Ho Chi Minh City Transport modeling in a rapid growth environment

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Ho Chi Minh City Transport modeling in a rapid
growth environment

• Johan Georget
• Transport Planner
• MVA Asia Limited
• johang_at_mva.co.th

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Presentation

• MVA Asia Limited
• Transport situation in Ho Chi Minh City
• HCMC Cube Voyager model overview
• Model details and capabilities
• Summary conclusions

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MVA Asia Limited
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MVA in Asia

• Established in Hong Kong in 1978
• MVA is the largest specialist transport
  consultancy in SE Asia
• Head Office in UK, developed TRIPS transport
  modeling software, now part of the Cube Suite

• Through MVAs Asia regional HQ in Hong Kong,
  permanent offices in Thailand, China and
  Singapore and numerous project offices have
  developed and applied Transport Models in most
  major cities in Asia

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Examples of Applications of Cube Around Asia

• Thailand
• Bangkok
• National Model
• Singapore
• PT highway models
• Hong Kong/China
• Hong Kong model
• Cross Boundary
• Beijing Model
• Shenzhen
• Taiwan
• Taiwan HSR
• Kaoshiung Model
• Philippines
• Metro Manila Model

• Vietnam
• Hanoi
• Ho Chi Minh City
• Pakistan
• Lahore
• Indonesia
• Jakarta
• Surabaya
• Bandung
• Java Interurban model
• Malaysia
• Klang Valley
• Malaysia National Model
• Johor Bahru

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Transport situation in Ho Chi Minh City
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An overview

• HCMC today
• 25 of Vietnam GDP
• 5,200 km²
• 6.5 m population in HCMC, 9m in the studied area
• 18m daily trips

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Key statistics

• Mode split
• 6 car ownership in 2007
• Very high motorcycle ownership
• PT mode split 4
• Households
• Household size 3.5
• Average HH income 8,000,000 VND/year (450 USD)
• Trends
• Population 3.5 growth p.a., 13.9m inhabitants
  in 2025
• GDP 8.5 p.a.
• Car registration 16 p.a.
• Motorcycle registration 8 p.a.

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Transportation networks

• Road and rail networks
• 4,000 km of roads
• Limited rail network

• Bus network
• Currently 120 bus lines
• Expansion in the past 5 years 65 bus lines in
  2003.
• Bus ridership has quadrupled in 4 years

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2025 Master Plan

• Master Plan for 2025
• Highway improvements, additional 100km
• New international airport
• Development of a High-Speed Rail system

• Public transportation
• 6 conventional metro rail lines, one tramway and
  2 monorails
• Development of a regional rail network
• Mode split target 44 PT

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Ho Chi Minh City Cube model overview
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Overview

• Model originally created with TRIPS in 1996,
• Subsequent updates in 1999, 2003 and 2005, and
  conversion to Cube Voyager in 2005.
• Modeling requirements
• Ability to effectively model the future transport
  policies
• Advanced rail forecasting model
• Cost-benefit analysis
• Key issues for the model development
• Evolution of socio-economic data
• Data availability and reliability
• Linking land use data to travel demand
• Need for an advanced mode split modeling process

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Overview

• Different models for different purposes
• A conventional 4-stage model for strategic
  transport planning and policies
• A refined PT assignment model for an advanced
  analysis
• A detailed highway assignment model for the
  impact on congestion

• An enhanced 2-hours AM peak model
• A socio-economic model for time and costs
  benefits

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4-stage model
Planning Data
Trip End Model
Trip Distribution

• Networks
• Highway
• Public Transport

Special Generators
Loop
Modal Split
Externals
Assignment
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Advanced models

• The enhanced PT models include
• Special generators
• Income segmentation
• Rail only and Busrail users splits
• Peak vehicle requirement

• The Enhanced Highway Model features
• Income segmentation
• Toll/Non-toll logit assignment

