PowerPointPrsentation

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TRANS-TOOLS meeting 3rd of May 2006, Seville
WP5 Implementation of Scenarios Passenger
Markus Kraft, Michael Krail, Eckhard Szimba,
Jochen Siegele Universitaet Karlsruhe
(TH) Institute for Economic Policy Research (IWW)
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Overview

• Reference and policy scenarios
• Flexible scenarios
• Extraction of socio-economic data

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Overview passenger transport approach
VACLAV
ASTRA
NUTS-III Trip Rates
Accessibility of zones
Trip Rates
Population
Population Segments
Passenger Trips
Level-of- Service
Car Fleet
Employment
Distribution
Modal Split
Assignment
GDP
ETIS O/D matrix
Input from CGEurope
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Implementation of reference scenario 1/2

• Trip generation
• Population calibrated to latest EUROSTAT
  baseline projections
• DG-TREN projections
• GDP calibrated to EUROSTAT data
• DG-TREN projections
• Employment, etc. calibrated to EUROSTAT
• Accessibilty changes due to new
• infrastructure

GDP
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Implementation of reference scenario 2/2

• Trip distribution
• Travel time and costs, value of time generalised
  time

• Modal split
• Travel time and costs, value of time generalised
  cost
• Implemented TEN infrastructure impacts
  generalised cost/time
• Occupancy rates per country
• Implementation of policy scenarios

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Implementation of flexible scenarios 1/2

• Trip generation
• Relative changes (up to a threshold ) of
  socioeconomic data until 2020 compared to
  reference scenario
• Population per country
• total population
• birth / death rates, migration
• children, people in working age, retired
• Employment / Unemployment per country
• Car-ownership / car fleet per country
• GDP per country

GDP
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Implementation of flexible scenarios 2/2
An example of dynamics in trip generation
ASTRA
Employment
Disposable Income
Car Purchase
Potential Output
GDP
Car-Ownership
Employment and GDP changes influence car-ownership
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Extraction of socio-economic data

• Population per country / NUTS3
• total population
• children, people in working age, retired
• Car-ownership / car-availability per country
• Employment per country
• GDP per country

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Additional slides
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ASTRA macroeconomic module (MAC)
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Overview passenger transport approach main
activities
VACLAV
ASTRA
NUTS-III Trip Rates
Accessibility of zones
Trip Rates
Population
Population Segments
Passenger Trips
Level-of- Service
Car Fleet
Employment
Distribution
Modal Split
Assignment
GDP
ETIS O/D matrix
Input from CGEurope
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Impacts of transport cost changes in ASTRA