful in the US.
Peabody Energy New Rochelle Mine in Powder River
Basin of Wyoming
Peabody Energy per New York Times, March 19, 2008
70
US coal exports are growing and prices are rising.
http//www.nytimes.com/2008/03/19/business/19coal.
html
71
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle coal power
has promise.

• GasificationPulverized coal, water, oxygen make
  syngas H2 and CO.
• Combined cycle- combustion cycle syngas burned
  in turbine
• steam cycle excess heat runs turbine
• Examples260 MW Tampa Electric plant (1996)
• 630 MW 2B Edwardsport IL, Duke (2012)
• Promises
• 50 efficiency
• Steam added to syngas CO H2O ?H2 (burned)
  CO2 (captured)

Polk Power Station, Tampa
http//www.tampaelectric.com/news/powerstation/pol
k/
72
Polk has oxygen, 2 turbines, uses 60 MW.
http//www.dora.state.co.us/puc/presentations/Info
rmationMeetings/CO_PUC_IGCC_101.pdf
73
IGCC is complex and costly 3-4B/GW.
Operating costs 56 / MWh 79 / MWh with carbon
capture RD support US DOE dropped out of
FutureGen, which Included sequestration. Costs0.
95B ? 1.8B. DOE will instead help fund carbon
capture at existing plants. No IGCC with carbon
capture in the works.
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igcc
74
FutureGen coal plant in Mattoon may be revived.
FutureGen coal plant in Mattoon may
be revived Sen. Dick Durbin pushes to get 1.87
billion project back on track By Jim Tankersley
and Joshua BoakJanuary 08, 2009 WASHINGTONThe
massive economic stimulus bill taking shape in
Congress could include a controversial
billion-dollar boost for Illinois the
resurrection of an experimental coal power plant
in Mattoon.
http//archives.chicagotribune.com/2009/jan/08/bus
iness/chi-thu-mattoon-coal-power-futurjan08
75
Vehicles can run on gasified wood.
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wood_gas
76
A coal power plant emits enough CO2 to fill a
hot-air balloon every 5 seconds.
100,000 cu ft, 50 ft diameter 3.1 tons per
balloon 100 car train of coal per day 121 tons C
per car 44 tons CO2 per 12 tons C
77
1.6 million tons of CO2 erupted from Lake Nyos in
1986, suffocating 1,700 people.

• Each US 1 GW coal power plant generates 7 million
  tons of CO2 per year.
• Sequestration of 227 GWY of coal power production
  of CO2 means burying 1,500 Lake Nyos worth a
  year.

http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nyos
78
Each 1-mile 100 hopper-car coal train CCS would
fill a 367 tank-car CO2 train.
C weighs 12 units CO2 weighs 44 units 44/12
3.67 For the 227 GW US coal power this is 833
miles of tank cars per day. (It costs almost as
much for diesel fuel to transport Wyoming coal as
for the coal itself.) CO2 pipelines?
http//coal2nuclear.com/
79
CO2 might be stored in oil fields, saline
sandstone reservoirs, or deep coal seams.
IPCC 2005 report
http//arch.rivm.nl/env/int/ipcc/pages_media/SRCCS
-final/SRCCS_Chapter5.pdf
80
CO2 is being stored beneath the North Sea at
2,700 tonnes/day.
7 of 1GWs CO2
http//arch.rivm.nl/env/int/ipcc/pages_media/SRCCS
-final/SRCCS_Chapter5.pdf
81
Liquid CO2 might be pumped into the cold,
high-pressure, deep seabed.
http//arch.rivm.nl/env/int/ipcc/pages_media/SRCCS
-final/SRCCS_SummaryforPolicymakers.pdf
82
China is the biggest coal user.

• 10 GDP growth planned goal to lower BTU/GDP
  20.
• 1.5B experimental 20,000 barrels/day
  coal-to-fuel plant.
• Expect to replace 10 of oil imports by 2020.
• 2010 GreenGen IGCC demo of efficiency and
  pollution.
• 7-10 hydro, wind, solar energy goal.
• Buying nuclear reactors- 4 Westinghouse for
  9B,- 2 Areva for 12B,
• - Target 160 GW by 2030.

• Uses more coal than all the US, EU, Japan.
• One new coal power plant every 7-10 days.
• CO2 emissions now exceed USs.
• 700,000 air pollution deaths per year.

http//www.american.com/archive/2007/may-june-maga
zine-contents/all-the-coal-in-china/
http//www.technologyreview.com/Energy/18069/
83
Rethinking Nuclear Power3. Environmental Choices

• Hydrogen

Bob Hargraves, Hanover NH
84
Hydrogen promises are appealing.2006 State of
Union pollution-free cars that run on hydrogen.

