Eve Gruntfest ecguccs.edu

1
Advanced WAS IS Workshop Beyond Storm
Warnings A collaboration between stakeholders,
the National Weather Service the Hazardous
Weather Testbed

• Eve Gruntfest ecg_at_uccs.edu
• Norman, OK September 15,2008

2
Motivation

• Hazardous Weather Testbed developing next
  generation forecasting tools better ways to
  communicate what we know in more sophisticated
  ways
• WAS way developing with little interaction with
  folks outside the lab
• IS way bring in forecasters, emergency
  managers, private sector to assure more socially
  relevant new tools

3
Participants
Cross section of users - WAS ISers non WAS
ISers

• Forecasters representing a variety of
  geographic regions
• Emergency managers local federal agencies
  represented
• Private sector representatives moving in tandem
  with government
• partners
• Researchers geographers, anthropologist with
  relevant expertise
• Many National Weather Center folks from labs,
  grad students
• Others who want to see how this experiment
  develops - National
• Science Foundation, CASA (Collaborative
  Adaptive Sensing of the
• Atmosphere), NOAA research folks

4
What we know about warnings Public response
components

• Hear/receive
• Understand
• Believe
• Personalize
• Decide to act
• Respond

The warning process is complex
Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather
Research and Practice
5
A flash flood warning indicates a more serious
threat than a flash flood watch
92
8
n1031
6
I take flash flood warnings seriously
92
8
n1017
7
False alarm questions Realizing its difficult
to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings
even if there are more false alarms or close
calls
N 1047
8
Officials are too sensitive to the possibility of
flash flooding
N 1031
9

• Warning project findings
• Weather information requirements of each
• user community are highly specialized
• The weather research community has not focused
• on the individual needs of specific user
  communities

10

New culture change initiative since 2005
11
WASIS addresses two persistent issues

• I want to do work that integrates meteorology
  societal impacts BUT
• I dont know how
• I dont know anyone else who does this kind of
  work

12
Weather Society Integrated Studies
To change the weather enterprise so that social
science is integrated into meteorological
research practice in comprehensive sustained
ways
13
What is WASIS?

• 1. Building an interdisciplinary community of
  practitioners, researchers, stakeholders --
  from the grassroots up --who are dedicated to the
  integration of meteorology social science
• Mostly early career folks!

Capacity building - creating a community for
lifelong collaboration support
14
What is WASIS?

• Providing opportunity to learn examine ideas,
  methods, examples related to integrated
  weather-society work

• Tools GIS, surveys, qualitative methods
• Concepts initiating building relationships,
  many publics, end-to-end-to-end
• Topics risk communication, communicating
  uncertainty, vulnerability

15
The WASIS movement

• Originally envisioned as only 1 workshop
• 6 workshops so far
• Original 2-part Boulder WASIS (November 2005
  March 2006)
• Condensed 3-day Norman WASIS (April 2006)
• 2006 Summer WASIS (July 2006)
• Australia WASIS (January-February 2007)
• 2007 Summer WASIS (July 2007)
• Summer 2008 WASIS held August 8-15

Each workshop had a distinct character with
common mission - Grand total of 172 WASISers

16
THE CHANGE IS UNDERWAYRecognizing WASISers
talent research--this is just a small sample

• Rebecca Morss - National Center for Atmospheric
  Research Bulletin of the American Meteorological
  Society
• problem definition
• social science research agendas
• end-to-end-to-end process

17
End-to-End-to-End Researchers Decision-Makers
Private businesses
Public (e.g., homeowners)
Private land developers
Local government elected officials
Local government agencies (e.g., floodplain
management)
Private engineering consultants
State regional governments
Federal government
Professional associations
Researchers
Morss, R. E., Ralph, F. M., 2007 Use of
information by National Weather Service
forecasters and emergency manager during CALJET
and PACJET-2001 Weather and Forecasting 22 doi
10.1175/WAF1001.1, 539-555 Morss, R. E., 2005
Problem definition in atmospheric science public
policy The example of observing system design
for weather prediction Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society 86 181-191.
18

