Global Security Issues for Strategic Leaders

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Global Security Issues for Strategic Leaders

• 4 Oct 2008

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Agenda

• Globalization
• Transnational Security Issues
• Failing and Failed States
• Global Hotspots

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National Purpose (Enduring Beliefs, Ethics and
Values)
Global Environment (Forces Trends) Competing V
alues Economic Conditions Globalization Inform
ation Revolution International Law Internation
al Organizations Non-State Actors Threats Co
nventional and Transnational WMD

• Domestic
• Environment
• (Forces Trends)
• Federal system of government
• Bureaucracy
• Economic conditions
• Social needs
• Electoral politics
• The media
• Public opinion
• National style, self-image

National Interests
Strategic Vision
National Policy
National Objectives (Ends)
Strategic Concepts (Ways)
National Power (Means)
Feasibility, Suitability, Acceptability
Risk Assessment
Strategy
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Global Security Focus

• 1945 1991
• Cold War rivalry and relative stability
• International order of sovereign states and
  international organizations
• 1991 2001 Post Cold War
• Missing a strategic focus
• Entropy in the international order
• 2001 present
• Global War on Terror and preoccupation with
  ungoverned spaces and Iraq
• Post WWII institutions unsuited to current
  international challenges

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Globalization
Increasing global connectivity, integration and
interdependence

• Transnational Actors
• Transnational Issues
• Eroding Sovereignty
• Institutional Gaps
• Positive Effects
• Negative Effects

Information, ideas, people, products and problems
can quickly cross national and regional boundaries
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(No Transcript)
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Globalizations Dark Side

• Drastic disruption of traditional societies
• Massive population explosion
• Urbanization
• Uneven wealth distribution
• Anti-system groups use transportation and
  communication linkages

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Global Security Issues

• TerrorismIslamic Radicalism
• WMD Proliferation
• Conflicts
• Great power rivalry
• Interstate confrontation
• Intrastate conflict
• Transnational Crime
• Drug Trafficking
• Weapons Proliferation

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• Globalization has exposed us to new challenges
• Public health challenges like pandemics
  (HIV/AIDS, avian influenza) that recognize no
  borders.
• Illicit trade, whether in drugs, human beings, or
  sex, that exploits the modern eras greater ease
  of transport and exchange.
• Environmental destruction, whether caused by
  human behavior or cataclysmic mega-disasters such
  as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, or tsunamis.

The National Security Strategy of the United
States of America, March 2006
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Unconventional Global Security Issues

• Demography
• Climate Change
• Disease
• Financial Instability
• Corruption
• Migration
• Poverty
• Resource scarcity
• Food
• Water
• Energy

- Transnational - Regional - Complex -
Interconnected - Uncertain - Unpredictable
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• 800 million are starving
• One billion lack clean drinking water
• Two billion lack sanitation
• Two million are dying from AIDS each year
• 175 million international migrants
• Nearly 1 billion illiterate adults
• Several billion affected by global warming

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• Climate change can act as a threat multiplier
  for instability in some of the most volatile
  regions of the world, and it presents significant
  national security challenges for the United
  States.
• - National Security and the Threat of Climate
  Change, April 2007

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Climate Change

• Effects
• Extreme weather
• Drought
• Flooding
• Sea level rises
• Retreating Glaciers
• Habitat Shifts
• Increased disease

Weak/Failing State

• Results
• Food production declines
• Diseases increase
• Clean water becomes scarce
• Migration in search of resources

• Internal conflict and spillover
• Violent Religious Extremism
• Movement away from liberal democracy
• Radical ideologies
• Humanitarian crisis

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• America is now threatened less by conquering
  states than we are by failing ones.
• 2002 National Security Strategy
• of the United States

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Failed/Failing State A Definition
When state structures lack political will and/or
capacity to provide the basic functions needed
for poverty reduction, development and to
safeguard the security and human rights of their
populations When the state and civil society are
unable to engage in constructive interactions
leading to deficits in effectiveness, legitimacy
or both
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Failed / Failing and Recovering (Fragile) State

