Researching Effectively

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• Researching Effectively
• 12th June 2009
• Community Strategies
• A measure of the future ,
• a sense of proportion,
• ( a connection with communities)
• Steve Williams, WLGA
• steve.williams_at_wlga.gov.uk

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• Discussions in authorities Dec 07 March 08

• Focus on Sustainable Development, Community
  Strategies WPI
• Desire to learn from build on 1st round of
  community strategies
• visions themes an important starting point,
  but
• legitimacy (from vision down) must be built and
  continually ensured, and
• must be more strongly grounded in the real world
  and local circumstances
• current and predicted
• with better, more systematic, use of evidence to
  focus prioritise
• recognising and addressing long-term threats, as
  well as immediate opportunities
• Links to WPI processes business planning
  cycles not always clear /or well understood
• Frustration with WPI risk management
• Predominantly organisation-centric (though good
  practice is increasingly well-established within
  mainstream business planning management)
• Sustainability increasingly embedded within
  strategy, but limited evidence-based
  prioritisation and marginal at best within WPI
  risk management despite apparent high risks

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• Community-centred strategic risk management

• Clear definitions of all dimensions of
  well-being connecting to the direct
  experience of citizens and communities (current
  future) legitimised through engagement
  deliberation.
• Systematic analysis of contexts social,
  economic, environmental ecologies (current
  predicted / local to global)
• Exploration of scenarios possibilities
  leading to identification of potential
• threats to well-being, opportunities for
  enhancing it obstacles - at the local level
• Systematic assessment of likelihood impact
• How real is the threat / opportunity /
  constraint? (evidence-based challenge
• judgement of probabilities)
• How serious are the potential impacts what do
  we stand to loose or gain
• how much do we care? (evidence value-based
  challenge judgement)
• What can / could / should we do about it, and
  is it worth the effort?
• and so
• is it working?

Risk Identification
Risk Assessment
Prioritisation
Action planning
Monitoring evaluation
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• Thresholds curve turning

• Factors / characteristics / trends in the
  social, economic and environmental contexts on
• which the well-being of citizens local
  communities depends.
• Pervasive threats - multiple, widespread
  impacts
• ? climate change obesity - relative
  deprivation - peak oil - low levels of basic
  skills social
• exclusion disaffection alcohol abuse -
  inflation
• Beyond certain levels the risks can be
  predicted/anticipated to become unacceptably
  severe
• Even though we may not be able to say precisely
  where these levels are we may be pretty
• clear that we are currently outside them
  (Sound science? Staring us in the face?)
• Are we on the right track?
• NO what are the key contributory factors how
  can we turn the curve?
• YES are we moving fast enough?
• Action on both likelihood impact / causes
  symptoms /
• widespread
  localised / short-term long-term

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• Manifestations materiality
• The local picture

• Co-production risks and the need for
  connection resonance
• Likelihood Impact factors / causes
  symptoms
• How do they manifest themselves in local
  communities - citizens
• experiences perceptions (what do people see
  around here,
• day to day)?
• How material are they to local expectations,
  aspirations, hopes (how,
• and how much, do they matter to people)?
• and so solutions capacity
• What do citizens/communities think would make
  the differences that
• would make a difference?
• What are they willing / keen / able to
  contribute?
• What more do they need to make it happen?

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• tall order?

• a measure of the future
• a sense of proportion
• but also
• connection with (local/very local) communities
• resonance with citizen experience
  perceptions - impacts,
• causes contributions close to home
• leading into informed engagement in
  decision-making
• insight into solutions, as
  well as problems

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• Turning the Curve (1)

• Identify define the desired outcome
• Identify one or more key indicators - i.e.
  measures that help quantify the
• achievement of an outcome or provide a good
  proxy for this
• Establish the baseline in the shape of
  time-series data that shows
• direction speed of travel - i.e. map the
  curve
• Make a forecast for the future on the basis of
  the curve (trajectory)
• Make a judgement about whether the forecasted
  values are acceptable - or
• not.
• This may involve establishing a goal line,
  target, or threshold but be
• fair realistic anything better than
  baseline counts as progress.

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• Turning the Curve (2)

• Explore the story behind the baseline drawing
  on all available
• intelligence research sources (including
  community intelligence).
• - What causes/forces/factors appear to be
  influencing it (absolute values
• the shape of the curve)?
• - Engagement with local communities can play a
  hugely influential part
• in this step (see Portsmouth Childrens
  Trust Development Team toolkit)
• Explore the questions What works?, What
  would it take to make it OK
• - again drawing on all research
  intelligence sources, especially
• community intelligence
• What could work to do better? What can
  different partners
• contribute (including, especially,
  communities themselves)?
• including no cost / low cost ideas
  (think imaginatively about the
• resources)

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• Turning the Curve (3)

• Assess the ideas in terms of feasibility,
  likelihood of success
• significance of potential impacts.
• Follow the buts and ifs - identify the
  and sos
• Develop action plans / projects / programmes
• Track the indicator(s) and evaluate effects in
  terms of the data curve
• whatever goaline, targets or
  thresholds have been established
• Identify follow emergent buts ifs that
  have

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• Making effective, sustainable decisions

Generally speaking, good decisions are well-made
before they are taken
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• but then again
• all outcomes have consequences all systems
  have constraints

Risk assessment (2)
Prioritisation Action Planning Monitoring
evaluation
Risk identification (loop 2)
Ecological impacts Externalities opportunity
costs in the social, economic environmental
contexts of well-being.

• Systemic constraints
• Co-production engagement risks
• Capacity culture etc. in communities
• Capacity, leadership performance factors
• in community leadership service delivery
• - organisations partnerships