Voting Behaviour

1
Voting Behaviour

• The US electorate tends to be divided by
  religion, ethnicity, race and region.
• These are much more important in explaining
  voting patterns than class or income, which tend
  to predominate in the UK and Europe.

2
Voting Behaviour

• Traditionally, Republicans have been described as
  WASPs (White Anglo-Saxon Protestants), and the
  rest - Catholic, black, Jewish, and Southern -
  have tended to side with the Democrats.

entered politics in 1946 and won election as a
Democrat to the US House of Representatives.
3
Voting Behaviour

• However, one of the key changes in the last 25
  years has been the shift of Southern whites
  towards the Republican party
• although President George Bush's Republicans
  recently have fared badly in state and local
  polls, losing races across the US.

Mr Schwarzenegger's popularity has fallen sharply
since 2003
4
Voting Behaviour

• What is the secret of the Republican's appeal to
  these voters?

5
Voting Behaviour

• For the last two decades, the parties have sought
  to mobilise their core supporters by appealing
  not to class but to "value" issues.

• The hot electoral issues in the USA are abortion,
  gun control and the environment.
• And many of these world views are linked to where
  you live, with city dwellers being both more
  ethnically diverse and more likely to hold the
  "liberal" views on these issues.

6
Voting Behaviour

• The rural voters, in contrast, hold more
  traditional views. They are strongly patriotic
  and less likely to question the President's right
  to set the foreign policy agenda.

7
Voting Behaviour

• they generally are more likely to oppose gun
  control and tight environmental protection, while
  worrying about whether there are too many
  abortions and single parents.

8
Voting Behaviour

• This polarises politics, with Democrats
  supporting Affirmative Action, redistribution of
  wealth, welfare rights, reform of the criminal
  justice system and other liberal causes.
• Republicans in turn, will emphasise policies
  which appeal to their white, middle class
  heartland. Issues such as tax cutting, law
  enforcement, welfare reform and cutting back on
  federal spending.

9
Voting Behaviour

• This will vary geographically.
• White Democrats in the South will be noticeably
  more conservative and will have more in common
  with their Republican foes than with black
  Democrats.
• This is because while they know they have the
  black vote in the bag, it is less likely to
  vote.

10
Voting Behaviour

• There is therefore a need to appeal to white
  voters in order to win.
• White voters in the Deep South are poorer, less
  liberal and more likely to vote Republican
  because of their social policies (for example,
  pro capital punishment, anti-abortion, anti-gay
  rights

11
Voting Behaviour

• The largest cities and the biggest states are now
  disproportionately Democratic, while the rural
  areas and small states are trending Republican.

12

• The Republicans lost six of the eight largest
  states in the last presidential election,
  capturing only Texas and Florida - but only just.
  However, again the Republicans ran strongly in
  the smaller rural states of West and South.

13
Voting Behaviour

• By European standards, both the Democrats and
  Republicans are remarkably similar in their
  ideology - or lack of it.

14
Voting Behaviour

• Instead, religion is a key element in the party
  coalitions, especially for the Republicans
  (although black Democrats are also strongly
  religious.)
• Evangelical Christians are far more likely to
  vote for the Republicans than any other group.

15
Voting Behaviour

• The Democrat coalition now includes both the
  richest income groups and the poorest - who tend
  to be disproportionately black or Hispanic

16
Voting Behaviour

• Bill Clinton drew both sides of his party
  togetherBill Clinton was successful because of
  his ability to appeal to both the urban black
  poor, and to the rich Democrats who were his main
  funders.

17
Voting Behaviour

• The Republicans are also a coalition of the
  Christian conservatives, who feel strongly about
  "value issues" like abortion, and the small
  business community, who are strong advocates of
  tax cuts and deregulation

18
Voting Behaviour

• George W Bush himself belongs to a special subset
  of the business community - Texas oilmen - but he
  has found it necessary to reach out to the
  religious right through his special adviser, Karl
  Rove. (pictured)