Transition management: its origin,evolution and critique

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Transition managementits origin,evolution and
critique

• Jan Rotmans, Derk Loorbach, René Kemp
• Berlin, 19-09-2007

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NMP4 TM basic

• a long-term orientation as framework for
  short-term policies.
• dealing with uncertainties
• keep options open
• multi-domain and multi-actor approach
• focus on learning and innovation
• a specific role for government

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Energy Valley
Energytransition
NMP4
Drift
R3
Parkstad Limburg
OVAM
ICIS-Merit
DuWoBo
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Theoretical basis

• Governance approach
• Insights from
• Complexity theory dynamics of CAS
• Sociology social dynamics of change
• Governance patterns and practices of actors in
  networks
• Applied to transitions (in social CAS) and
  sustainable development
• Governance framework
• Multi-level meta-governance approach
• Set of systemic instruments

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Governance framework
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TM 2.0

• complex systems and transitions thinking as
  analytical basis
• long-term envisioning as framework for short-term
  action
• multiple futures, images and pathways
• multi-actor approaches
• taking multi-level dynamics into account
• creating protected (governance) niches for
  innovation
• developing strategies to deal with the regime
• focus on learning, experiment and innovation

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Misconception 1

• transition management is social engineering
• transition management is not about designing a
  route planner,
• using a Tom-Tom to achieve a fixed place of
  determination
• searching, learning, experimenting
• exploring new pathways in a reflexive manner

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Misconception 2

• management means command control
• transition management is not a form of planning
  to steer
• actors towards predefined, normative goals
• management here means creating space for
  frontrunners
• space for envisioning
• joint agenda
• financial incentives
• small-scale experiments
• empowering niche-players
• scaling up experiments

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Misconception 3

• socio-technical systems vs social systems
• transition management has not been applied to
  socio-technical
• systems but to societal sectors or regions
• no sailship but mobility sector no
  biotechnology but agriculture
• not exploring the role of technologies
• but exploring the role of individuals and
  institutions

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A typology of transitions
Energy transition
Revolutions
Agricultural intensification (60s)
Water transition
Health insurance
High aggregation
From coal to gas
Nuclear energy supply
Biomass energy supply
From sailboat to steamship
High Coordination
Teleological
Low aggregation
Low aggregation
Emergent
Low Coordination
Solar Energy supply
Biological Agriculture
Wind Energy supply
High aggregation
ICT/internet
Demographic Transition
Transition to Sustainable Agriculture
Economic Transition
Mobility
Biodiversity
Civilization
Globalisation

• Degree of purposiveness
• Degree of coordination
• Level of scale (high society / low subsystem of
  society)

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Shove Walker Caution 1

• who are managing a transition and on whose
  behalf?
• what are the everyday politics of transition
  management?
• transition managers do not really exist
• variety of transition players dealing with
• strategy, new coalitions, experiments,
  arrangements,
• bureaucratic matters, guidelines for
  practitioners
• tangled ball
• government mostly initiator but not necessarily

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Caution 2

• what is to be monitored and how frequently?
• how to identify early warning signals?
• different stages of a transition
• patterns and underlying mechanisms
• emergent properties of complex system
• thresholds versus tipping points
• reflexive monitoring
• shared problem perception
• sustainability visions
• social learning
• emerging networks
• behaviour of frontrunners

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Caution 3

• how to respond to unsustainable transitions?
• how to deal with the death of undesirable
  systems?
• persistent problems are symptoms of
  unsustainability
• persistent problems are deeply rooted in our
  society
• persistent problems require radical system
  innovations
• transition involves building up new structures
  and
• decay of existing structures

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Caution 4

• overly focus on technical systems and
  infrastructures,
• is a narrow slice of a wider social systemic
  change
• socio-technical case studies are different from
• transition management case studies
• co-evolution of institutional, cultural,
  demographic,
• economic, ecological and technological
  determinants
• transition management was developed as an answer
• to the narrow focus of the socio-technical
  approach

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Meadowcroft

• abstract level of social systems as angle for tm
• and precise orientation of those systems
• persistency of system requires integrated systems
• approach at the highest system level
• transition definition needs to be ambitious,
  challenging and concrete
• not from carbon emitting to carbon neutral
• divide overall theme in sub-themes
• acute political struggle partly recognized

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Meadowcroft

• transition management is not synonymous with
• governance for sustainable development
• political machinery around sustainable
  development
• Intergovernmental process UN
• transition management not part of this
• scope of transition management is limited
• but it can be applied to regions and cities

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Meadowcroft

• how to deal with lock-in and two-way options
• core of transition management is to experiment on
• a small-scale to reduce large-scale risk
• manage transition experiments
• deepening
• broadening
• scaling up
• transition experiments not around technology only
  

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Carbon capture and storage

• offers no permanent solution to the climate
  problem
• but complementary to energy conservation and
• sustainable energy policies
• Platform New Gas with working group clean
  fossils
• positive advice on supporting clean fossils
• four project types
• CO2 capture and storage with coal/gas-fired
  electricity
• storing CO2 from pure point sources such as
  industry
• CO2-storage of energy generation based on
  coal/biomass
• CO2-storage of natural gas extracted offshore
• first clean fossils experiment will start soon

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Carbon capture and storage

• SEC Zero Emission Power Plant
• NAM CO2-storage in a nearby natural gas field
• NUON CO2-separation and use in coal/biomass
  power plant
• Gaz de France CO2-storage in natural gas field
  in North sea
• provisional scenarios have been developed
• from the Netherlands as CO2-hub till clean
  fossils
• remain marginal

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International context

• is transition management typical Dutch?
• NO
• because the underlying principles are generic
• because it is ad odds with the Dutch polder
  model
• and the consensus democracy
• BUT
• Its application is context-specific and
  culturally bound

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Conclusions

• TM is not a megalomaniac attempt to remake
  society
• TM is a new governance model for interactions
• between market, state and civil society to work
• towards a sustainability transition
• perspective incrementalism for sustainability
• results are encouraging but no evidence that it
  works