Module 5'2

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Module 5.2

• Mitigation Methods and Tools in the Land-Use,
  Land-Use Change and Forestry Sectors

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Baseline and Mitigation Scenario Construction in
Forestry

• Land Availability
• Baseline Scenario
• Current trends for land-use and product
  consumption
• Common models for formulating baselines - FAC,
  LUCS, GEOMOD, CO2-fix, etc
• Mitigation Scenarios
• Technical Potential
• Programmatic
• End-use
• Achievable

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End-use Driven Scenarios

• 1. Simple Projection
• Per capita consumption, adjusted for income
• 2. Statistical Relationship
• Specify a consumption equation with few
  Independent Variables e.g.Consumption f
  (Population, Income, Price)
• 3. Econometric Analysis
• Specify a system of demand and supply equations
  for each product, including both endogenous and
  exogenous variables.
• Solve using appropriate technique, including
  statistical and/or optimization methods.
• In all cases the projected product consumption
  must be reconciled, in varying degrees of
  complexity, with forest land required to support
  the level of consumption

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Land Use Distribution Driving Factors

• A. Demographic variables
• population size, growth rate, rural/urban
  population and dependence on land resources.
• B. Economic factors
• income level, technological development,
  dependence on land-based exports, and rates of
  economic growth.
• C. Biophysical factors
• soil productivity, topography and climate.
• D. Intensity of Land use
• shifting versus permanent agriculture,
  clear-cutting versus selective harvesting/logging

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Land-use Distribution Models

• Process Models
• EPIC, CENTURY Forest-BGC
• Accounting Models
• GLOBC7/8, COPATH
• Socio-economic Accounting Models
• LUCS, GEOMOD, FAC

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GHG Flow Accounting Methods

• Ecosystem-wide tools
• Large area coverage models
• Project/activity methods

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Carbon Flows

• Broad Area Carbon Flows
• Specific Area Carbon Flows

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Types of Forestry Models

• Individual Tree Models
• Forest Gap Models
• Bio-geographical Models
• Ecosystem Process Models
• Terrestrial C Circulation Models
• Land-use Change Models
• Spreadsheet Models

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1. Individual Tree Models

• Simulate tree growth in tree-soil continuum.
• Photosynthesis f(H2O, light, nutrients, etc )
• No forest stand Dynamics
• e.g. TREGRO

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2. Forest Gap Models

• Simulates forest succession after a small canopy
  opening
• Based on empirical relationships
• Factors solar radiation, growing degree days,
  soil nutrients, water, seed dispersal, latitude,
  competition, etc.
• Simulate response to change in the environment
• E.g. FORTNITE, FORTNUT, LINKAGES, LOKI, etc
• Disadvantages
• requires species specific parameterization

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3. Bio-geographical Models

• Regional and Biome-wide models e.g. Holdridge
• New generation e.g. BIOME, CCVM, MAPPs,
• based on plant physiology responses
• Can simulate response to CO2 fertilization
• Disadvantages
• Work well for equilibrium conditions,
• not well suited for ecosystems in transition.

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4. Ecosystem Process Models

• Simulate plant energy dynamics at canopy level
• Based on Physiological and Ecosystem processes
• E.g. CENTURY, FOREST-BGC, GEM
• Disadvantages
• Data intensive.

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5. Terrestrial C Circulation Models

• Regional and global
• Simulate C dynamics under different climate
  scenarios
• E.g. PULSE, IMAGE
• The C-circulation module in IMAGE also simulates
  changes in land cover in each region
• Disadvantages
• Broad coverage, data intensive.

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6. Land-use Change Models

• Terrestrial Carbon Dynamic model capable of
  incorporating land use change.
• IMAGE includes socio-economic factors e.g. income
  population.

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7. Spreadsheet Models

• Accounting models which track carbon flows in
  forests
• Allows for forest type, country, biome or global
  aggregation
• Less data intensive than process models
• e.g. COPATH, GLOBC7/8
• Disadvantages
• Can not simulate climate change directly,
• Oversimplifies the functioning of the ecosystem

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Project/Activity Specific Carbon Accounting

• Applicable to specific type of mitigation
  activities such as conservation projects,
  bioenergy projects, reforestation / afforestation
  programs etc
• Accounting depends on the intended use of the
  biomass

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Estimating Carbon StorageThree Major Situations

• Standing Forests
• Forests Managed in Perpetual Rotations
• Vegetation Carbon
• Decomposing matter
• Soil Carbon
• Fate of Forest Products
• Conservation Forests

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1. Estimating Carbon Stock for a Standing Forest
(tC)

• Dry Biomass Density (tB/ha)
• BD SVASTADWWD
• where
• BD Biomass Density
• SV Stemwood Volume (m3/ha)
• AS Ratio of Above-ground to Stemwood Volume
  
• TA Ratio of Total to Above-ground biomass
• DW Dry to Wet Biomass Ratio
• WD Wood Density (t/m3)
• Total biomass includes that which is below
  ground
• Estimating Carbon Density (tC/ha)
• Carbon Density CC BD
• where
• CC Carbon Content of biomass ()
• CC is usually around 50 but varies with
  species.

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2 Estimating Carbon Stored by Forests Managed in
Perpetual Rotations

• Total carbon stored
• Land carbon Product carbon
• Land Carbon
• (Vegetation soil decomposing matter) Carbon
• Total Carbon storage in forests under perpertual
  rotations can be summarized as
• Carbon Stored per ha C(v)T/2 C(d)t/2
  C(s)T?(i_c )pin_i/2
• where
• - C(v) vegetation carbon C(d) carbon in
  detritus C(s) soil organic carbon
• T Rotation period in years i_c carbon in
  product i pi proportion of biomass in product
  i n_i lifetime of product i in years.

