ASEAN, Japan,

1
ASEAN, Japan, China
2
Historical legacy (1942 - 1945)

• Japan occupied the whole Southeast Asia

3
Japans Appeal in WWII

• Japans appeal to Southeast Asia during World War
  II
• Economic benefits
• Japanese model for economic development since the
  Meiji Restoration of 1868
• Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere
• Anti-colonialism
• Asia for the Asians
• nationalist movements

4
Co-Prosperity Sphere

• Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere
• Japans economic foreign policy During World War
  II
• Absorption of the economies of all occupied
  countries
• Extraction of resources to fuel the war against
  the Allies

5
Consequence of WWII

• How did Southeast Asia change?
• Decline of Western colonial power
• Decline of the myth of European superiority
• Rise in
• Southeast Asian independence movements
• Japanese interests and influence in Southeast
  Asia
• US interests and influence in Southeast Asia
• Integration into global economy community

6
Japan Returns (1950s)

• US strategy concerning Japan
• dynamo of wider regional recovery in Free Asia
• contain Communism
• Closure of China market to Japan in 1950s and
  1960s
• Japans economic dependence on US
• materials and markets of Southeast Asia

7
Japan Southeast Asia 1

• Japans economic diplomacy in ASEAN
• bilateral trade promotion economic linkage
• gt1/4 of ASEANs total trade was with Japan
• Japan invest more in ASEAN than US
• Asian Development Bank (established in 1966)
• avoid taking any political initiative
• 1974 anti-Japanese demonstrations during
  Japanese Prime Ministers visit

8
ASEAN Attitudes

• Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew said in
  1969
• My generation and that of my elders cannot
  forget WWII as long as we live
• The policy of our government is not to allow
  the unhappy experiences of the past to inhibit us
  from a policy which can enhance our growth rates
  by Japanese participation

9
P.R.C. and ASEAN 1

• In 1960s, Mao supported communist insurgencies in
  Southeast Asia
• PRC-ASEAN relations were damaged by Maos
  policies during Cultural Revolution
• changes in 1970s
• PRC domestic policies became less radical
• U.S. President Nixon visited Beijing and Shanghai

10
Japan Southeast Asia 2

• Anti-Japanese demonstrations of 1974
• Fall of South Vietnam in 1975
• Japan began taking an active interest in the
  political affairs of Southeast Asia
• from bilateral relations to focus on ASEAN

11
Japans Reaction to 1978

• 1978 Vietnam invaded Cambodia
• threatened Japans economic interests
• Japan maintained a dialogue with Vietnam
• Japans reaction
• aligned with US-ASEAN-PRC camp
• halted economic assistance to Vietnam
• called for Vietnam to withdrew all troops from
  Cambodia

12
P.R.C. and ASEAN 2

• US relationship with PRC normalized in 1979
• US-PRC alignment in opposing the spread of Soviet
  influence in Southeast Asia
• ASEAN-PRC alignment in opposing Vietnam
• PRC started reform and opening in 1979
• trade and economic ties with ASEAN gained
  importance

13
ASEANs Attitude to Japan

• Distrust remained but reduced
• Fears of Japans imperialist tendencies remained
  but reduced

14
ASEAN-Japan Econ. Links

• Economic links strengthened
• ASEAN countries development programs needed
  Japans support and investment
• Japan as an economic model and partner
• Malaysias Look East
• Laos and Singapores Learn from Japan
• Complementary economies of Southeast Asia and
  Japan

15
(No Transcript)
16
Japan Southeast Asia 3

• Since the end of the Cold War
• Japan redefined its role in international affairs
  after the Cold War
• Japan-ASEAN relationship strengthened
• greater interactions
• ASEAN as a region and as an institution
• Japans deeper involvement in regional affairs
• more politically engaged

17
Japans Political Role

• 1990 Tokyo Conference on Cambodia
• 1992 Japan sent 1,800 troops as UN peacekeeping
  forces to Cambodia
• since 1994 active participant in regional
  multilateral arrangements such as ASEAN Regional
  Forum (ARF)
• since 1997 political/security dialogues with
  Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia

18
ASEAN Receptiveness

• Malaysia Prime Minister Mahathir said in 1991
• As we approach the year 2000, it is our hope
  that Japan will initiate changes in its policies
  that will effectively bring about an enhanced
  political, socio-cultural role in not only the
  Southeast Asia region but also in the global
  context

19
Diminishing Role of History

• After the Cold War
• Increasing economic interdependence between Japan
  Southeast Asia
• Fear of Japanese remilitarization reduced
• Generation change
• China threat

20
Rise of China

• Chinas Reform Opening-up policy
• Increasing presence in Southeast Asia
• Expanding trade
• Political relations and influence
• visits by leaders and summit meetings
• substantive agreements on issues ranging from
  trade to military cooperation
• by 1991 PRC has normalized relations with all the
  ASEAN member states

21
Growing Regionalism (A3)

• 1995 Asia-Europe Meeting in Bangkok
• ASEAN asked Japan, China, South Korea to join
  as Asian representatives
• Japan feared alienating US China
• US Australian reservations about a regional
  grouping in Pacific Asia
• impact on the success of APEC
• possible division of global economy

22
(No Transcript)
23
ASEAN3 Summit

• China Japan compete for regional leadership
  position
• ASEAN3 summit has taken place at each of the
  ASEAN summit since 1997
• regular ASEAN3 meetings of finance economic
  ministers

24
Asian Financial Crisis (97)

• Japans role in Southeast Asia
• contribution of funds and initiatives
• emergency financial assistance
• aid plan for regional human resource development
• cooperation in information technology sector
• inaction on banking reforms
• ineffective economic stimulus measures
• ASEAN urged faster action to help recovery

25
Asian Financial Crisis (97)

• Chinas role
• refrained from devaluing yuan
• contribution of funds and initiatives
• entry into World Trade Organization (2001)
• ASEAN-PRC Free Trade Area (2001)
• threatens Japans economic leadership in
  Southeast Asia

26
2001 ASEAN Summit

• China and ASEAN formally announced intention to
  start talks on establishing a free-trade zone
  within 10 years
• South Korea proposed an ASEAN3 free-trade area
• Possibility of establishing an ASEAN3 secretariat

27
2002 ASEAN Summit

• China
• forgave the debts of Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and
  Myanmar
• duty-free privileges for exports of the least
  developed members of ASEAN
• signed declaration on South China Sea
• signed framework agreement for ASEAN-PRC FTA
  beginning in 2010

28
Japan

• Japan signed its first-ever free-trade agreement
  (with Singapore) in 2002

29
(No Transcript)
30
(No Transcript)
31
Conclusions

• ASEAN3 have considerable potential
• APEC may be too broad
• ASEAN may be too narrow
• Contested regional leadership position between
  Japan and China
• Japan the most advanced economy in Asia
• Chinas momentum