WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Summary

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WDTB Winter Wx WorkshopSummary
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Why Train on Winter Wx?

• Significant hazard to life and property
• Avg. of 70-80 deaths / year (excluding
  traffic-related incidents)
• 1 to 2 Billion / year
• Very difficult to forecast mesoscale events,
  pinpoint locations/timing/precip type of many
  large scale events due to complex nature of
  phenomena

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Performance Measures

• 15 hr Lead Time on Warnings
• 90 POD
• 27 FAR
• Focus on science and societal impacts to improve
  services

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New Policy DirectivesNWSI 10-513

• Outlooks
• gt30 chance of event in next 3-5 days
• Watches
• gt50 chance of event in next 12-48 hrs
• Warnings
• 80 chance of event exceeding local criteria in
  next 36 hrs
• Mention specific amounts

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New Directives

• Get out of comfort zone
• Learn from failure
• Develop local criteria that meets user needs
• Determine optimal lead times for decision makers

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Winter Weather Training
The PDS web page (http//www.wdtb.noaa.gov/worksho
p/WinterWx/indexpds.html) has training on all
workshop topics plus more
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User Needs(PCU1)

• Assess customer requirements and societal impacts
  related to our winter weather products and
  services
• Optimize lead times to help decision makers
• Eastern Region Best Practices Report
• See handout and user needs presentation

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Climatology(PCU 2)

• Rarity of storms (use Grumms web site)
• http//www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Prese
  ntations/sigwxau02-new.ppt
• Recognize Arctic Outbreak Patterns
• See Brad Bramers presentation

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Conceptual Models (PCU 3 4)

• Important to give physical basis for forecast
  adjustments
• Subjective and Objective forecaster techniques

Synoptic NWP
Mesoscale Adjustments
IFPS grids
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NWP (PCU 2-4)

• Continues to improve with better resolution pcpn
  schemes
• Know changes to GFS, Eta, RUC-20, LAPS, SREF
  output
• METED web site http//meted.ucar.edu/topics_nwp.ph
  p

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HPC Guidance (PCU 2 to 4 )

• Use it!
• Know terms
• Coordinate with HPC
• http//www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Prese
  ntations/winterwx2.shw
• National Experiment continues this season

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Ensembles (PCU 2-3)

• Use them in objective forecast process to
  recognize consistencies or uncertainties in model
  output
• Not always right!
• http//wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/SREF.html

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Synoptic Assessment(PCU 3)

• QG forcing and Fn
• http//www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Prese
  ntations/SCHULTZ_.PPT
• Ingredients method (4-panel method of diagnosis)
• http//cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/visit/ingredients.
  html

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Precipitation Type Forecasting(PCU 3-4)

• Microphysics (top down approach)
• Know strengths and limitations of various
  precipitation type techniques / algorithms (eg,
  Ramer, Bourgouin, Baldwin, etc)
• Use BUFKIT (dendritic growth zone, pcpn type)
• http//wdtb.noaa.gov/resources/projects/BUFKIT/ind
  ex.html
• http//www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Prese
  ntations/ptype_wdtb_day3_aug2002.shw
• Complete exercise form using BUFKIT

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Precip Type Fcstg Methodologybeyond 72 hours
(PCU 3)

• Use pattern recognition and assess thickness
  values

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Precip Type Fcstg Methodology24 to 72 hours (PCU
3)

• Use most consistent model to target potential
• Top down approach
• Ice 12C
• Identify range of possibilities

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Precip Type Fcstg Methodologywithin 24 hours of
expected event(PCU 4)

• Still use top down approach with higher
  resolution models but begin to incorporate more
  remotely sensed data to modify model output

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Mesoscale Analysis /Real-time(PCU 4 5)

• Banding potential (location of Fn)
• SPC meso guidance
• Use satellite trends for timing of features,
  forcing mechanisms, tstms can warm sfc T
• Radar orientations/ echo circles/bright band
• Use Spotters
• http//www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Prese
  ntations/frontogenesis_talk_020809.ppt

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Topo forcing (PCU 4)

• Know basics of mountain flow
• COMET web site
• http//meted.ucar.edu/mesoprim/flowtopo/index.htm
• Improved grid spacing can help

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Use of Mesoscale Models(PCU 4)

• Goal is to improve knowledge of the forecast
  process and use of mesoscale models
• Big Bang for Buck
• Can help forecasters determine local responses to
  various weather regimes
• If you capture the forcing, you can capture the
  response
• See Bob Roz.s LAM considerations (domain size,
  time, resolution, phenom of interest)

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Effective Communication(PCU 6)

• Timing is everything
• Make sure our products tell the whole story
• Snow accum not enough
• Societal impacts should be coordinated prior to
  the season

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IFPS Applications

• Precipitation type algorithm

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ScenarioLessons Learned

• Coordination with HPC and adjacent WFOs helped
  in the decision-making process
• SREF ensembles helped in the forecast process
• 4-panels of ingredients, 2-D Fn helpful,
  model soundings (using BUFKIT) great for p-type
  forecasting (WS Eta)
• satellite trends helpful in snowfall rates and
  amounts

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Making Training Stick Like Glue

• Plan
• Research
• Inform and communicate expectations
• Objectively Observe
• Role Model
• Inspire, instill, internalize
• Test techniques
• Yes attitude

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Where do you go from here?

• All presentations will be on WDTB web site
  (wdtb.noaa.gov)
• Make training stick by being an example
• Use the PDS on winter weather
• Youll be hearing from us after this winter to
  see how techniques training were applied

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Summary