PAMTES POTENTIAL POLICY ROLE IN PENNSYLVANIA

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PAMTES POTENTIAL POLICY ROLE IN PENNSYLVANIA
2ND Annual PAMTE Symposium Shippensburg
University May 15 2008
F. Joseph Merlino, Principal Investigator and
Director The Math Science Partnership of Greater
Philadelphia
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Trends For 2008-2014

• Ten major demographic, economic, and
  educational trends are converging as America
  starts its 2nd decade in the 21st Century .
• The resultant intersection of these trends
  threaten the vitality of American economic,
  educational and political institutions.

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Trend 1 Increased Per Pupil Education
Expenditures Due to Greater Percent of Students
in Special Education, English Language Learners,
Poor, Minorities, Increase Demand in Teacher
Quality, Low Teacher Supply in Key Areas,
Employee Health Care Costs, Retirement Benefits
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k-12 Educational Expenditures in constant
200203 dollars

• From 198889 to 200102 K -12 educational
  expenditures increased 45 percent
• By 201314, expenditures projected to increase
  up 39 in constant dollars to 525 billion per
  year..

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Trend 2 Persistent Achievement Gap

• Large Differences in Math and Reading
  Proficiencies in Elementary, Middle and High
  School Between
  
• Asians and Whites,
• Whites and Black and Hispanics
• Economically Disadvantaged, Special Education,
  English Language Learners and those white English
  speaking students from moderate to high SES
  backgrounds

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Below Basic
Advanced
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Trend 3 Increasing Racial and Ethnic Diversity
as Percentage of US Population
Poorer Hispanic and Black Populations Continue to
Grow as Percentage of US Population Young People
are Fasting Growing Minority Segment
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Trend 4 Persistent or Increased High School
Drop-out Rate (non GED)
High School Graduation Rates Stay Flat or Decline
Owing to Greater Percentages of Poorer Hispanics
and Blacks in the Student Population
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5 Increased Demand for Post Secondary Studies
but many students not prepared
Rising to the Challenge Are High School Graduates
Prepared For College Work?
Key findings from surveys among public high
school graduates, college instructors, and
employers Conducted December 2004January 2005 for
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Few Employers Feel High School Graduates Prepared
For Advancement
Applicants with no high school degree Recent
public high school grads who have no further
education/training Recent grads of two-year
college or training program Recent graduates of
four-year colleges
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Employers/Instructors Dissatisfied With High
Schools Skills Prep
(In each area, saying they are somewhat/very
dissatisfied with the job public high schools are
doing preparing graduates)
Employers
29 very dissatisfied 22 very dissatisfied16
very dissatisfied 17 very dissatisfied
Thinking analytically Work and study
habits Applying what is learned in school to
solving problems Computer skills
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College Instructors Are Harshest Critics Of High
School
Do public high schools adequately prepare
graduates to meet the expectations they face in
college
In first-year classes, how much class time do you
spend reviewing material and skills that should
have been taught in high school?
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Some class time
Do not adequately prepare graduates
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Very little class time
Adequately prepare graduates
Significant amount of class time (24)
Employers
No class time
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6 Stiffer Competition from Abroad in STEM Talent
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Program for International Student Assessment
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High School Graduate Science Performance
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High School Graduate Math Performance
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China
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7 Rising Asia, Russia and European Union
Economies
1,628 mil
269 mil
529 mil
323 mil
3,075 mil
450 mil
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Fastest Growing Economies are China, India
Russia
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Trend 8 Declining Student Interest in STEM
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Trend 9 Retiring Baby Boomers Insufficient
Numbers of Skilled Foreign Workers
Substantial increases in those segments of
Americas young population with the lowest level
of education, combined with the coming
retirement of the baby boomersthe most highly
educated generation in U.S. history are
projected to lead to a drop in the average level
of education of the U.S. workforce over the next
two decades, unless states do a better job of
raising the educational level of all
racial/ethnic groups.
""Policy Alert" by the Nat'l Center for Public
Policy and Higher Education
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Washington, DC Feb. 24-27, 2007
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August 2005
GOVERNOR RENDELL CREATES NEW COMMISSIONS TO
TRAIN TEACHERS AND PREPARE HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS
FOR COLLEGE AND CAREERS
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Trend 10 Continued and Increased School
District Accountability by Federal and State
Governments