• Only water exhaust.
• no pollution
• no greenhouse gasses
• Quiet, clean, fuel cell and electric motor move
  car.

http//news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7101708.stm
85
Hydrogen is only an energy carrier.

• There is no free hydrogen on earth.
• reacts strongly, makes water.
• free H2 escapes gravity.
• Industrial hydrogen now is made from natural gas,
  releasing carbon.
• Electrolysis requires electric power.

NGC 604 hydrogen cloud forming stars
86
Hydrogen storage and distribution is challenging.

• Hydrogen liquefaction is costly, at 15 KWH per
  kg.
• Generating the electricity releases the same 20
  lbs of CO2 as the equivalent gasoline gallon.
• Storage at -459 Fo is lossy.
• Compressing H to 5000 psi uses 30 more energy.
• Metal containers embrittle.
• Hydrogen pipelines cost even more than power
  lines.

http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_economy
Romm, The Hype About Hydrogen
87
Titania photocatylizes hydrogen.
The Quarrel of Oberon and Titania (1846), by Sir
Joseph Paton
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titania
88
Startups promise cheap hydrogen.
Titania is titanium dioxide -- white paint
pigment. Titania catalyzes reactions that split
water. Nanoptek is but one innovative startup
with DOE, NASA, 4.7 VC funding.
titania
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titanium_dioxide
http//www.technologyreview.com/Energy/20134/
89
Hydrogen can be produced using high temperature
nuclear reactors.
90
Rethinking Nuclear Power3. Environmental Choices

• Corn, sugarcane, cellulosic ethanol, biodiesel

Bob Hargraves, Hanover NH
91
Corn ethanol is a delusional diversion.

• Corn ethanol is a carbon-neutral fuel for
  automobiles.
• Corn ethanol reduces foreign oil dependency.
• True?

92
The EIA suggests carbon neutrality.
http//www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energyfacts/sources/re
newable/ethanol.html
93
It takes a lot of energy besides sunlight to
produce ethanol.

• Fossil fuels are a feedstock for fertilizer.
• Energy is needed for farm equipment and ethanol
  factories.
• USDA estimates 100 BTU is expended to make 134
  BTU of ethanol.
• The out/in ratio is termed energy balance,
  134/100 1.34 here.

http//zfacts.com/p/60.html
94
To be carbon-neutral, power ethanol production
with ethanol.
sunlight
134 BTU gross
Raise corn and produce ethanol
34 BTU net
100 BTU used
95
How many acres of farmland would produce US
transportation fuel?

• US transportation uses 28 quads per year.
• An ethanol gallon contains 76,000 BTU.
• One bushel of corn can make 2.5 gallons of
  ethanol.
• An acre can produce 148 bushels of corn.

96
How many acres of farmland would produce US
transportation fuel?

• US transportation uses 28 quads per year.
• An ethanol gallon contains 76,000 BTU.
• One bushel of corn can make 2.5 gallons of
  ethanol.
• An acre can produce 148 bushels of corn.

97
How many acres of farmland would produce US
transportation fuel?

• US transportation uses 28 quads per year.
• An ethanol gallon contains 76,000 BTU.
• One bushel of corn can make 2.5 gallons of
  ethanol.
• An acre can produce 148 bushels of corn.

98
How many acres of farmland would produce US
transportation fuel?

• US transportation uses 28 quads per year.
• An ethanol gallon contains 76,000 BTU.
• One bushel of corn can make 2.5 gallons of
  ethanol.
• An acre can produce 148 bushels of corn.

99
How many acres of farmland would produce US
transportation fuel?

• US transportation uses 28 quads per year.
• An ethanol gallon contains 76,000 BTU.
• One bushel of corn can make 2.5 gallons of
  ethanol.
• An acre can produce 148 bushels of corn.

• 3.9 billion acres of farmland.
• The US has 1 billion acres of farmland.
• 10 of farmland is used for corn.

100
Brazils sugarcane yields 832 BTU for every 100
BTU consumed.
(Sugarcane ethanol is less expensive than corn
ethanol, so the US adds a 0.54/gal tariff.)
Khosla Think Outside the Barrel
101
Ethanol has other concerns.

