Futuring

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Futuring

• AEE 505
• Adapted from a presentation by Carrie Weir (2002)

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But First...
Are You a Futurist??

• Assess Your Futures Quotient (FQ)
• Take Michael Pattons FQ Test
• Calculate Your FQ Score
• Interpret Your FQ Score

Source Michael Patten
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Interpreting Your FQ
Interpreting Your FQ
61 or higher Potential Futurist Marathoner.
51- 60 Long-Distance Enthusiast.

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Interpreting FQ Cont.
41- 50 Recreational Futurist Runner.
31- 40 Out of Shape.
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Interpreting FQ Cont.
21-30 Slow Mover.
Under 21 Couch Potato.
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What is Futuring??

• Future means
• Describing an event yet to happen
• Due to happen
• Futuring means
• Predicting what will happen in the future
• Based on current and past trends and issues

Source Webster
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Bifocal Vision

• IsThe ability to perceive accurately things
  happening out on the horizon that will inevitably
  effect (X), as well as the ability to focus on
  the more immediate, pressing eventsKarl Albrecht

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Planning vs. Futuring

• Planning
• Defining outcomes goals
• Determining actions
• Committing resources
• Aiming at a defined target

• Futuring
• Monitoring critical indicators
• Managing event
• Exploiting trends
• Riding out shock waves

Source Watts Wacker
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Planning vs. Futuring

• Futuring is the process of deciding how to
  behave based on what is happening in the
  immediate and near-future environment, planning
  is the translation of that decision into
  manageable actionsKarl Albrecht

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Formula for Success
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Trending

• Analyzing tendencies and ramifications

• Accomplished through research or surveying
• Direction of the trend/issue
• Time involved in development of trend/issue
• Then data is analyzed using positive/negative
  effects
• The future will be an extension of the past

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Cross Impact Analysis

• Showing how situations interact

• Gives the ability to see how one situation will
  impact another
• Very simple matrix which incorporates several
  trends/issues

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Cross Impact Matrix
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Scenario Writing

• Describing where we are headed

• A story constructed to clarify a future view
• Tells the direction we are going
• How we are going to get there
• Not to be confused with science fiction

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Extension Forecasts

• Give programs to private agencies
• 4-H will become part of a private program
• Future programs given to interdisciplinary teams

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Ext. Forecasts Cont.

• Independent Contractors/job sharing
• Administrators Contract Administrators
• Program Directors Grant Directors
• Home and virtual offices

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Ext. Forecasts Cont.

• Field staff will need PhD's
• Target population change and increase
• Cooperative partnership will die causing
• No federal funding
• Less county funding

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Education Forecasts

• On-line all over the world
• Increased competition for traditional
  institutions
• Trade a book for digital personal display

Source National Council of Ag. Ed.
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ED. Forecasts Cont.

• Conversational literacy of agriculture
• Access to life-ling instruction of agricultural
• Broaden programs and educate all learners

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ED. Forecasts Cont.

• Teacher will need to be more educated than today
• More forceful, outgoing, involved and informed
• Will become interlocked with states and
  universities
• Teaching system includes early childhood and
  continues throughout adult life

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World Forecasts
Between now and the year 2050

• 95 of industrialized world on-line (2010)
• 50 of developing countries on-line (2010)
• Insect-like robots for crop pollination (2012)
• Biometric scanning replaces ID cards (2015)

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World Forecasts Cont.

• Nanobots in toothpaste to attack plaque (2020)
• Thought recognition as everyday input means
  (2025)
• First bionic Olympics (2030)
• Emotion-control chips to control criminals (2030)
  
• A small Moon base village is built (2040)
• Wearable computer with all the options (2050)

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Futuring in Our Lives

• Futuring is a topic in and of itself
• It also includes many areas in our lives
• Specifically, it relates to our class
• Commonalities among the trends and issues weve
  discussed

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These are all interrelated
and effect our future.
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The Art of Importance

• Futuring helps to shape our society
• Planning is essential for success in the future
• The past and present are important to compare
• Futuring is our path to empowerment

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Final Thoughts...

• If you dont make a vision for your future, then
  more than likely your future gets dictated to
  you.
• -Watts Wacker