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2a. Vegetation Carbon

• For the plantation response option, consider that
  the plantation is operated in rotations for an
  indefinite time period. This would ensure that at
  least 1/2 the carbon sequestered by an individual
  plot is stored away indefinitely.
• The formula for estimating the amount of carbon
  stored per ha is
• Vegetation Carbon Stored per ha cvT/2
• where
• cv average annual net carbon sequestered per
  hectare
• T rotation period
• This formula is identical to the vegetation C
  components above

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2b. Decomposing Matter

• The decomposing biomass on land creates a stock
  of carbon.
• In perpetual rotations it adds to
• Decomposed Matter C stored per ha cdt/2
• where
• cd average annual C/ha left to decompose
• t decomposition period

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2c. Soil Carbon

• Soil Carbon stored per ha csT
• where
• cs Increase in soil carbon/ha
• T Rotation period

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2d. Fate of Forest Products

• If the forest products are renewed continually,
  they store carbon indefinitely.
• Amount stored depends on product life. The amount
  stored over an infinite horizon will increase
  with product life according to the formula
• Carbon stored in products per ha sum ?
  (cpi)n_i
• Where
• cpi amount of C stored/ha in product i
• ni life of product i
• Assumes instantaneous decomposition or disposal
  at the end of its use.

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3. Carbon Stored by Conservation Forests

• Total Stored Carbon Vegetation Carbon Soil
  Carbon
• where
• Vegetation carbon cv T T Forest
  Biological Maturity
• Soil carbon cs t t period for soil carbon
  equilibrium

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Review of Framework and Conclusion

• COMAP Approach Revisited
• Cost Benefit Analysis
• Example of Mitigation Assessment
• Issues, short comings, and suggestions

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COMAP

• Mitigation Assessment Framework
• Objective To identify the least expensive way
  of providing forest products and services to the
  country, while reducing the most amount of GHGs
  emitted or increasing carbon sequestered in the
  land use change and forestry sector

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COMAP Flow Chart
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Cost-Benefit Analysis

• Unit Costs and Benefits
• Monetary, non-monetary and intangible
• Critical Issues
• Discount rates
• Opportunity Cost
• Multiplier effects (including leakage)

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Cost-Effectiveness Indicators

• Initial Cost per ha per tC
• Present value of cost per ha per tC
• Net Present Value (NPV) per ha per tC.
• Benefit of Reducing Atmospheric Carbon (BRAC)
• The indicator refers to net benefits

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Cost-Effectiveness Indicators1. Initial Cost
per ha per tC

• Includes initial costs only.
• Does not include future discounted investments
  needed during the rotation period.
• Can provide useful information on the amount of
  resources required at the beginning to establish
  the project.

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Cost-Effectiveness Indicators2. Present value
of cost per ha per tC

• The sum of initial cost and the discounted value
  of all future investment and recurring costs
  during the lifetime of the project.
• For rotation projects, it is assumed that the
  costs of second and subsequent rotations would be
  paid for by revenues from preceding rotations.
• Also referred to as endowment cost because it
  provides an estimate of present value of
  resources necessary to maintain the project for
  its duration.

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Cost-Effectiveness Indicators 3. Net Present
Value (NPV) per ha per tC

• Provides the net discounted value of non-carbon
  benefits to be obtained from the project.
• For most plantation and managed forests this
  should be positive at a reasonable discount rate.
  
• For options such as forest protection, the NPV
  indicator is also positive if indirect benefits
  and forest value are included, both of which are
  subject to controversial evaluation.
• Different computations are necessary depending on
  scheme of project implementation.

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Cost-Effectiveness Indicators4. Benefit of
Reducing Atmospheric Carbon (BRAC)

• This indicator is an estimate of the net benefit
  of reducing atmospheric carbon instead of
  reducing net emissions.
• It expresses the NPV of a project in terms of the
  amount of atmospheric carbon reduced, taking into
  account the timing of emission reduction and the
  atmospheric residence of the emitted carbon.
• The formulation of the indicator varies with the
  rate at which economic damage might increase.

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Macroeconomic Implications

• 1. Direct Effects
• Resource Reallocation (local, national,
  international).
• Changed Output eg timber, beef etc
• Effect on the price vector
• 2. Indirect Effects
• Forward and Backward Linkages
• Factor employment, multiplier effects
• 3. External Impacts
• Imports and Exports
• balance of payments, etc.

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Implementation Policies

• 1. Forestry Policies
• Forest Protection and Conservation Policies
• Shared responsibilities and control of resources
• Timber Harvesting Concessions
• Tax rebates and incentives for adopting
  efficiency improvements
• Aggressive afforestation and reforestation
  policies
• Others policies
• 2. Non-Forest Policies
• Land tenure private vs. public ownerships
• Agricultural and rural development
• Infrastructural development policies eq. hydro,
  roads,
• General Taxes, credits, and pricing policies
• Other policies

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Barriers and Incentives for Implementation

• 1. Technical and Personnel Barriers
• Availability of data
• Skills
• 2. Financial and Resource Barriers
• Competition for funding among sectors
• competition for resources e.g. land
• Identification of beneficiaries, cost bearer, etc
• 3. Institutional and Policy Barriers
• Land tenure and law
• Central, regional and local institutions
• Marketing, pricing, tariffs, quotas, etc

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COMAP Shortcomings

• The framework is static
• Inter-sectoral interactions are not explicitly
  accounted for
• Focuses on point estimates instead of a range
• Does not cover the change in ranking of
  Mitigation options at different levels of
  implementation