• To reduce NOX, ethanol replaced MBTE in gasoline,
  but oxygenates not needed since 2005 law.
• Ethanol absorbs water, so it is hard to
  distribute.
• Ethanol delivers 2/3 the MPG of gasoline.
• ethanol 84,600 BTU/gal
• gasoline 125,000 BTU/gal

????????????????
???????????????????????????
102
NYT Corn prices doubled.

• Doubled tortilla prices sparked riots in Mexico.
• Costs for animal feed rose 25-30 in 2007.
• New law mandates increasing ethanol production
• 2007 7 billion gallons corn ethanol
• 2022 36 billion corn and cellulosic ethanol

http//www.nytimes.com/2007/12/18/business/18food.
html
http//www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/12/18/business
/NA-FIN-US-Ethanol-Beyond-Corn.php
103
The Economist also sees a problem.

• Food prices have risen 75 since 2005.
• US 7 billion ethanol subsidies total 1.90 per
  gallon.
• Filling one SUV tank uses enough corn to feed one
  person for one year.

http//www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?
story_id10250420
104
Converting rainforests for biofuel production
releases CO2 into the air.
Land Use Change
Converting rainforests, peatlands,savannas, or
grasslands inBrazil, Southeast Asia, and the
United States releases 17 to 420 times more CO2
than the annual GHG reductions from biofuels.
560 billon tonnes of carbon are locked up in
plants.
http//www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/115
1861v1
http//www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/115
2747
105
Corn-based ethanol nearly doubles green house gas
emissions.
Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases
Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use
Change Most prior studies failed to count the
carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide
respond to higher prices and convert forest and
grassland to new cropland to replace the grain
(or cropland) diverted to biofuels corn-based
ethanol, instead of producing a 20 savings,
nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years
and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years.
Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn
lands, increase emissions by 50.
29 February 2008Vol. 319. no. 5867, pp. 1238 -
1240
Searchinger, Heimlich, Houghton, Dong, Elobeid,
Fabiosa, Togoz,, Hayes, Yu
http//www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/115
1861
106
Plants and trees contain 2 kinds of cellulose
that can make ethanol.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ethanol
Process Development Unit
http//www1.eere.energy.gov/biomass/sugar_platform
.html
107
US DOE 1,300 million tons of biomass
potential?130 billion gallons of fuel.
http//www.eere.energy.gov/biomass/pdfs/final_bill
ionton_vision_report2.pdf
108
USDA foresees 28 billion gallons of ethanol from
310 million tons biomass.
Forest Residues (130)
Crop Residues (152)
Perennial Crops (26)
2017, excluding corn ethanol
http//www.usda.gov/oce/speeches/Collins203-28-07
(2).ppt
109
28 billion ethanol gallons might displace 5 of
the 7.5 billion oil bbl use.
Math check
110
Many companies are investing in cellulosic
ethanol.

• Synthetic Genomics
• Syntec
• Novozyme
• Genencor
• Diversa
• Iogen
• Ceres
• BRI
• Dupont/BP

Gasification
Direct Synthesis?

• Celunol
• Clearfuels
• Canavialis
• Edenspace
• Agrivada
• Mascoma
• Alellyx

Algae
Cellulosic Bioethanol
Khosla Think Outside the Barrel
111
Locally, Mascoma Corporation has received state
support (not from NH).

• 67 million, 5 million gal/year demonstration
  switchgrass to ethanol plant in Tennessee.
  announced
• Michigan commercial-scale wood to ethanol
  bio-refinery. announced
• Multi-feedstock demonstration scale ethanol
  refinery in New York. construction begun

http//www.mascoma.com/welcome/index.html
112
Feb 29, 2008 Indeck Energy Services upgrades
Alexandria NH 16 MW plant.
25 tractor trailers of woodchips per
day. 225,000 tons of woodchips per year. Takes
water from Smith River, to use for cooling and
emission control system. Not discharged to
river. Uses tree tops, limbs, and other
byproducts of paper or lumber industries. To
save landfill space, wood ash will be made
available to area businesses for agriculture and
compost neutralization.
http//www.indeckenergy.com/assets/File/Indeck-Bro
ch-120720(web20high).pdfzoom73
113
There is not enough land for biofuels.

• On the average, in one year one acre can grow 3
  tons of dry biomass, whether corn, grass, or
  trees.
• Burning one ton of dry biomass yields 16 million
  BTU.
• The US consumes 100 quads annually.
• 100 Quadrillion BTU x (1 ton/16 million BTU)
  x ( 1 acre/3 tons) 2 billion acres required
• US has 1 billion acres of farmland

http//wwf
114
Rethinking Nuclear Power3. Environmental Choices

• Solar

Bob Hargraves, Hanover NH
115
The Solar Grand Plan is grand.

