Risk Assessment

1

• Risk Assessment
• Facts, Myths and Trends
• James Austin, Ph.D.
• 2008

2
The Need to Manage Risk

• Public Safety Reduce Recidivism Rates and
  Allows for Better Investments
• Increases Credibility with the Public and
  Legislature
• Reduces the potential for disproportionate use of
  incarceration by Gender, Race and Ethnicity
• Better use of public resources

3
The Key Decision Points

• 1. Initial Parole Eligibility Hearing
• a. Parole
• b. Continue (why and for how long)
• c. Serve All
• 2. Rehearing (more of the initial hearing)
• 3. Mandatory Parole
• 4. Imposition of Supervision Conditions
• 5. Parole Revocation
• a. Detain or Release
• b. Period of Incarceration

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Sources

• Statistics and Trends -- Bureau of Justice
  Statistics, http//www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pubalp2.
  htmPrisoners
• Research -- National Institute of Justice,
  http//www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij/
• Technical Assistance National Institute of
  Corrections
• Program Money and TA Bureau of Justice
  Assistance, http//www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bja/

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Adult Correctional Populations 1980-2005
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Past and Current Projected Prisoner Population
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Key Concepts in The Prediction of Risk

• Variance
• Probabilities
• Independent Variables The Predictors
• 4. Dependent Variable What We Are Trying to
  Predict
• Static Predictors Things That Do Not Change
• 6. Dynamic Predictors Things That Do Change

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Variance in the Use of Imprisonment
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Variance in the Use of Probation and Parole
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Variance in Life Chances of Being Imprisoned in
USA1974-2001

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Variance in Key Criminal Justice Decision Points
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Variance in Average Sentences and Time ServedBy
Race 2002 Prison Releases
Source Bureau of Justice Statistics, National
Correctional Reporting Program 2002
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Variance in Crime Risk Factors by Race
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Crime and Welfare 1931-2003
7,000.0
16,000.0
14,000.0
6,000.0
12,000.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
4,000.0
Crime Rate
Welfare Recipients
8,000.0
3,000.0
6,000.0
2,000.0
4,000.0
1,000.0
2,000.0
0.0
0.0
Year
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More Key Concepts on Risk

• Measurement Error
• Triangulation (Multiple Sources)
• Public Records
• Interviews
• Questionnaires
• Observation
• Reliability
• Inter-Reliability (Do we all do it the same way)
• Intra-Reliability (Do I do it the same way)
• Validity
• Internal Validity (does it work in my place)
• External Validy (does it also work in other
  places)

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Still More Concepts

• An Instrument Can Be Reliable but Not Valid
• An Instrument Cannot Be Unreliable and Valid
• False Positives (should have recidivated but did
  not)
• False Negatives (should have not recidivated but
  did)
• Multi-collinearity (independent predictors)

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And More Concepts

• Clinical Judgments Alone Are In-Effective in
  Predicting Risk
• Statistical Models Are Effective In Predicting
  General Recidivism
• Statistical Models Are In-Effective in Predicting
  Rare Events
• Violent Crimes
• Career Criminals
• Sex Crimes
• The Problem of Low Base Rates

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Current State of Risk Assessment

• There is no superior or better risk assessment
  instrument or system
• There are commercial and public risk systems that
  can work
• The differences are in costs and staff skill
  requirements
• Few states have risk assessment systems that have
  been properly developed and implemented
• Lack of reliability and validity

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Some Basics About Criminal Behavior

• Criminal Behavior (Like Other Behavior) Is
  Learned
• Criminal Careers Have Starting And Ending Points
• Most Criminal Behavior is Episodic in Nature
• Very Few Criminals Are Career Criminals
• Places and Other People Impact Behavior

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What About Treatment?

• Good treatment in prison is rare
• 2. The market share problem
• 3. Most one can expect is 10 reduction in the
  expected recidivism rate
• Education and vocational training should be
  priorities
• 5. Wrong Use of Treatment Increases Risk

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Percent of Arrests Attributed to Released
Prisoners

• Type of arrests N
• Total Arrests in Seven States 1994-97 2,994,868
  100
• Arrests of Prison Releases 1994-97
  140,534 5
• Percent that are Violent Crimes 36,000 1

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1983 and 1994 Recidivism Rates
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Method of Release and Re-Arrest
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Success on Parole and Probation 1995-2003
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Length and Stay and Recidivism - Louisiana

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The Impact of Treatment by Risk Level
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Key Points About Offender Risk

• Prisoners are slowing down or ending their
  criminal activities
• Probation versus prison is slightly more
  effective
• Extending or reducing prison terms is not related
  to recidivism
• Extending or Reducing parole/probation
  supervision is not related to recidivism
• Prisoners who max out do better than those
  paroled
• Small Percent (5-10) of all crimes are
  committed to persons released from prison.
• Very small of released prisoners are
  re-arrested for murder or rape (less than 1) and
  very small of released murders or rapists are
  re-arrested for these crimes (under 2).
• Treatment for Low Risk Persons Increases
  Recidivism while treatment for high risk persons
  reduces recidivism

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Factors that Predict

• Static Factors
• Age at First Arrest
• Gender
• Prior Supervision Failures (recent)
• Mental Health Problems
• Crimes of Economic Gain
• Substance Abuse History
• Prior Gang/Peer Associations

• Dynamic Factors
• Current Age
• Current Education Level
• Current Employment
• Marital/Family Status
• Gang/Peers Associations
• Residency
• Treatment (Good versus Bad)
• Institutional Conduct

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Vermont Risk Level Results
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Kentucky Parole Board Risk Assessment Decision
by Risk
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Kentucky Parole Board Risk Assessment Decision
by Offense Severity
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Texas Expected Levels of Parole Grants
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Texas FY 06 Actual Versus Expected Grant Rates
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Dos and Donts

• Must Be Tested On the Your Correctional
  Population
• Must Conduct Objective and Independent
  Inter-Reliability and Validity Tests
• Must Allow for Dynamic and Static Factors that
  Have Been Well Accepted and Tested in a Number of
  Jurisdictions
• Must Be Compatible With the Staffs Skill Level
• Must Be an Opportunity to Depart from Scored Risk
  Levels Based on a System of Structured Clinical
  Judgments
• Must Have Face Validity with Staff, Offenders
  and Policy Makers

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Strategic Steps for Building Risk Assessment
Instrument
Agree on the Need for Risk Assessment
Conduct Recidivism Study of Released Prisoners
Build Risk Instrument Based on Recidivism
Conduct Reliability Study
Finalize Risk Instrument
Implement/Monitor
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Summary Points

• You cannot afford not to use risk assessment in
  release and supervision decisions
• Not using risk assessment worsens public safety
• Key Areas of Concern
• Imposition of treatment and conditions to low
  risk prisoners
• Excessive periods of supervision (more than 12
  months)
• Re-incarceration for non-criminal behavior or
  misdemeanor crimes
• Excessive periods of confinement the
  diminishing return problem
• The release decision
• The revocation decision
• The lack of information and its contribution to
  mythology
• DUIs
• Sex Offenders
• Public safety
• Gender and Racial Bias