• Rampant corruption stymies domestic investment
  and growth
• Ungoverned, lawless regions where predation is
  normal
• The elite systematically exclude other groups,
  thus creating grievances
• Reliant on international actors to provide basic
  services

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• The recent past vividly demonstrated the
  consequences of failing adequately to address the
  dangers posed by insurgencies and failing states.
  Terrorist networks can find a sanctuary within
  the borders of a weak nation and strength within
  the chaos of social breakdown. A nuclear-armed
  state could collapse into chaos, and criminality.
  Lets be honest with ourselves. The most likely
  catastrophic threats to our homeland for
  example, an American city poisoned or reduced to
  rubble by a terrorist attack are more likely to
  emanate from failing states than from aggressor
  states.

Robert M. Gates, 29 September 2008
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So A State is Fragile So What?

• Fragile states are 15 times more prone to civil
  war than developed countries
• Violence is more extreme, lasts longer and
  frequently spills-over
• Overwhelming source of the worlds refugees and
  internally displaced persons
• Many fragile states are among the worlds worst
  abusers of human rights

Think about the consequences of the failure of a
nuclear armed state
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• Fragile states provide benefits to terrorist and
  criminal organizations such as
• safe havens
• conflict experience
• settings for training and indoctrination
• access to weapons and equipment
• financial resources
• staging grounds and transit zones
• targets for operations
• pools of recruits

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• "Weak and failing states serve as global pathways
  that facilitate the spread of pandemics, the
  movement of criminals and terrorists, and the
  proliferation of the world's most dangerous
  weapons."
• -Condoleezza Rice, 2006

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6. DRC 7. Afghanistan 8. Ivory Coast 9.
Pakistan 10. CAR
1. Somalia 2. Sudan 3. Zimbabwe 4. Chad 5.
Iraq
11. Guinea 12. Bangladesh 13. Burma 14.
Haiti 15. North Korea
16. Ethiopia 17. Uganda 18. Lebanon 19.
Nigeria 20. Sri Lanka
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Global Conflict
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GDP (PPP) per capita
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Adult (15-49) HIV Prevalence Rate (), 2006
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Life Expectancy
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Africa

• 26 of the worlds 30 poorest countries
• Many countries lack adequate governance
• Epicenter of the worlds most serious health
• pandemic HIV/AIDS.
• 7 of the top 10 countries at risk of collapse
  (Failed States Index)
• Somalia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Chad, Democratic
  Republic of Congo, Côte dIvoire, Central African
  Republic,
• Somalia failed state
• Sudan (Darfur)
• Zimbabwe
• Nigerian oil fields
• Kenya Dec 2007 contested election
• Impact of Chinas involvement

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The Americas

• Drugs, Gangs, Corruption, Poverty
• The Andean Ridge
• Drug producing region, (Venezuela, Colombia,
  Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia) a major source of
  cocaine and heroin, with lingering insurgencies,
  weak economies, and unstable democracies
• Central America, Caribbean and Mexico
• Drug Transit zone with gangs, violence and
  corruption
• Tri-border area of Argentina, Brazil, and
  Paraguay - contains a large ethnic Arab
  population and may be a haven for Al Qaeda fund
  raising cells as well as other Middle Eastern
  terrorist groups
• Politics Failure of Conservatives to solve
  problems of poverty was catalyst for a (re)turn
  to the left
• Populist leaders in Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador,
  and Nicaragua
• Cuba after Fidel?
• China has begun to court energy-rich
• Latin America

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Asia

• The Asian Century a shift in the global
• balance of power?
• Emerging Superpowers China and India
• Nuclear North Korea
• Taiwan Security
• Afghanistan Im not convinced were
• winning in Afghanistan, Im convinced
• we can.
• Elections in 2009
• Pakistan The perfect storm weak government,
  nuclear weapons, radical Islamic extremists and
  terrorists (Al Qaeda), sectarian conflict,
  Taliban insurgents, a vast ungoverned tribal
  region, Kashmir
• Sri Lanka

