Climate Change Scenario Planning:

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Climate Change Scenario Planning
A Tool for Managing Resources in an Era of
Uncertainty
Leigh Welling Climate Change Coordinator Natural
Resource Stewardship Science National Park
Service
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Addressing long-term planning for climate change
can be a challenge when more immediate needs are
pressing
Long term, Im worried about global warming
Short term, about freezing my ass off.
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Scenario Planning as part of the Planning Toolkit
Figure from Peterson et al. Conservation
Biology Volume 17, No. 2, April 2003
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Scenario Planning

• Scenarios Are
• A tool for long-term strategic planning
• Compelling narratives of alternative environments
  in which decisions may be played out
• Coherent, internally consistent, and plausible

• Scenarios Are Not
• Predictions or Forecasts
• A method for arriving at the most likely future

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One Dimensional vs Scenario Planning
One-Dimensional Planning
Outcomes
A
B
C
D
Scenario Planning
Possible Futures
A
Elements Common to A-B
Elements Common to A-C
B
Elements Common to A-D
C
D
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Scenario Planning An Integration of Science and
Management
Analyze Internal Dynamics
Build Test Scenarios
Policy Screening
Define Focal Question
List External Drivers
Decision makers, scientists, topical experts
Decision makers
Scientists, topical experts

• Types of Scenarios ? different purposes

Strategic ? testing concepts and
models Exploratory ? moving into the future,
e.g., by extending past trends, considering
contingencies Anticipatory ? aiming toward
preferred futures and avoiding nightmares
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Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop
Joshua Tree National ParkNov 13-14, 2007
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Joshua Tree Scenarios
High precipitation events
When it Rains it Pours
Summer Soaker
Spring / summer
Winter
Dune
Low precipitation
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Joshua Tree NP Current Mojave Desert gt 900
meters in elevation
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Joshua Tree NP Plausible future Mojave Desert gt
1100 meters in elevation
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Joshua Tree NP under climate change Expansion
of Sonoran ecosystem
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Joshua Tree NP Summer Soaker Potential loss of
transitional environments
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How might climate change affect fire on the
landscape?
Joshua Tree NP Fires, 1967-2006 Approx. 40,000
acres burned
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Joshua Tree NP When it rains, it
pours Extensive conversion to non-native grasses
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Joshua Tree NP Dune Persistent and extensive
drought loss of woody species
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Joshua Tree NP Dune Increased erosion loss of
vegetative cover dune formation
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Policy/Management Questions

• Do you still have a park?
• How do these and other scenarios impact our
  mission?
• In what ways can we adapt?

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Common Themes Potential Management Actions

• Loss of Mojave Desert species and expansion of
  Sonoran
• For high priority species such as the Joshua
  Tree, park managers may consider relocation to
  higher elevations to assist in their survival
• Other actions might include research on hybrids
  strengthening seed banks and nurseries to support
  future restoration
• Increased size and severity of wildland fire
• Exploring different options for fire breaks on
  the landscape
• Invasion of non-native plants
• Prioritize increased funding to support staff
  efforts preventing spread of non-native species,
  esp grasses

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Traps in Scenario Planning

• Anchoring to details of a specific scenario
• ? important to focus on patterns (trends,
  thresholds, cascading events) rather than
  forecast values
• Keep in mind models can be too cautious as well
  as too extreme (e.g. sea level rise estimates)
• Scenarios as intensification of the present

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The real value of scenario planning may be in the
process

• Kleiner (1999) describes scenario-building
  exercises as conversations designed to help a
  group of people trick themselves to see past
  their own blind spots.
• For conservation, major benefits are
• (1) increased understanding of key
  uncertainties
• (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives
  into planning, and
• (3) improved capacity for adaptive management.

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The Good News People are starting to pay
attention!
Im starting to get concerned about global
warming.