• 46,000 square miles of solar arrays (19 of SW)
• HV DC transmission lines from southwest US
• 420 billion subsidies
• Mix of photovoltaic and concentrated solar
• 14,000 GW by 2050
• 69 of US electricity

Tucson Electric 4.6 MW 88 acre plant
ZWEIBEL, MASON, AND JAMES, SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN,
JAN 2008
http//www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html
http//greenwatts.com/pages/SolarStats/SolarDescr.
html
116
Air compressed to 1,100 psi will store the solar
energy for 16 hours.
Zweibel et al, A Solar Grand Plan, Scientific
American, Jan 2008
117
Compressed air cools, requiring reheating by
natural gas.
To produce 1 kwh A 60 efficient natural gas
combined cycle NGCC generator uses 1.67 kwh of
natural gas. Compressed air energy storage CAES
uses 1.17 kwh of natural gas plus 0.69 kwh of
solar electricity. 29 of electric power lost.
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAES
118
Natural gas adds to baseload coal power to meet
varying demand.
Total demand ?
Natural gas
Coal
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Time of day
119
Wind power can replace some natural gas power.
Natural gas
Wind
Coal
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Time of day
120
Using wind to replace coal increases gas
consumption.
Natural gas
Wind
Coal
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Time of day
121
Abengoa will build a 280 MW solar thermal power
plant outside Phoenix.
Worlds largest, 1900 acres, 1B, 2011. Utility
will contract with Abengoa for 30 years _at_
0.14/KWH. Parabolic troughs heat oil to 400oC.
6 hours of heat stored in 150,000 tons of molten
salt, Steam turbines generate power, requiring
water to condense steam. Contingent on US tax
credit and state approval.
http//www.technologyreview.com/Biztech/20356/?nli
d911
http//www.abengoasolar.es/en/about_us/general/pre
sentation_videos/v_solana.html
122
Albiasa plans a 1 billion 200 MW solar thermal
power plant at Kingman.
Announced April 2009 5/watt 9 hrs/day molten
salt thermal storage
"there is a rush on to get plants started by
2010 so that they can qualify for stimulus funds
under the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act.
Albiasa will be looking to secure such funds"
http//phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/200
9/04/20/daily13.html
123
Rethinking Nuclear Power3. Environmental Choices

• Wind

Bob Hargraves, Hanover NH
124
The US had 16.5 GW of installed wind power at the
start of 2008.
http//www.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/windpoweri
ngamerica/wind_installed_capacity.asp
125
The US coasts and Great Plains have adequate wind
for power.
http//www.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/windpoweri
ngamerica/wind_maps.asp
126
Here in New England wind gt 13 mph is on mountain
ridges and coastlines.
Killington Mountain chairlift
Ice on rotor blade
http//truewind.teamcamelot.com/ne/
127
Wind speeds of 17 mph are expected at the Cape
Wind site.
http//www.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/windpoweri
ngamerica/maps_template.asp?stateabma
128
In 1999 Cape Wind proposed 130 wind turbines
generating 0.420 GW.
129
Cape Wind farm is out of ferry routes and
airplane paths.
http//maps.google.com/maps?qhttp//bbs.keyhole.c
om/ubb/download.php?Number31051tkom1
130
Cape Wind turbines on the horizon as would be
seen from Edgartown.
http//www.capewind.org/modules.php?opmodloadnam
eSectionsfileindexreqviewarticleartid9page
1
131
When the wind blows the turbine generates power.
Cape Winds 130 3.2 MW turbines could generate
420 MW power. Company expects, on average, to
generate 40, or 170 MW. All wind resources must
be similarly derated. Nuclear power plants
operate over 90 of the time.
http//www.darkroastedblend.com/2007/01/wind-power
-in-stormy-waters.html
http//www.darkroastedblend.com/2007/01/wind-power
-in-stormy-waters.html
132
Wind turbines are huge.
GE 3.6sl offshore Power 3.6 MW Diameter111
meters Swept area8,677 m2
133
Picture 2 football fields in a vertical plane, on
a 100 meter stalk.
134
It will take time to get to this step.
Coast Guard approved. US Minerals Management
Service approved no bad environmental
impact. Governor Romney blocked. Governor
Patrick approves. Senator Kennedy opposes. FAA
still reviewing. US Army Corp of Engineers
mostly positive. Still need 9 state and local
permits.
135
Texas has the most wind power.
Texas wind power is 4.4 GW. TXU and Shell plan 3
GW wind farm. Boone Pickens plans 10B 4 GW
farm. TXU halted plans for 8 new coal plants.
- seeking pre carbon tax status? - needed good
PR for KKR takeover TXU orders two Mitsubishi
1.7 GW nuclear reactors. NRG filed for 2
reactors.
RIPTexas Oil
http//www.nytimes.com/2008/02/23/business/23wind.
html
136
First Wind is building wind farms in Maine.
Mars Hill160 million for 42 MW. 3.80/watt _at_
30 availability 12.60/watt
"limited recourse project financing and tax
equity."
http//www.firstwind.com/aboutFirstWind/history.cf
m
http//www.firstwind.com/projects/me
137
Rethinking Nuclear Power3. Environmental Choices

