Threat Assessment Briefing

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Threat Assessment Briefing

• Major David L Rogers
• USAF (Ret)

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DISCLAIMER

• This briefing is my opinion and may or may not
  reflect those of the government, this school, the
  Air Force or Air Force JROTC.
  
• All information was obtained from OPEN sources.
• This will cover what I believe to be the top 5
  core internal and external threats and will be
  general in nature.

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What Are the Sources of US Strengths?
PEOPLE
MILTARY
ECONOMY
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What Is A Threat?

• Threat potential activity or actions which could
  result in the harm or destruction of a person, an
  organization or a nation.
  
• Why is it important to understand and study
  threats?
  
• You have to understand what are problems and what
  are symptoms.
  
• Cant solve problems unless you know what they
  are AND what they are attacking.
  
• YOUR GENERATION WILL HAVE TO SOLVE THE PROBLEMS.

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Two Types of Threats

• Internal (Domestic) Threats those actions or
  activities that originate inside the borders or
  control of the United States
  
• External (International) Threats those actions
  or activities that originate outside the borders
  or control of the United States

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Internal Threat 1

• THE BREAK-UP OF THE TRADITIONAL AMERICAN FAMILY
• Divorce rate 8 in 1960
• 43-52 today
• Single parent families
• 20 today
• Domestic Violence
• 25 of all women will experience moderate to
  severe abuse at the hands of a boyfriend or
  husbandMOST BETWEEN THE AGES OF 16 and 24

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Why is the Traditional Family Important?

• Simply put family is where we get our ethics and
  values
  
• Break American familiesbreak American Values
• Disillusioned Youth
• ResultsSymptoms
• Rising crime rates IN ALL AREAS
• Teen drug/alcohol, pregnancy, and STD rates
  particularly effected
  
• Decline in education
• Rise in ethics violations in life and business
• Core values left to be taught elsewhere
• Friends, entertainment industry, school,
  ??????bad substitutes for family
  
• We now are forced to treat SYMPTOMShow do we
  restore families?

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Internal Threat 2

• Political Crisis Increasing Polarization of
  Government and Society
  
• DemocratRepublican being replaced/accentuated
  by liberal and conservative divisions
  
• Relatively even split in societypress has coined
  BlueRed States
  
• SYMPTOMS
• Elections contested in court
• Congress paralyzed over issues such as Supreme
  Court nominees
  
• Issues such as separation of church and state,
  abortion, and gay rights shape elections as
  opposed to economic and foreign policy
  
• Iraq is adding to fracture
• Congress taking up issues like drug use in
  baseballonly bi-partisan issue left

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Why is this a threatwho cares?

• A house divided cannot stand!
• Bible as quoted by Abraham Lincoln
• Compromise becomes difficultlast time compromise
  failed, it ended in civil war.
  
• More immediate symptoms
• Budgets are either inflated so everyone gets what
  they want rather than everyone gives up
  somethingleads to economic crisis
  
• 50 million bridge to nowhere in Alaska
• Domestic policy is uncertainpeople get
  frustrated
  
• Foreign policy is unpredictablemakes the world
  nervous

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Internal Threat 3

• American Economy is sustaining critical
  challengesrecession/depression are
  possibilities
  
• Symptoms
• Budget deficit was 665 Billion in 2004the
  government spent more than it took in
  
• Trade deficit was 617 Billion in 2004the United
  States bought more goods from overseas than it
  sold
  
• Businesses are relocating outside the United
  States at greater rates than ever before
  
• United States is getting older social security
  is in threat of failing in this generation
  
• 45 workers for every retiree in 40, by 1950s it
  was 16 to 1, now it is 3 to 1 and in 2023 it is
  projected to be 2 to 1

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Why is this a problem?

• Americas strength is based on its people, its
  military and its economy
  
• If the economy fails, the US could fall into
  depression
  
• Starvation
• Widespread homelessness
• Could cause another worldwide crash
• Elderly potentially wont have a security net in
  less than 40 years
  
• Political polarization makes solving this problem
  difficult
  
• Democrats tend to favor raising taxes
• Republicans tend to favor attracting business
• Current solutions seem to indicate pork barrel
  compromises rather than cutting programs
  

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Internal Threat 4

• Energy Threat reliance on fossil fuels
• Americans are addicted to coal and oilboth are
  non-renewable resources
  
• Americans use nearly 20 million barrels of oil
  PER DAY25 of the worlds total supply
  
• US depends on foreign sources for 50 of its oil
• At the present rate of growth, current domestic
  sources of oil sources will be used within 40
  YEARS
  
• We will be totally dependent on foreign suppliers

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Why is this a problem?

• US economic power is totally reliant on resources
  THAT WILL RUN OUTthe question is not IF it is
  WHEN
  
• Total dependence on foreign oil would put the
  strength and survival of the US in the hands of
  oil producing countries
  
• Manyif not alldo not like the US

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Internal Threat 5

• PUBLIC HEALTH AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE CRISIS
• The United States is NOT prepared for disasters
  or outbreaks of disease
  
• Katrina!!!
• Bird flu is merely the latest example of disease
  spreading worldwide
  
• Mad cow syndrome and AIDS are WORLD problems
• Disease can occur naturally or through terrorism

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Why is this a problem?

