CBRN Terrorism Mitigation: New Aspects

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CBRN Terrorism MitigationNew Aspects
F. STEINHAUSLER AND A. SOBEL
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Topics

• Terrorism Threat
• CBRN Mitigation

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1. Terrorism Threat
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Threat Development

• Suicide terrorism
• Sequential truck bombs
• State sponsored terrorism
• Swarm attacks
• Remote-control of terrorist operations
• Dual-use-technology terrorism

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Threat Outlook

• Attacks on chemical facilities, other critical
  infrastructure
• Decoding of individual genomes,metabolomes
• Communicable disease
• Physical protection of nuclear weapons

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Terrorist Profile Society Response

• Motivation
• Psychology of groups and self-organization
• Radicalization
• Sacred values
• Mindset of terrorist

• Bonding of victims
• Complacency towards security risks
• Extent of panic
• Self-reliance of public
• Resilience of society
• Education of the next-generation of scientists

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2. CBRN Mitigation
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Mitigation and Threat

• CBRN weapons are likely to be deployed against
• High concentration of civilians present at high
  value or symbolic targets
• Critical infrastructure (e.g., petrochemical
  facilities, power plants, pipelines, nuclear
  sites)?
• Security forces
• Psychology and political will

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Mitigation and Probability

• CBRN deployment has widely differing probability
• High p Low-cost
• Easy to make R-device
• Easy to access and dual-use
• Medium p Low-cost
• Crude B-, C-device
• Low p Material acquisition complex
• Improvised N-device weaponize
• (HEU-based device only)?

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Examples in Countries with Large Populations
Russia and India

• Russia Critique on politicizing Nuclear
• Terrorism and overestimating risk
• Need for increased realism in CBRN
  mitigation
• India Predominant weighing different threats to
  society and ideologies
• Ranking of CBRN within the scope of
  conventional terrorism
• Low key efforts to mitigate CBRN in large
  populations

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Information Needs

• CBRN Mitigation requires information on
• Equipment/processes necessary for the evaluation
  of a CBRN incident
• Minimum capability for a nation, local government
  or individual to adequately identify and mitigate
  the consequences
• Adequacy of international, national, regional or
  local communication systems and standards
  available

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Innovative Emergency Response Management
Cellular Phone System

• Information relayed to individuals in emergency
  zone
• PLUS Data/science-driven management of
  overall emergency response
• OPEN ISSUE Technical implementation

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CBRN Scenario Testing

• Nuclear Attack
• Large city under N-attack by boat
• Important role of fallout mapping
• PLUS Multidimensional information
  infrastructure in place
• OPEN ISSUE Feasibility of scenario design
• White Powder Attack
• Small city facing unknown threat
• Important role of decision forming
  process/immediate steps
• PLUS Logical deduction by exclusion
  confirmation
• OPEN ISSUE First Responder capability

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Post-Attack 100 Days

• Chemical
• Thousand of victims
• Present emergency management feasible, if
  adequate Public Health System in place
• OPEN ISSUE Questionable surge capacity and
  sustainability
• Biological
• Tens of thousands of victims
• Adequacy of current emergency management
  questionable in case of epidemic due to
  overburdening of Public Health System
• OPEN ISSUE Logistical problems with quarantine
  and baseline assessment of endemic disease

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Post-Attack 100 Days (continued)?

• Radiological
• Dozens of victims
• Current emergency management adequate
• Sound clean-up procedures and targeted
  communication-strategy are key
• OPEN ISSUE Stigmatization of victims property
  devaluation
• Nuclear
• Tens of thousands of victims, depending on yield,
  population density, mode of deployment and
  metrological conditions
• Successful emergency management dependent on
  timely arrival of adequate outside assistance
• Long-term problems likely
• OPEN ISSUE Uncertain resilience of survivors
  until arrival of external assistance genetics
  and impact on health issues of future generations

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Summary

• A simplified one-science approach is recommended
  for CBRN operations
• Many domains have yet to be explored to include
  the complex systems impacting CBRN operations
• Psychological and political realms
• Adaptive and self-organizing networks
• Autonomous systems
• Understanding of human factors