• Hydro

Bob Hargraves, Hanover NH
138
TransCanadas Wilder Dam runs 30 of the time,
generating 41 MW, max.
139
Across the Mascoma River from LuiLuis is a 1.5
MW hydro plant.
140
All Upper Connecticut River valley hydro power is
657 MW, max.
TransCanada Connecticut River stations
http//www.transcanada.com/pdf/power/ConnectDeerpl
ant.pdf
141
Hydro Quebec developed 16 GW of power at James
Bay for 20B.
James Bay generates 3X the power of Niagara
Falls. 450,000 volt DC, 2 GW, 1,480 km power
line to Boston area. DC to lower losses and
because US AC system not synchd. Hydro Quebec
generates 35 GW, is worlds largest
producer. Hydro Quebec exports 3.9 of volume,
for 27 of net income.
142
Vermonts energy crisis can not be met with local
hydro power.
Vermont Dept Natural Resources estimates new
hydro power potential is 25 MW. Assume capacity
factor of 30. New hydro potential is 25 MW x
30 x 24 x 365 66 GWH.
http//www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/st_profil
es/vermont.html
143
Vermonts energy crisis can not be met with local
wind power, either.
If all functioning, 147 MW x 30 x 24 x 365
386 GWH
http//www.nrgsystems.com/facts/vermont.php
144
Homework How many cows would meet Vermonts 2006
9,589 GWH energy need?
http//www.cvps.com/cowpower/How20It20Works.html
145
Hydro, wind, and solar power are intermittent,
needing supplements.
Reliable sources must be on standby. Coal, oil,
natural gas, nuclear Fixed costs continue. Fuel
costs reduced. GHG, air pollution
abated. Energy might be stored. Batteries Compr
essed air Thermal mass (hot water..) Kinetic
(flywheel..) Gravity (pumped hydro..) Synthetic
fuel (H2, CH3OH..)
http//www.nrgsystems.com/facts/vermont.php
146
Renewable energy wrecks the environment, says one
scientist.
Flooding the entire province of Ontario behind a
60 m dam would provide 80 of the power of
Canadas existing nuclear electric
plants. Displacing a single nuclear power plant
with biomass would require 1,000 square miles of
prime Iowa farm land. Wind farms on 300 square
miles of land could displace a 1 GW nuclear
plant. 60 square miles of photovoltaic cells
could generate 1 GW. Powering New York City
would require a wind farm the size of Connecticut.

• Jesse E. Ausubel
• Director, Program for the Human Environment,
  Rockefeller University.
• Program Director, Alfred P Sloan Foundation.
• Former Director of Studies, Carnegie Commission
  on Science, Technology, and Government.

http//phe.rockefeller.edu/jesse/index.html
147
Jean Ziegler, UN Special Rapporteur for Right for
Food, condemns biofuels.
laid out 60 percent to 90 percent. Its a
question of survival. He blamed the crisis on
the indifference of the rulers of the world,
and singled out the US support of bio-fuels for
particularly harsh criticism. When a bio-fuel
policy is launched in the United States, thanks
to subsidies of 6 billion of bio-fuels that
drains corn from the market, the foundation is
laid for a crime against humanity to satisfy
ones own thirst for fuel, Ziegler charged.
This is an imminent massacre, Ziegler warned.
He said that while families in the well-off West
spent only about 10 percent to 20 percent of
their budgets on food, those in the poorest
countries
http//www.dispatch.co.za/article.aspx?id192811
148
Nuclear power was kindest to the human
environment in 1969-1996.
Paul Scherrer Institut, November 1998, Severe
Accidents in the Energy Sector
htpp//gabe.web.psi.ch/pdfs/PSI_Report/ENSAD98.pdf

149
Rethinking Nuclear Power3. Environmental Choices

• End

Bob Hargraves, Hanover NH