Lindsey Barnes - New conceptual model of false
alarms close calls

• Emphasis on social relevance rather than product
  performance --Provide what public needs/wants

Barnes L, Gruntfest E, Hayden M, Schultz D,
Benight C (2007) False Alarms and Close Calls A
Conceptual Model of Warning Accuracy. Weather and
Forecasting 22, 1140-1147
19
Public private nonprofit collaborations to
improve all elements of weather enterprise

• with emphases on
• Better communication
• More geographic specificity
• Reduced confusion
• Partnership opportunities

Melissa Tuttle Carr- The Weather Channel
Kevin Barjenbruch- WCM Salt Lake
20
Considering social impacts in forecasts

• Types of questions to appreciate
• Who will be impacted?
• Are people awake/sleeping/ driving/coaching,
  getting married?
• What has happened up to this point?
• Have there already been fatalities?
• What are the TV stations saying?
• Have earlier storms been missed ?

Craig Schmidt, Division Chief, Western
Region Committed to Integrating
societal Impacts into National Weather
Service
21
Isabelle Ruin - National Center for Atmospheric
Research Post- doc Human exposure during flash
flood -- New time/space analysis
22
New attention to weather vulnerability
Developing a cold warning system for livestock
Tanja Fransen National Weather Service, Glasgow,
MT
23
Karen Pennesi Anthropologist - U of Western
Ontario - Public perceptions of rain prophets
the Federal Weather Service in Brazil
Predictions based on observations of insects,
animals, birds, plants, winds, stars, clouds,
other natural phenomena
Pennesi K (2007) Improving Forecast
Communication Linguistic and Cultural
Considerations. Bulletin American Meteorological
Society, 88, 7, 1033-1044
24
Randy Peppler Leading efforts at U of Oklahoma
in cultural studies of weather

• Geography dissertation topic
• Native American perceptions of weather
  information how their stories change with
  migrations to different environments

Interdisciplinary doctoral committees
25
SSWIM TeamUniversity of Oklahoma
Sponsored by University of Oklahoma National
Oceanic Atmospheric Administration
_at_ The National Weather Center
26
Funding 50 NOAA 50 U of Oklahoma Three
main goals

• 1. To recognize develop the existing social
  science activities at the National Weather Center
• 2. To build a strong integrated community of
  practitioners, researchers, others to
  coordinate new projects proposals that weave
  social science into the fabric of the National
  Weather Center
• 3. To assess the viability interest in a new
  interdisciplinary Ph.D. program at the University
  of Oklahoma focused on the societal impacts of
  weather climate change
• Focus on the willing no one being dragged into
  these new projects

27
3 year effort - personnel

• Dr. Eve Gruntfest geographer with 30 years
  experience as social scientist working with
  meteorologists
• 2 Ph.D. students working on interdisciplinary
  degrees - Dedicated to integrating social science
  into National Weather Center
• 1 full time Post-doc - Poised to take leadership
  of integrated social science activities

28
Post doctoral scientistHeather Lazrus (moving
to Norman in January)

• Environmental anthropologist
• Extensive experience with NOAA Fisheries
  conducting interviews in Alaska Pacific
  Northwest
• How climate change new policies affecting
  livelihoods outlooks
• Dissertation research
• 10 months living on TUVALU - small island nation
  in South Pacific how are THEY dealing with sea
  level rise?