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Europe

• Old Europe or Venus?
• Anti-Americanism
• NATO in Afghanistan
• European Union has it lost its way?
• Immigration challenges
• Economically stagnant

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Middle East

• Iran the next nuclear power?
• Elections in 2009
• Arab-Israeli conflict two state solution?
• Iraq
• Radical Islamic extremism the transcendent
  challenge of the 21st century?
• Sectarian conflict

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Russia-Eurasia

• Retreat from democracy
• Energy windfall has fueled Russias economic
  revitalization
• Bully in its own neighborhood
• Georgia and beyond

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Global Security
Transnational Crime
Hostile Russia
Anti-Americanism
Homeland Security
Ethnic Conflict
WMD Proliferation
Energy Security
Terrorism
Corruption
Emerging China
Violent Islamism
Migration
Climate Change
Jihad
Genocide
Disease
Illicit Drug Trade
Failed Failing States
Illicit Arms Trade
Resource Scarcity
Illicit Human Trafficking
Youth Bulge
HIV/AIDS
Poverty
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• If we are to meet the myriad challenges around
  the world in the coming decades, this country
  must strengthen other important elements of
  national power, both institutionally and
  financially, and create the capability to
  integrate and apply all the elements of national
  power to problems and challenges abroad.
• Robert M. Gates, 26 November 2007
• Many of the problems we face from the threat
  of pandemic disease, to proliferation of weapons
  of mass destruction, to terrorism, to human
  trafficking, to natural disasters reach across
  borders. Effective multinational efforts are
  essential to solve these problems.
• The National Security Strategy of the United
  States of America, March 2006

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Publications
Financial Times NY Times Washington Post LA
Times BBC News Reuters CNN and or Fox
News Christian Science Monitor Council on Foreign
Relations
My Yahoo Bloglines Newsgator Pluck Windows Live
Alerts Netvibes Google
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Links and RSS feeds
Military Education Research Library Network (NDU)
http//merln.ndu.edu/ International Crisis Group
http//www.crisisgroup.org Center for Strategic
and International Studies http//www.csis.org Fore
ign Policy Research Institute http//www.fpri.org/
Brookings Institution U.S. State Department
http//www.state.gov/ CIA World Factbook
https//www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/ U.S
. Institute of Peace http//www.usip.org/ Rand
Corporation http//www.rand.org/ Progressive
Policy Institute http//www.ppionline.org/ The
Ohio State University's Program for International
and Homeland Security http//homelandsecurity.os
u.edu/ Latin America Network Information Center
http//lanic.utexas.edu/las.html Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace
http//www.carnegieendowment.org/topic/ The Fund
for Peace http//www.fundforpeace.org John F.
Kennedy School of Government http//www.ksg.harvar
d.edu/ International Institute for
Counterterrorism http//www.ict.org.il/
Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
http//www.ctc.usma.edu/default.asp Center for
Non-proliferation Studies http//cns.miis.edu/
Center for International Development at Harvard
University http//www.cid.harvard.edu/ Carnegie
Council http//www.cceia.org/ Hoover Institution
Stanford University http//www.hoover.org/
Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
http//www-igcc.ucsd.edu/
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Questions?
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• My contact information
• dean.stodter_at_us.army.mil
• [phone]
• Department of Distance Education, US Army War
  College

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Conflict Equation
Failing state
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Conflict Resources

• Factors that transform general grievance into
  conflict threat
• Leadership/authority
• Ideology/religious doctrine
• Organizational capacity
• Technical skills
• Military
• Informational
• Financing
• Access to weapons
• Safe havens local and international

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Triggers

• Situational vulnerabilities
• Temporal Windows of vulnerability
• Elections
• Passage of legislation
• Ruling in a court case
• Holidays
• Geographic Locations of vulnerability
• Contested regions
• Symbolic significance