CLIVAR Update for JSC30

1
CLIVAR Update for JSC-30 Priorities to 2013 and
Beyond
Jim Hurrell and Howard Cattle
2
Outline

• Mission and Objectives
• Organization
• Contributions to WCRP Implementation Plan
• Unifying COPES Themes
• WCRP Cross Cuts
• Priorities Over the Next 5 years
• Frontiers Beyond 2013
• Infrastructure Needs
• Issues for JSC Consideration

3
CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability)
Mission To observe, simulate and
predict changes in the earths climate system
with a focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions,
enabling better understanding of climate
variability, predictability and change, to the
benefit of society and the environment in which
we live.
4
CLIVAR Objectives

• Understand the causes of climate variability on
• seasonal to centennial time-scales through
• observations, analysis, and models

• Improve predictions of climate variability and
• change associated from both internal and
• external processes

• Extend observational climate record through
• assembly of quality-controlled paleoclimatic
  and
• instrumental data sets

5
(No Transcript)
6
CLIVAR input to WCRP Implementation Plan

• Latest CLIVAR Draft 25 March 2009
• Updated in response to comments from JSC
• (on 11 February 2009 version)

• A work in progress In particular, CLIVAR
  SSG-16
• (Madrid, 19-22 May 2009) will
• Review, reaffirm and build consensus on the
• intermediate- term priorities
• More fully address JSC comments/concerns,
• including how to deliver on CLIVAR
  contributions
• Focus on emerging science challenges for
• 2013 and beyond

7
Contributions to Unifying COPES Themes
8
Contributions to Cross Cutting Activities

• Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate
• e.g, WGCM and VOCALS

• Anthropogenic Climate Change
• e.g., activities of WGCM, ETCCDI, Ocean Basin
  Panels

• Seasonal Prediction (CLIVAR Lead)
• e.g, Climate system Historical Forecast Project
  (CHFP)

• Decadal Prediction (CLIVAR Lead)
• Exploring decadal predictability and predictions

• Monsoons (Lead with GEWEX)

• Extremes (Lead with GEWEX)

• Sea Level Rise
• e.g, ocean observing system

• IPY
• e.g, SOP lead of CASO

• IPY
• e.g, SOP lead of CASO

9
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Approach

• Organize around
• ACC, decadal and seasonal prediction, monsoon
• and extremes cross cuts under COPES
• Additional focus on observations, synthesis and
  
• ocean modeling as a particular CLIVAR
  contributions
• to overarching COPES themes

• Asked each panel to identify top priorities
  under
• each topic above (as appropriate)
• 2-3 imperatives for each topic (15 total)
• Reflects breadth and depth of activities

10
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Anthropogenic Climate Change
• Realize long-term climate change integrations
  under
• WGCM/AIMES/IAM joint planning

11
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Anthropogenic Climate Change
• Promote analysis of CMIP5

12
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Anthropogenic Climate Change
• Promote analysis of CMIP5

• Explore regional change through regional panels

13
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Decadal Variability and Predictions
• (Key Focus Across CLIVAR)

• To what extent is decadal variability in the
  oceans
• and atmosphere predictable?

• What are the mechanisms of variability?

Predictability Determined by Mechanisms

• Interactions of Forced
• and Natural Variability

14
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Decadal Variability and Predictions
• (Key Focus Across CLIVAR)
• To what extent is decadal variability in the
  oceans
• and atmosphere predictable?

• What are the mechanisms of variability?

15
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Decadal Variability and Predictions
• (Key Focus Across CLIVAR)
• Do we have the proper tools to realize the
• predictability?

• (Coupled) data assimilation systems to
  initialize models?

• Models good enough to make skillful
  predictions?

16
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Decadal Variability and Predictions
• (Key Focus Across CLIVAR)
• First attempts already underway

17
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Seasonal Prediction (see also April 2009 WCRP
  Report)
• Realize CHFP as WCRP-wide activity leading to
• improved predictions

• Experimental Protocol defined
• 10 Participating Groups (12 models)
• Development of diagnostic subprojects

• Building links for pan-WCRP involvement

GEWEX GLACE-2 SPARC Stratospheric Historical
Forecast Project CliC Snow Cover Impact
Experiments

• Data Distribution Strategy in Place

Three distributed data servers Data can be
downloaded in common format and grid
18
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Seasonal (and Longer-Term) Prediction
• Facilitate completion of key process studies