29
Kim Klockow

• Interdisciplinary Ph.D. - Meteorology
  Economics, Finance
• Masters work in Professional Meteorology at OU
• Interviewing farmers about how they value weather
  information from the Oklahoma mesonet
• Ph.D. to focus on new ways to verify warnings

30
Gina Eosco

• Pursuing Ph.D. in risk communication at OU
• Five years experience working at American
  Meteorological Society
• Masters work at Cornell University
• Interviewing forecasters government officials
  about their interpretations, objectives,
  desired behavioral responses to the cone of
  uncertainty, a hurricane track graphic tool

31
Workshop objectives

• 1. Introduce new technologies directions to a
  diverse spectrum of potential future
  collaborators.
• 2. Define address the broad spectrum of
  end-user needs from the super-user to diverse
  segments of the general public - focus on
  emergency managers, hospitals individuals with
  higher vulnerability as well as private industry
• 3. Clarify suggest new ways to communicate
  uncertainty storm information - focus on
  graphic representations of storm timelines
  uncertainty and communication through new
  emerging technologies

32
Workshop objectives

• 4.Define new measures of success to assess
  service. Change concepts of storm verification
  including close calls false alarms
• 5.Provide suggestions for the evolution of the
  Experimental Warning Program design for spring
  experiments with stakeholders goals
• 6.Develop ideas for new ways to change the
  culture within all levels of the National Weather
  Service to facilitate operational implementation
• 7.Create visibility consider possible future
  funding opportunities for Hazardous Weather
  Testbed activities stakeholder interactions
  that help move The National Weather Service from
  WAS to IS

33
Ground rules

• Advanced WAS IS is not like any other workshop
• NO Acronyms except NOAA, HWT WAS IS!
• Meet mingle to foster new collaborations
  projects
• Best uses of our short time together
• Breaks meals
• Keep everyone engaged small groups
• Minimized glazed eyeballs
• Imagine yourself in other peoples shoes
• Everyones opinion matters

34
Challenges of this bold experiment

• We speak different languages
• Please remember not everyone is a meteorologist
• What are appropriate thresholds for risks, for
  geographic specificity, how to show?
• WAS IS framework is not common to all of us
• Technically difficult
• Using the scenario Trade offs of anchoring this
  way - Hazardous Weather Testbed other hazards
• Inventing innovative ways to communicate
  uncertainty
• Even forecasters need more than l week to
  understand what we are going to tackle in 2.5
  days

35
Challenges of this bold experiment

• By tomorrow afternoon Wednesday morning we
  will be evaluating options for moving forward
• More workshops with other Weather Center
  Laboratories, Groups?
• More partners
• Other big ideas!
• Sustainable brain trust?

36
WAS IS means changing from WAS to IS
Becomes WAS social scientist!
WAS physical scientist goes to WAS IS workshop
Moving from WAS to ISis not an instant
transition! WASISers realize the joys of
CONNECTING WITH STAKEHOLDERS
37

• Greg Mortensons Three Cups of Tea analogy One
  Man's Mission to Promote Peace . . . One School
  at a Time (Best selling book about building
  schools in Afghanistan Pakistan)
• 1st cup- stranger
• 2nd cup- honored guest
• 3rd cup- youre part of family takes years
• With 172 official WASISers hundreds of other
  like-minded hard-workers
• Social science policy are having our 2nd cup of
  tea with meteorology
• Were not family yet but were no longer
  strangers

Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather
Research and Practice
38
The move from WAS to IS occurs when stovepipes
are not the model - Bring social science into
programs research efforts in sustainable ways
Local Communities
National Weather Service
Private forecasters
Urban Drainage Districts
Universities
Broadcast meteorologists
Research Centers
Meteorologists, Hydrologists
Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather
Research and Practice
39

• What did the most influential players look like
  in meteorology prior to WASIS SSWIM

Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather
Research and Practice
40
(No Transcript)
41
WAS ISers are NOT the same people with new
technologies!
42
WASISers SSWIMers are changing the culture to
integrate societal impacts in sustainable ways
43

Thanks to Steve Koch, Lynn Maximuk, Mike
Hudson from NOAA Central Regional Team for
funding this workshop
Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather
Research and Practice
44
Thanks to all of you for coming participating
in this AMAZING opportunity LETS GET our
Advanced WAS IS BREWING! We have BIG work
to do