Demand for Education and Training: Stimulus package and beyond

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Demand for Education and Training Stimulus
package and beyond
Center on Education and the Workforce March 6th
2009
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Figure 1 The Jobs are trending and will
continue to trend downwardsEstablishment
Employment (in millions)
Source CEWs Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers,
Long-term Economic Outlook, January 2009
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Figure 2 Those with relatively lower levels of
human capital are most negatively affected by
recessions demonstrating the task before the
Workforce Investment Boards Unemployment by
education Level
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment
Situation
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Figure 2b Most current data on unemployment by
education level Unemployment by education Level
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment
Situation
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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The experts have their say on the depth and
length of the recession.
Source The Washington Post, Match 4th 2009
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Figure 3 Will it ever end??? Establishment
Employment (in Millions)
Source CEWs Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers,
Long-term Economic Outlook, January 2009
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Figure 4 The business cycle We need think about
acting in a recession as setting the grounds for
recovery Establishment Employment (in Millions)
Source CEWs Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers,
Long-term Economic Outlook, January 2009
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Topics of discussion

• Job growth by industry and occupation
• The Education and training requirements of
  stimulus jobs
• Training in the recession and recovery
• And what about Green Jobs? Many emerging jobs
  cant be predicted easily
• Thinking beyond the recession
• Our ongoing research

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Table 1 What Types of Jobs? (The Highlights)
Source American Recovery and Reinvestment
Act The White House, February 2009
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Figure 5 A Breakdown of Jobs by Industry, Obama
Administrations Plan for Jobs based on the
Stimulus Package. Construction (18), Retail
(15), Hospitality (14) and Manufacturing (11)
produce 60 of the Jobs
Source Romer and Bernstein (2009) based on their
estimates of the effects by industry from Mark
Zandis The Economic Impact of a 600 Billion
Fiscal Stimulus Package, Moodys Economy.com,
November 28th 2008.
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Figure 6 Distribution of 3.7 Million Stimulus
Jobs by Occupation. The Majority of these jobs
(59) will be in Managerial (17), Service
(15), Construction (14) and Sales (14) related
occupations.
Source Carnevale, Strohl and Smiths analysis of
March CPS data, 2005-2007 (pooled sample)
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Figure 7 Education Requirements for Stimulus
Package Jobs.
46 College Jobs
54 non-College Jobs
Source Carnevale, Strohl and Smiths analysis of
ONET Education and Training data by Occupation
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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This is not you fathers WPA

• Non-College Jobs require formal and informal
  training
• Many jobs require extensive experience
• Mapping skill sets to emerging jobs will be an
  important function to move the unemployed from
  one trade to another
• ONET might be key ( more discussion later)

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Figure 8 Many of the non-college jobs require
Employer-Provided Classroom Training which is
often short and could be satisfied by job
preparation and other training.
Non-college jobs include high school dropouts,
high school graduates, post-secondary
certificates and some college but no
degree. Carnevale, Strohl and Smiths analysis
of ONET Education and Training data by
Occupation
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Figure 9 Many of these non-college jobs also
require Informal On-the-Job Training
Non-college jobs include high school dropouts,
high school graduates, post-secondary
certificates and some college but no
degree. Source Carnevale, Strohl and Smiths
analysis of ONET Education and Training data by
Occupation
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Figure 10 Work Experience is Required for
non-College Jobs
Non-college jobs include high school dropouts,
high school graduates, post-secondary
certificates and some college but no
degree. Source Carnevale, Strohl and Smiths
analysis of ONET Education and Training data by
Occupation
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Figure 11 Registered Apprenticeship Training
Required for non-College Jobs in the Stimulus
Package
Non-college jobs include high school dropouts,
high school graduates, post-secondary
certificates and some college but no
degree. Apprenticeships presented in this chart
are those with a registered US Department of
Labor program that provide a certificate of
completion. They represent approximately 25-50
of all Apprenticeship programs in the United
States. (This number is a rough estimate provided
by industry experts. Estimates of unregistered
apprenticeship programs are difficult to
obtain). Source Carnevale, Strohl and Smiths
analysis of ONET Education and Training data by
Occupation
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Figure 12 Employment Impact of the Stimulus
Package By State- While the numbers differ the
per capita impact is fairly even
Source American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
State-by-State Impact, The White House, February
2009
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Table 2 Large numbers of training dollars will
flow to the states quickly but in per capita
terms coverage varies widely Alaska-20 per
capita, California -13.80, Iowa -5.46
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Training in the recession

• Substantial amounts of money in the stimulus
  package are devoted to training
• These monies are mandated to be spent quickly
• The timeliness of the problem demands training
  occur through existing channels to meet the
  requirements of todays shovel-ready jobs
• Stimulus bill allows education and training to
  extend UI.

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Training in the recession contd

• We can expect increased demand for short-term
  training
• Currently, specific size of this demand is
  difficult to predict until the pool of skills of
  the unemployed is utilized
• Current technology holds promise to improve the
  understanding of employer demand

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Current Technological Advances

• Data Systems are evolving
• The future of training systems suggests that real
  time job openings data are able to provide quick
  and accurate snapshots of job demand and thus
  help predict changing training needs
• LED and LEHD data provide trend and extensive
  local data
• ONET can be used to understand skill
  transferability as well as better targeting
  training

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And What about Green Jobs

• Green jobs reference the Green Jobs Act of 2007
  which was later included in the Energy Security
  and Independence Act
• Unlike other workforce efforts focusing on
  Industry or Occupation green jobs are defined by
  their impact on the environment
• Innovative job creation and training offers a
  unique opening for workforce development in that
  new jobs can be created. While ripe for abuse
  (relabeling old jobs) Jobs can be grown through
  Green Job Monies
• Yesterdays Civilian Conservation Corps can
  become todays Green Jobs Corps

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Thinking Beyond the Recession I

• The stimulus will deliver monies that can
  leverage the existing training system to evolve
  if people on the ground are not overwhelmed by
  crisis and see that recovery follows.

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Thinking Beyond the Recession II

• Accelerated Curricula and Course Clusters can
  provide training that is responsive to evolving
  workforce needs.
• Longer term employment projections still suggest
  extensive growth in education demand for some
  college and above.
• The story is not all middle-skill jobs either.
• The middle-skill story derives from BLS
  truncating education demand A method BLS, is
  changing.

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Table 3  Projected Demand for Education to 2016,
CEW estimates (in millions)
Source Centers calculations of projections in
the demand for education using March CPS data,
various years
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Conclusion

• The recession will bring relatively high
  unemployment especially among marginalized
  populations.
• Unemployment among BAs and Graduates is pushing
  4 while High School and Less is bridging 12
• The Stimulus purposely distributes monies through
  the existing WIA channels because this is where
  the Rubber hits the Road
• Thinking beyond the recession gives opportunity
  to leverage training monies towards new,
  innovative, and fluid training systems built on
  signaling from real time data, and delivered via
  accelerated curricula, when appropriate

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
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Ongoing research at the Georgetown University
Center on Education and the Workforce

• We are engaging the Department of Labor and other
  groups to develop the use of Real Time Job
  Openings as a tool for Workforce Development.
• We are adjusting current employment projections
  for the effects of the recession and stimulus
• Once the adjustments are made nationally we will
  reproduce in-depth analyses at that state and
  sub-state levels.

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009