• Due to
• Rising Education Expenditures in constant dollars
  per pupil and overall
• Importance of Higher Levels of Education to the
  Economy
• Political Disenfranchisement of Growing Portions
  of Latinos and Blacks resulting from inequities
  in opportunities to learn.

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• What does Adequate Yearly Progress Measure?
• AYP measures student results for three
  indicators,
• Attendance (for schools without a high school
  graduating class) or Graduation Rate (for schools
  with a high school graduating class)
• Academic Performance and
• Test Participation.
• The details of AYP measurement can be complicated

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States determine AYP performance targets based on
students' standardized test scores each year.
The Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE)
uses the Pennsylvania System of School Assessment
(PSSA) to determine AYP performance. Grades 3,
4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 11 Participation in and
performance on the PSSA is a cornerstone of
measuring AYP results. As measured by the PSSA,
students' scores fall into one of four
levels Advanced (highest) Proficient
Basic Below Basic
(lowest)
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AYP STATUS LEVELS
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RESULT The Accountability Squeeze

• No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Federal Requires
• K-12 Public School Districts Must Make Steady
  Progress Toward Reaching 100 Proficiency
  
• For 41 Subgroups of Students in Math and Reading
  
  
• All Schools within a District by 2014
  
  
• Risk Losing Federal Education Money

Each School must make Adequate Yearly Progress
(AYP) based on a ever increasing percentage of
their student being Proficient.
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Reading
Math
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Proportion of PA High Schools that Reached AYP
Proficiency Overall in 11th Grade Math
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• Likely Outcomes
• 1. 50 of all PA high schools will not reach AYP
  in 2008,
• 2. More than 90 of PA schools will fail to reach
  100 Proficiency in Math ,Reading and Science by
  2014 for all students.
• 3. Persistent Achievement and Graduation Gaps in
  NCLB categories
• Crisis points
• Credibility of NCLB and Corrective Action
  sanctions.
• So what if we fail? What can the state
  really do with so many?
• 2. Inability of states and schools to improve
  student learning for all students at sufficient
  levels as reflected in high stakes state tests.
• 3. Widening social and personal inequities,
  increased proportion of low knowledge young
  people in a high knowledge economy.

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"Policy Alert" by the Nat'l Center for Public
Policy and Higher Education
"The projected decline in educational levels
coincides with the growth of a knowledge-based
economy that requires most workers to have higher
levels of education. At the same time, the
expansion of a global economy allows industry
increased flexibility in hiring workers overseas.
As other developed nations continue to improve
the education of their workforces, the United
States and its workers will increasingly find
themselves at a competitive disadvantage. "In
addition, a drop in the average level of
education of U.S. workers would depress personal
income levels for Americans, in turn creating a
corresponding decrease in the nations tax base.
The projected declines in educational and income
levels can be reversed, however, if states do a
better job of increasing the education of all
their residents, particularly those populations
that are growing fastest.
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www.mspgp.org/2007STEM.html
 
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Storm Trends
1 Increased Per Pupil Education Expenditures
2 Continued and Increased School District
Accountability by Federal and State Governments
3 The NCLB Accountability Squeeze
4 Persistent Achievement Gaps
5 Increasing Racial and Ethnic Diversity as
Percentage of US Population
6 High School and College Dropouts and Drop
downs
7 Increased Demand for Post Secondary Studies

(but many students not well prepared)
8 Stiffer Competition from Abroad in STEM Talent
9 Declining of Flat Interest In STEM and Life
Sciences
10 Domestic Human STEM Capital Shortage
Insufficient Numbers of Skilled Foreign Workers