• Improve prediction of key tropical modes (ENSO,
  TAV)

19
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Monsoons and African Climate Variability
• Contribute to improved predictions through

• Leveraging key WCRP modeling experiments
  diagnostic subprojects

20
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Extremes
• With GEWEX organized focused WCRP activity

21
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Extremes
• With GEWEX organized focused WCRP activity

• Initial thrust on drought

22
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Further development/implementation of
• Pacific and Indian Ocean systems
• Development of Southern Ocean (with
• (SCAR) and South Atlantic systems
• With IOCCP and IGBP IMBER and SOLAS
• strategy for future ocean hydrography,
• carbon and biogeochemistry
• measurements through GO_SHIP
• Refine and augment Argo
• Facilitate implementation of network
• of autonomous measurements
• of deep ocean (deep Argo)

23
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Continue development of ocean synthesis
• products and reanalysis

24
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Improved Ocean Models (WGOMD)

• Key to achieving CLIVAR/WCRP goals for ocean
• analysis, seasonal and decadal prediction and
  
• anthropogenic climate change

Atlantic MOC index from a suite of coupled
climate models
Differences in amplitude and time scale of
simulated MOC variability Perfect model
predictability experiments would likely show
correspondingly distinct behaviors
25
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Improved Ocean Models (WGOMD)

• Key to achieving CLIVAR/WCRP goals for ocean
• analysis, seasonal and decadal prediction and
  
• anthropogenic climate change

WGOMD Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference
Experiments
CORE-I Results 500 yr repeating annual cycle

• CORE-II protocol
• Interannually-varying forcing
• based on analysis products
• Web-based repository for evaluating
• ocean simulations

26
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Some Examples

• Develop and Strengthen Interactions with
• Ocean Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Communities

• Develop and strengthen existing links with
  IMBER,
• PICES, SIBER (INDIAN OCEAN), IOCCP
• Joint targeted workshops
• Develop ocean carbon aspects of ocean
  synthesis
• activities (WGCM with IGBP AIMES/WGOMD
  GSOP)

27
Frontiers Beyond 2013

• Climate observations (CLIVAR emphasis on ocean
  obs)
• Long-term, continuous and well calibrated
  observations

• Attribution and prediction of regional weather
  and climate
• Decadal variability and prediction
• Science most directly connects to decision makers
  at the regional level

• Nonstationary climate variability and prediction
• How will natural modes of variability change
  implications for prediction

• Development of next generation Earth System
  Models
• Physical climate carbon cycle, dynamic
  vegetation, chemistry, land ice,
• ecosystem processes, human dimensions,
• More unified approaches to improve representation
  of physical processes
• (predictions across timescales share
  common processes and mechanisms)

• Integrated Earth System analysis
• Develop capability to integrate increasing range
  of observations in ESMs
• to produce internally consistent
  estimates of the state of the Earth system

• Geoengineering
• Major research effort needed to determine costs,
  risks and consequences

28
International Project Offices

• IPOs perform a vital function with respect to
  grass roots
• communication with community
• They make things happen and leverage
  significant resources
• Their role and function in a new structure for
  WCRP, as well
• as funding, are important elements for
  consideration.

29
International CLIVAR Project Office

• Primary support from NERC and US IAG
• Previous smaller funding from other national
  sources.
• Staff travel covered by WCRP or other funding
  sources
• Office (3 staff) hosted by National Oceanography
  Centre, Southampton with others (2.5 FTE) hosted
  in Vigo, Spain Princeton and Buenos Aires. All
  contribute in kind funding for overheads
• Current NERC 5 year contract runs to 31 March
  2010.
• New bid to NERC to be developed over coming
  months in light of outcomes of JSC-30 and future
  pathway for WCRP and CLIVAR.
• New Director 31 March 2010

30
Issues for the JSC

• Comments welcome on the CLIVAR priorities to 2013
  and their fit to the overall COPES strategy
• Decadal variability and prediction, and its
  seamless links to longer and shorter timescales,
  is a key integrator for CLIVAR to 2013. Comments
  from JSC?
• Much more discussion coming on the post-2013
  frontiers. JSC input and advice welcome
• New model for CLIVAR SSG a small Exec with one
  chair from each panel having membership brings
  buy-in
• JSC views on the ICPO (and more generally the
  value of IPOs and transition to the new structure)