• Katrina was a warning!
• International nature of travel makes disease more
  likely to spread AND BE DEADLY
  
• Recent study showed that the spread of small pox
  virus could infect as many as 12.1 million
  Americans beginning within two weeks of the
  introduction of the infection
• Natural disasters are expensiveoil supply,
  rebuilding, and unemployment
  
• Serious outbreak could cripple the US economy and
  government!

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Summary of Internal Threats

• American Family is in Danger
• Political ParalysisPolarization
• Economic Crisis on the Horizon
• Deficit spending/trade deficit
• Social Security
• Dependency on Oil
• Health Crisis and Natural Disaster

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EXTERNAL THREATS
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EXTERNAL THREAT 1

• INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM
• Problem Not Going Away
• Problem bi-partisansolutions may not be
• Symptomatic Problems
• Borders are porousmust be secured
• Ports are seriously under-secured
• International flights still have room for
  strengthening
  
• Dirty bombs (NBC) a possibility

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EXTERNAL THREAT 2

• Middle East Land of a million problems
• Begins with a clash of culture
• Highly unstable governments
• 83 of worlds oil supply located in areas
  hostile to US
  
• Syrian and Iran supporters of international
  terrorism
  
• Iran developing nuclear capability
• US involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq could
  extend out 5-7 more years
  
• Support for Israel an issue throughout region

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Why is this a problem?

• Large portion of oil supply is in an area hostile
  to the United States
  
• Area has ability to cripple US economy
• Area is greatest source for terrorism threats to
  the United States
  
• Failure to counter this threat could lead to
  deaths and unstable domestic environment

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EXTERNAL THREAT 3

• China
• Military spending increase has been exponential
  in the last decade
  
• At current rate of growth, China could pose a
  serious challenge to the US militarily in the
  next 25 years OR LESS (already does in some
  instances)
• Already possesses nuclear weapons and a large
  standing army
  
• Poses an economic challenge already
• Trade deficit in favor of China
• Jobs flowing to China
• Clash of cultureto include style of government

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Why is this a problem?

• Failure to deal with trade deficit and jobs
  losses could result in China taking over as world
  economic leader
  
• Failure to deal with the military build-up now
  could lead to another cold waronly this time
  with Chinalots of money spentnot to mention
  potential flare-ups
• NUCLEAR THREAT nuff said

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EXTERNAL THREAT 4

• NORTH KOREA
• Divided Korea always on the verge of war
• North Korea has built nuclear reactors
• Admitted to refining for weapons
• Enough material to build several bombs
• Missiles developed with range to reach at least
  Japan
  
• Japanese economy is tightly linked to the USits
  fall could lead to economic collapse of the US
  
• Missile technology will only improveparticularly
  with the help of ChinaUS will become a direct
  target

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EXTERNAL THREAT 5

• Russia largely forgotten, but still a nuclear
  power with cash flow problems
  
• Poor accountability of nuclear arsenalweapons
  are MISSING
  
• Could be in hands of hostile governments, mafia,
  or terrorists
  
• Russian government is selling both weapons and
  technology to highest bidders to obtain badly
  needed funds
  
• US could face NBC threats from any number of areas

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Summary

• Five Internal Threats
• Families in crisis
• Polarized politically
• Economic threats abounddeficits, trade
  imbalances
  
• Energy crisis coming
• Public Health/Natural Disaster
• Five External Threats
• Terrorism
• Middle East
• China
• North Korea
• Russia

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IMPACT

• In 40 years, the US will face the first BLUNT
  BLOW to the head (IF NOTHING IS DONE)
  
• Social Security will be in crisis
• The US will use all domestic oil
• China will be a co-superpower and threaten US
  dominance
  
• Complicating
• Will the US political machine and society be
  stalemated?
  
• Will trade imbalances and deficits take their
  toll?
  
• Will the US be at the mercy of Middle Eastern oil
  or will it find alternatives?

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EVEN IF WE SURVIVE

• After the 40-year hit, the US will still have to
  deal with the other problems
  
• Any of which could cause the country to fall
• Terrorism is a big unknown!
• How do you fix the family?
• If you dont crime will grow!
• Education will sufferimpact will leave a long
  legacy.

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The Bright Spots

• Problems can be fixedeven now
• US compromises in crisis
• We have overcome depressions
• Alternative fuels on the way
• We are learning from Katrina
• Current administration has
• Instituted a homeland security
• Is looking at terrorism comprehensively
• Has strategies for Middle East, Korea
• China is evolving toomore free
• Russia is stabilizing and cooperating

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The REAL Bright Spot

• YOU!!!
• Note I omitted family.
• Make sure you value and dont contribute to
  problems
  
• You can make choices economically
• You can conserve fuel
• You can be prepared
• You can vote and insist on good compromises

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• ITS UP TO YOU!
• YOUR GENERATION WILL HAVE TO FIX IT!
• WHAT ARE YOUR SOLUTIONS?

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ASSIGNMENT

• Break into four groups
• Pick one of the ten major threats to US security
• Discuss the threat
• Does it bother you? Why?
• WRITE three things do you think can be done to
  fix the problem?
  
• Will it solve the problem completely or
  partially? What percentage do you think will it
  fix? WRITE THIS NEXT TO YOUR SUGGESTIONS