Cattle Situation and Outlook February 2005

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Cattle Situation and OutlookFebruary 2005

• Tim Petry
• Livestock Economist

02-14-05
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Web Address

• www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu/aginfo/lsmkt/livestock.htm
• Click on Cattle Outlook, February 05

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Livestock Marketing Information Center Data
Source USDA/NASS
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Commercial Beef Production
Total Cattle Inventory
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data
Source USDA/NASS
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Livestock Marketing Information Center Data
Source USDA/NASS
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• The highest cattle prices usually occur during
  the accumulation (rebuilding) phase of the
  inventory cycle.
• When that occurs will depend on weather, but
  should be in the next several years.

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Where Has Cyclical Herd Rebuilding Started?
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CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERSJANUARY 1, 2004
TO JANUARY 1, 2005(1000 Head)
Alaska Hawaii US Total
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data
Source USDA/NASS
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CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERSJANUARY 1, 1996
TO JANUARY 1, 2005(1000 Head)
Alaska Hawaii US Total
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data
Source USDA/NASS
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Stockmens Livestock Exchange Dickinson, ND
This week 2958 Last week 2219
Year ago 3281 Compared to last Thursday feeder
steers and heifers sold 2.00 to 3.00 higher with
replacement type heifers bringing a 6.00 to 8.00
premium. steers made up 25 percent of the run
heifers 75 percent. Offerings over 600 lbs
totaled 88 percent. Next Thursday will be a
regular sale along with Holstein steers and
feeder cattle 1000 head expected.
Feeder Heifers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt
Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
50 571-582 580 103.00-103.25 103.24
56 633-647 640 99.75-104.00 101.99
141 650-698 668 93.00-99.50 96.12
50 678-699 693 99.00-103.00 99.76 Replacement
233 702-748 730 91.50-98.50 96.42
10 730 730 88.00 88.00 Fleshy
213 701-743 720 97.50-102.50 100.69 Replaceme
nt 99 750-776 759 87.00-90.00 87.96
133 770-793 779 95.00-97.50 96.07 Replacement
39 810-827 819 83.75-89.00 86.96
8 821 821 82.25 82.25 Fleshy
161 804-825 813 92.25-98.00 94.60 Replacement
32 853-881 856 85.00-89.00 88.49
5 943 943 82.00 82.00 Fleshy
13 905 905 86.75 86.75 Replacement
23 984 984 77.75 77.75 Fleshy
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Livestock Marketing Information Center Data
Source USDA/NASS
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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SJ_LS850 St. Joseph, MO
Fri Jan 28, 2005 USDA-MO Dept of Ag Market
News NATIONAL FEEDER STOCKER CATTLE
SUMMARY - WEEK ENDING 01/28/2005
RECEIPTS Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total Th
is Week 331,400 49,000 110,000 490,400 Last
Week 318,200 72,800 None 391,000 Last
Year 305,500 37,600 1,700 344,800 Compared
to last week, feeder steers and heifers over 650
lbs sold 1.00-4.00 lower with instances as much
as 6.00 lower. Stocker cattle and calves under
650 lbs traded steady to 3.00 higher with the
full advance most evident in the Southeastern
states. Demand was best for 5 weight weaned
calves and the weakest for feeders weighing over
800 lbs. Auction receipts were fairly heavy but
direct sales were slow as lower bids were
refused. Feedlot buyers
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SF_LS766 Sioux Falls, SD
Thu Feb 10, 2005 USDA-ND
Ag Market News Stockmens Livestock Exchange -
Dickinson, ND Feeder Cattle Weighted Average
Report for 2/10/05 Receipts 3199
Last week 2643
Year ago 2528 Compared to last Thursday
feeder steers and heifers under 600 lbs sold
steady with those over 600 lbs selling 1.00
lower. Steers made up 47 percent of the run
heifers 53 percent. Offerings over 600 lbs
totaled 78 percent. Next Thursday will be a
feeder cattle special featuring replacement
heifers 2000 to 3000 head expected. Feeder
Steer Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range
Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price 9
418 418 149.00
149.00 35 450-497 489
126.00-135.00 132.58 126 550-591
564 121.85-129.25 125.61
77 603-644 628 109.25-118.00
113.65 87 653-691 677
106.50-115.50 110.81 121 702-739
723 107.00-111.00 109.31
161 758-791 761 101.00-109.00
105.17 141 800-846 826
97.75-102.00 100.07 113 850-891
865 95.75-98.00 97.15
28 987 987 92.25
92.25 60 1014 1014
93.75 93.75
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What is an 800 lb. Steer Worth?/cwt
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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What Is Brewing For 2005?
Canadian Border
9-11
Japanese Border
Dock Strike
BSE False Positives
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Canadian Border Situation

• Since Aug 03, boneless beef from cattle under 30
  months
• New USDA-APHIS rule issued in Jan 05 (564 pages)
  would allow additional categories after Mar 7
• Bone-in beef from under 30 months
• Beef from cattle over 30 months
• Fed cattle under 30 months for slaughter
• Feeder cattle to be fed and slaughtered before 30
  months
• Not allowed
• Cattle over 30 months
• Stocker cattle (grass, winter wheat, non feedlot)
• Breeding cattle

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Live Cattle Restrictions

• Trucks must be sealed at border by USDA Vets
• Cattle unloaded only at packing plant or approved
  feedlot
• Cattle must have ear tag that can trace to origin
  
• Age and history must be verified
• A health certificate must include origin,
  destination, responsible parties, and tag numbers
• Feeder cattle
• Must be branded with C?N
• Can only go to ONE approved feedlot
• Must be slaughtered before 30 months
• Must go to packing plant as a lot

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Further Developments

• American Meat Institute (AMI) filed a lawsuit to
  allow live cattle over 30 months
• US Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) introduced a bill to
  delay border opening until export markets return
• R-Calf filed a lawsuit against the rule
• NCBA sent an investigative team to Canada and set
  policy at Feb 2-5 convention
• Other congressional and legal developments???
• Beef from under 30 months deleted from rule by
  USDA

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ID

• Premiums may occur this fall
• Export market (Japan 20 mo)
• Walmart
• McDonalds
• Keep calving records and consider ID