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Advanced models

• The AM peak model refines all daily main steps
• Generation of trip matrices
• PV and PT mode splits
• Highway assignment and congestion
• PT assignment

• The Socio-economic model includes
• Scenario comparison
• Time savings analysis

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Ho Chi Minh CityModeling details and capabilities
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Model Inputs

• TRANSPORT ON-SITE SURVEYS
• Household interview survey
• Public PT and PV OD
• Screenlines and Traffic Counts
• Cordon journey time
• Stated Preference
• Revealed Preference
• Bus boardings/alightings
• Occupancy
• Parking
• Taxi
• Freight
• Special generators

• SOCIO-ECONOMIC DATA
• Population/Households number and distribution
• Household Income and GDP per capita
• Employment
• Student Enrolments
• Vehicle ownership and Travel modes
• EXISTING AND FUTURE NETWORKS

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4-stage strategic model

• The 4 stage model follows a standard iterative
  structure with Generation, Distribution, Mode
  split and Assignment
• 4 user classes are used to represent the
  household characteristics.
• 4 vehicle classes and 7 PT modes are defined

• External generators, special generators and goods
  vehicles are modeled
• Output are fed into the refined models for
  detailed highway and PT modeling

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Mode split

• Advanced mode split modeling capability
• Household segmentation
• Trip purposes
• Vehicle ownership to vehicle availability model
• Toll/non-toll route choice logit model
• PV/PT modes diversion logit model
• Bus only/Busrail logit model

Veh. Ownership by UC
Veh. Availability
Demand by PV mode
?
Toll
Non-Toll
?
Final PV demand
PT demand
?
Bus only
Busrail
?
Outputs (road speeds, costs)
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Refined Public Transport model

• Main characteristics
• A refined zone system to represent the catchments
  around stations
• Special generators modeling
• An advanced busrail/rail only logit assignment
• A Peak Vehicle Requirement model

• Key outputs
• Stop to stop matrices
• PT lines boarding/alighting and loading profiles
• pcu loadings
• Costs and level of services
• Outputs are fed into all other advanced models

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Enhanced Assignment Model

• Multi user-class equilibrium assignment method
• User classes for cars, motorcycles, bicycles and
  goods vehicles
• Separate cost calculations and speed/flow
  relationships
• Adjusted bus loadings from the refined PT model
• Toll/non-toll route choice logit assignment for
  cars and goods vehicles

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AM peak and Socio-economic analysis

• AM peak model a refinement of all daily step
• Vehicle ownership and demand matrices
• AM peak vehicle availability mode split
• Refined external and PT diversion
• Peak hour assignment with refined bus loadings
  and congested bus speeds

• Socio-economic model
• Time savings pax trips, km, hour
• PV and PT mode diversion (zonal)
• Speeds and trip lengths by mode
• Corridor flows
• Scenario comparisons and reporting

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Typical Outputs

• PV/PT diversion and mode split by household
  class, trip purpose, vehicle class and district
• Assigned network, final vehicle flows and
  congested speeds
• Toll roads ridership
• Line boarding/alighting and loading profiles
• Savings comparison for multiple scenario (20)
• All outputs also available for AM peak

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Summary Conclusions
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Summary

• This presentation has highlighted a wide range of
  transport problems in Ho Chi Minh City
• Data sources and format
• Complex household categorization
• Rapid growth environment (vehicle registration,
  population)
• Future policies planning
• Current low PT ridership but important future
  changes

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Conclusions

• Cube provides flexible tools to accurately
  understand these problems through the setting up
  of multiple models
• A strategic 4 stage model to reflect the policy
  changes
• A refined PT model to obtain detailed line data
• An enhanced highway model for congestion and toll
  roads usage
• An AM peak model for 1 or 2 hours to stress local
  problems
• A socio-economic model to provide a
  decision-making tool
• HCMC models effectively used for several studies
  Master Plans, Pre-feasibility studies or
  benchmarking

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Thank you for your attention.