The Future of Wireless

1
The Future of Wireless

• Dr. Hamdy Ellaithy
• Vodafone Egypt
• 6th Annual Private Sector Cooperation Meeting
• In the Arab Region
• December 2007

2
The world goes broadband
UK Broadband Penetration
VDSL2 50Mbps
DSL performance sets user expectations
ADSL2 25Mbps
?
HSDPA 7.2Mbps
ADSL2 8Mbps
ADSL 2Mbps
ADSL 1Mbps
HSDPA 3.6Mbps
3
Terminal capability is raising the stakes
the physical embodiment of Moores Law
Mobile Internet

Increasing dependency on wireless broadband for a
compelling user experience
MP3
Full WWW capabilities now driving Web 2.0
innovation on the mobile platform
Increasing multimedia functionality services
but coupled closely with the PC activating
device and enabling upgrades
iPhone also driving awareness of Mobile Internet
4
Spectrum is again on the agenda
The Old World

• Shortage of spectrum
• Heavily regulated usage defined by regulators
• Allocation by Beauty Contest
• Barrier to new entrants

Spectrum Liberalisation
A New World has emerged

Licensed and Unlicensed

• Allocation by auction
• Auction income causes governments to find more
  spectrum, reducing shortage of supply
• Gradual move to lighter regulation
• Spectrum rights may permit change of use
• Spectrum may be traded

Opportunities on horizon
3G extension band at 2.5 - 2.69 GHz Digital
Dividend at 470-860 MHz Can we get
coordination in Europe?
If spectrum is divided between too many, it
becomes useless!!
5
Wireless broadband - contenders timelines
2009
2010
2006
2007
2008
HSDPA 3.6 Mbps
HSDPA 7.2 Mbps
HSDPA 7.2 Mbps
HSPA ?
HSPA
HSUPA 1.4Mbps
HSUPA 5.7 Mbps
Specification process Complete Q4 07
LTE
Test specifications pre-commercial trials
Available 2009/2010
R1.0 Wave1 available Q1 07
802.16e-2005 ratified Q4 05
Mobile WiMAX
R1.0 Wave2 available Q4 07
Mobile WiMAX R2.0 2009/2010?
Specification Complete Q2 07
Rev C
Performance requirements Define RAN architecture
Joint proposal July 06
6
Radio performance comparison spectral efficiency

• Charts are a measure of spectral efficiency based
  on the aggregate site throughput (assuming three
  sectors per site)
• Expressed as bits/sec/Hz/site
• 10MHz overall system bandwidth in all cases
• All three systems offer similar performance once
  WiMAX gets to Wave 2 stage (Q1 08)
• Intel vision will be driven as a performance
  target within the latest IEEE 802.16m standard
  Vodafone will engage in this process

7
Radio performance comparison peak rates
45
Downlink peak
40
Uplink peak
35
30
25
Peak data rate Mbps
20
15
10
5
0
HSPA
LTE
Wave 1
"Rev C"
Wave 2
10 MHz TDD, 31 DLUL ratio
55 MHz FDD

• Peak rate can be a misleading measure of system
  performance. In reality, users are unlikely to
  achieve these data rates across a meaningful area
  except if small cells are deployed

8
How many users can be supported?

• Profile of data usage three examples
  considered
• Real time video streaming
• Mobile office
• Web browsing
• Key assumptions
• Typical www browsing model with gt90 of users
  receiving page in less than 4 seconds. Mean page
  size approx 25kB.
• Mobile office e-mails / file transfer generates
  75MB in 8 hour working day 21 kbps
• Video streaming is variable bit rate, but
  averages 256kbps or 1 Mbps per stream. 5 outage
  rate.
• Only downlink has been considered
• All technologies using 10MHz spectrum (55 FDD,
  10 TDD). WiMax has asymmetric ratio (31) in
  favour of downlink.

600
Number of Mobile office or www users per cell
500
400
300
200
100
0
Wave 1
HSPA
LTE
Wave 2
HSPA
60
Number of streaming video users (_at_ 256 kbps) per
cell
50
40
30
20
10
0
Video (256kbps)
Video (1Mbps)
Mobile Office (75 MB/8 hrs) or browsing
14
HSPA (Rx div, Eq)
lt1
120
150
HSPA (MIMO)
17
lt1
36
310
LTE
1?
38
330
Mobile WiMax Wave 1
lt1
Mobile WiMax Wave 2
56
1-2?
490
9
But more spectrum equals more users Sprint has
upwards of 60MHz in key markets

• Going from N1 to N3 significantly reduces
  interference. This boosts sector throughput (x2
  approx.) and improves availability peak data
  rates.

Coverage plots illustrate peak downlink data rate
with N1 and N3 frequency reuse
10
Other approaches to wireless broadband Mesh WiFi
A service for the community plus vertical
applications for municipals

• gt300 municipal broadband networks are planned or
  deployed in the U.S. metro areas using mesh WiFi.
  Now starting to appear in Europe.
• Inexpensive access points (using 802.11)
  wirelessly linked using licence exempt spectrum.
• The technology provider space is crowded but
  Tropos claim to own 80 market share
• No device subsidy, plus subsidised base sites /
  backhaul can drive down the overall cost.
• The technology works to some extent but the
  business case has yet to be proven

Vodafone RD technology trials Explored WLAN
based multi-hop relay systems, but with mixed
success. Coverage remains a challenge, and rapid
re-routing destroys performance Other trials
showed good throughput but very slow routing Can
we get both together?
11
Two routes to the wireless future
IT Community
Telecom Community
IEEE 802.16

• (Smart) Phones
• Sell services, subsidise goods
• Value added services
• Reliable and secure
• Telecoms architecture / interworking
• FDD radio technologies

• Computers (with Communication)
• Sell goods, subsidise services
• Broadband bit pipes
• Best effort
• Internet architecture
• TDD radio technologies

12
Industry Balance China Will Play a Big Role
Long Term Evolution
Clear choice in Europe ? Needs US support ?
Diverse spectrum choices - No commercial orders
likely for some time
Commercial order in US Clear view on
spectrum ? Traction in emerging markets - Tough
play in Europe
13
Network horizontalisation
14
Deployment Challenge
15
The coverage challenge what kind of site?

• Vodafone study aiming at comprehensive dense
  urban coverage with 1MB/s uplink estimated
  required site density
• 10 Macro /km2 impractical?
• 150 lamppost /km2
• Lamppost network could use simpler, smaller
  equipment and less spectrum
• BUT
• Big challenge to deliver backhaul

Macro Lamppost
The backhaul challenge

• Backhaul options DSL? Fibre? Microwave
  Mesh?
• Need a flexible, resilient, high capacity
  solution allowing rapid deployment

The biggest challenge in deploying broadband
networks will be delivering cost-effective
backhaul
16
MetroZone
Femtocells
Base stations deployed in the
home Subscribers deploy their own coverage
-network deployment better tailored to subscriber
demand. Very low power (20mW initially)
Residential
takes
takes
-
-
17
Take-aways
18
Points Raised

• New breeds of base stations femto cells,
  microcells, relaying nodes
• Ever more personal and tactile terminals
• New technology OFDMA instead of CDMA
• Multiplicity of access technologies
• New frequency bands 2.6 GHZ and UHF
• Greater responsibility for use of spectrum

• Convergence of telecommunications and the
  Internet
• New players from the Internet community with
  lessons to learn
• Vodafone playing a greater role in determining
  which technologies will dominate
• China